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Austrian Economics: A peek behind the mask

It isn’t what people think it is. It was established by some with an agenda to get rid of the Federal Reserve and is a means to an end, not an end in itself.  It is why they have no concrete plans to get from point A to point B and their theories are incomplete, no comprehension of supply/demand issues affecting prices, particularly that of money itself, for example.   I can’t say how many times I’ve asked Austrian economists how we get from what we have now to what they want without a lot of chaos and people getting caught with their assets hanging out and heard nothing but crickets. They can talk for hours about how evil the Federal Reserve is, but have little to say in specifics about what things would be like without it, how to get there, or what the process of getting there would be like for the economy as a whole.  To me, these things are important to know to be able to put some thought toward them before being able to judge it on its merits.

In the absence of a mapped vision, I’m left filling in the intellectual blanks; and from what I can tell, there is quite a bit of rhetoric and anti-Fed propaganda wrapped in libertarian principles to make it palatable. Perhaps the desire to get rid of the Fed is consistent with the purported political principles behind it, but the rhetoric produces some ideological paradoxes that leave me wondering whether there is a Trojan horse of ultra-conservative statism hiding in it.

Their tendency to oversimplify things to where every price change has something to do with the Federal Reserve, which simply is not true, cast some doubt in my mind about how serious they are about economic stability.  This is intellectual dishonesty that is detrimental in form,  getting the public angry about the wrong things and we can’t fix price issues in the broader economy that are caused by public policy/regulatory issues if the real causes of them are obscured by misdirection.  But even more than that, in a broader ideological sense, it’s the things they don’t say that are implied by what they do that need to be sorted through and scrutinized before buying the whole thing as gospel. They say things without saying them and get away with it pretty much scot free because people don’t seem to notice the ideological paradox created by the actual meanings.

One of the best examples of this I can think of is the Austrian assessment of the housing and mortgage crises. That was almost entirely a regulatory debacle. The government was incentivizing behavior that it couldn’t get out of the markets otherwise, yet they hound on interest rates and easy money as being the cause, as if people cannot be trusted to do with their own money and credit what they will.

Thinking about that deeper than the surface, who is to say that low interest rates and easy money don’t produce productive investments absent regulatory incentives into ‘irrational exuberance’? These are never things we hear about in the midst of a crisis and so it is impossible to weigh the bad versus the good, and they take advantage of that bias of information with the fallacy of composition. There is not one shred of evidence that easy money causes bad behavior when people are left to weigh all investments on equal footing, without government interference.

Even if people cannot be trusted to do the right things with their money, there is no way to do anything about that in a free society. Really, do the Austrians propose that we should replace the Fed with an investment Gestapo that is equipped to make value judgments for each individual investment? I think that would be worse than the Fed. Or maybe scarcity of money is best approach. If we don’t have it to throw around, we can’t do bad things with it. Either way, it is a violation of principle that suggests paternalism of a different stripe is better. The scarcity idea is even more of a loaded proposition if there is a desire to foster a society of self-sufficiency as a main goal because putting a cap on how much money there can be not only puts a cap on government, but it also puts a cap on the economy at large and there is an opportunity cost to doing that as opposed to allowing expansion at a steady rate through possibly NGDP level targeting; that leads to a market driven approach to expansion. There would have to be reform in the financial regulatory structure so that government can’t distort investment markets, and that would have to be done first, even if we took everything the Austrians say at face value.

For another example, some of them have said that the economy of the 80’s was an illusion of prosperity, an inflation-filled, artificial boom. Oh really? In order to accept that premise, one has to agree to toss Milton Friedman, supply-side economics, and Reaganism under the bus for the frauds they are. Really, isn’t that what these Austrians are saying without actually saying it? Either Friedman and/or Reagan were full of crap or these Austrians are because both situations cannot be true simultaneously. Can’t tell you which is true beyond the shadow of a doubt, but there are plenty of inconsistencies in rhetoric on the part of the Austrians and not much in the way of empirical evidence to prove their points, while there is reams of evidence MV=PY and the AS/AD model are true.

From my perspective, it really is just much easier to tell the truth, not only about what is really being said, but what the intentions behind them really are. Because these ideas have been packaged the way they have been, couched in contradiction and bits of truth stretched like taffy, I really don’t put that much weight toward it. I would rather be content as I was in the 80s than throw that possibility away for things that I can already tell are probably not in our best interests.

