There will be much debate in the morning about whether or not the bad results for Democrats in the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey – both states where Barack Obama campaigned for the Democrat and the Democrat sought to join himself at the hip with Obama – reflect public anger at Obama and his Administration. This is an interesting debate, but let us not miss a critical point:
Obama tried to help Deeds and Corzine, and was unable to do so. He can help nobody but himself. And that fact alone is hugely significant.
Democrats will point to exit polls showing that Obama retains a healthy approval rating among those who went to the polls in today’s two battleground states. But one of the signal exit poll items was pointed out by Jake Tapper: in NJ, which Obama carried by 15 points a year ago, 19% of the voters told exit pollsters they were casting ballots in support of Obama, and 20% against. In other words, even in a very pro-Obama electorate, he was a small net drag on the Democratic candidate, and certainly no help despite campaigning ardently for Jon Corzine.
This is consistent with what we’ve seen nationally: Obama remains personally popular (if far less so than on his Inauguration Day, which remains the high point of his presidency), but his popularity doesn’t rub off on his policies, much less on other Democrats, especially white male Democrats like Deeds and Corzine who have no claim to being historic symbols of national progress. The record turnout among racial-minority and youth voters generated by the 2008 Obama campaign was not replicable in 2009 without his personal presence on the ballot. And of course, the same will be true in 2010, when Obama himself is not personally on the ballot and will again make every effort to explain helpfully to other Democrats that they lost their jobs for reasons unrelated to his precious historic personal popularity.
The revelation that Obama cannot help other Democrats get elected is, of course, bound to affect his ability to govern; he can’t convince wavering “Blue Dog” Democrats that supporting him in return for his campaign appearances in their districts will do any more for them than it did for Jon Corzine or Creigh Deeds. But then, so long as people like Barack Obama, maybe it doesn’t matter so much to him if he actually accomplishes anything. After all, he is “change.” Just don’t expect a lot of Democratic incumbents to consider that a bankable asset in the future.
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
it will now
fotophun Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:05PM EST (link)be interesting to see who will want to be seen with this so called President
I predict..
cableguymn Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:06PM EST (link)no one.
It seems personality cults make lousy
Tbone (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:07PM EST (link)political parties.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Ask Ross Perot
Darin_H (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:13PM EST (link)He was lousy as/at both.
A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls
^^^5555.
spainishirish (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:13PM EST (link)nt
You nailed it, Crank. Obama already has consigned many Blue Dogs to political death with Cap and Trade,
spainishirish (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:12PM EST (link)and he apparently cannot do anything to help them. The GOP has done an excellent job at recruitment, the economy (unfortunately) apparently will be in the tank for another year, and Obama’s radicalism has alarmed even Independents. I imagine national healthcare’s odds are down significantly tonight.
The bottom line is that if Obama can’t pull Corzine across the finish line in New Jersey, he can’t salvage a Blue Dog in the South. The only downside to tonight is that the Blue Dog knows it–but that may be offset by a previous vote for Cap and Trade.
Great victory overall
gonzo55 (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:31PM EST (link)Hoffman hurts a little bit, but honestly, despite his truly wonderful conservative credentials, he wasn’t the most telegenic candidate. What I see as the story tonight is an overwhelming repudiation of the Obama Presidency. I predict in the coming weeks these so-called moderate democrats like Nelson, Lieberman, Johnson, Burris, etc are going to come around on health care so fast after seeing governorships held by the libs since the beginning of the decade go RED. I don’t think it’d be going out on a limb to say that Heath Shuler is going to vote against ANY health care bill, or he is going to be the shortest-tenured congressman in history! How can we see this election night other than as a referendum on the Maoist and incompetent Supreme Leader Obama?
“Facts are stubborn things” — Ronald Wilson Reagan
obama chickens are coming home
bobojake (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:45PM EST (link)to roost. Let us keep up the hard work and we can throw all his thugs out in 2010 that are up for relection and send him packing in 2010. The first Lame Duck President after 11 months 29 days.
With ObamaCare 'Slipping' Past It's Deadline
OccamsRazor (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:52PM EST (link)Democrats are essentially telling Obama he’s on HIS own as well.
Obama's way out of his depth and doesn't know it
clowngirl (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:52PM EST (link)Obama is where he is today largely because of timing. In 2008, he happened to be the product that suited the mood of the moment. IMHO his political skills are often vastly over-rated. He has a very specialized skill set that was useful in getting to the Presidency but will often be counterproductive from here on out, Obama is too arrogant to realize his limitations and doesn’t have the breadth of understanding to adapt.
For example: as a community organizer, Obama became an expert at exploiting the anger of the disenfranchised.
In 2008 bashing Bush was THE poltical hot button and Obama’s experience served him extremely well but what plays in the role of opposition party does not play in the role of incumbent. Obama came to power by blaming everything on Republicans and he’s still doing it…despite being (arguably) more thoroughly in power than any American President in history.
The playbook he developed in Chicago seems to be all he’s got – and it’s going to come to hurt him more and more.
We’ve already seen in backfiring but Obama can’t seem to change tactics. Obama extraordinarily misread the country when he indulged in gratuitous greivance mongering re: the Gates arrest. As Rush pointed out, the question wasn’t a surprise- Obama was prepared and it was the one part of the press conference he really got fired up about.
It’s pretty clear Obama thought exploitig racial tension would HELP him rather than sending his numbers plummeting. He hasn’t got the message he’s still trying to create phony grievances – against Fox News, against Republicans who don’t agree with his health plan etc.
Obama used his big, ultra hyped healthcare speech to try and blame Republicans and peddle the same old lies. He used all his rhetoric, made the most of the bully pulpit and the result was that within a week healthcare had less support than ever.
He misread the Olympic bid, The Russians. There are so many examples to prove Obama is absurdly out of his depth and slow if not incapable of changing course.
One Termer - nt
OccamsRazor (Diary) Wednesday, November 4th at 12:05AM EST (link).
Yes, he could be... The One (termer). nt
redneck_hippie (Diary) Wednesday, November 4th at 12:12AM EST (link)ha ha :) nt
clowngirl (Diary) Wednesday, November 4th at 1:43AM EST (link)I wouldn't really call it 'debate,' certainly there will be
The_Gadfly (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:54PM EST (link)outlandish attempts at ‘spin,’ but I rather doubt it could even be called a conversation, much less a debate. Either of those two require an exchange of ideas, which will be missing from tomorrow’s analysis.
Ironically, as I write this it looks like we will lose the pickup in NY23, but for reasons of local politics, will win the NJ race most of only dreamed we could win. In the end the corruption of the Dem machine in NJ was simply too much for voters to endure any longer. Equally ironically, The Big 0 was trapped into supporting Corzine because he couldn’t afford to lose VA, NY23, and NJ. Losing all three is embarrassing, especially NJ. So he went and wound up embarrassed anyway, because he had now put his prestige on the line and lost. Sort of like he did with the Olympics. And the missile shield. And getting Soviet, I mean Russian cooperation to thwart Iran’s nuclear missile ambitions. And like SNL observed he had done with “Don’t ask, don