COMMENTS

  • conservativerock5

    You can find a wealth of lectures by great intellectual thinkers here: http://www.youtube.com/user/misesmedia/videos

    Austrians teach that central planning always leads to distortions in the market, some more extreme than the other. They do not simply attack the Federal Reserve, indeed the school of economic thought long preceded it, they attack all forms of central planning. Austrians teach that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, and that this causes wealth depreciation, and they teach that credit expansion can lead to bubbles. Austrians advocate a return to Free Banking, which proved to be a superior system then today’s model, despite the myths by the Keynesians.

    On the housing bubble-the Austrians do not discard the other aspects of the situation, including Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Ginnie Mae, but they assert those aspects caused the bubble to grow larger and pop faster.

    On the Federal Reserve-One does not have to fundamentally agree on the specifics of monetary economics in order to agree on the Federal Reserve. Two of the greatest economists of the last century, Chicago economists Milton Friedman and Thomas Sowell, did indeed advocate that the Federal Reserve should not exist. Friedman gradually developed this view and embraced it later in life, though he never came up for much of a replacement idea himself. Sowell has called the Federal Reserve a “cancer”, and pointed out that you do not replace a cancer. Sowell also pointed out that ever since the Federal Reserve has been created, it has failed its purpose: the dollar has declined in value by around 95-97% and bank failures have been much worse since the central bank was enacted. This is due to moral hazard.

    I think you are shortchanging the school. People like Mises, Hazlitt, Hayek, and Rothbard were great minds, and influenced conservatives and libertarians to this day.

  • demsaresatanic

    it certainly is not what you think it is either. Your idea that

    “It was established by some with an agenda to get rid of the Federal Reserve and is a means to an end, not an end in itself,”

    is complete nonsense. For a definition that bears some resemblance to fact try here,
    http://www.economist.com/economics-a-to-z

  • quill67

    1) Agree, from what I’ve seen, that there are holes in Austrian monetary theory.
    2) Disagree that there are not some serious plans about how to remove the Fed (although not that I know of from the Austrians) For example, although I am not sure I like his approach, see Richard H. Timberlake’s Monetary Policy in the United States: An Intellectual and Institutional History.
    3) While I believe conservative and libertarians may agree that in the long run that the quantity theory of money holds (MV=PY), they argue that increases in the money supply may not distribute evenly throughout the economy (or world) in the short run. For example, there is evidence that increases in our money supply ended up providing greater credit in South America (and elsewhere in the world) and that this is partly responsible for the run up in commodity prices for food and oil as these countries’ demand for these goods increases. The fear, of course, is that the growth in these economies cannot be sustained.

    I will also add that there is evidence that oil producing countries oil production decisions depend upon their expectations of inflation and current interest rates. If oil producing countries expect prices to be higher in the future than today, this gives them an incentive to withhold output to capitalize on the future higher prices, and if interest rates are low, the reward to pulling out oil today to earn a return is also low so again they withhold output. This drives up current oil prices while it may have less effect on other prices throughout the economy.

    4) The assessment of the mortgage crisis by the Austrians may be correct but incomplete. The idea of many economists (not just Austrians) is that the Fed, in leading up to the current crisis, put too much money into the economy (by keeping Fed Funds rates too low for too long) Austrians would argue that the Fed has a history of doing this and creating bubbles. Before the housing bubble, they would point to dot-com bubble. The difference, in my mind, between the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble is that at least with the dot-com bubble the nation gained some very successful, profitable companies. So while investors lost money on many companies, the companies that were created out of this process and the value they create outweighed the losses. (This supports your argument that who is to say ‘easy money doesn’t produce productive investments’) In housing, this was not the case. Losses outweighed gains.

    5) You say: “There is not one shred of evidence that easy money causes bad behavior when people are left to weigh all investments on equal footing, without government interference.” This statement is clearly in error. There is a lot of evidence that people’s decisions are changed by easy money policies. For example, bankers. Bankers can potentially leverage their relatively small investments into very large gains by using depositor money. Easy money policies increase their incentive to try and gamble these extra funds on risky loans because their losses are capped to only their initial investment. Consider the S&L crisis.

    6) Austrians do trust people to make decisions with their own money. The problem is that when the Fed increases the money supply, the increase goes to the banking system which may, as described above, not lend the money appropriately given significant moral hazard issues.

    7) I would agree with you that the Austrians and Libertarians are making the Fed out to be the boogeyman. For example, they complain that the Fed provided loans to banks with liquidity issues. This is exactly how the private sector institutions that preceded the Fed, the Clearinghouse Associations, would have acted. So it is OK for the private sector Clearinghouse Associations to provide liquidity but not for the Fed to do the same?

    Thanks for interesting post.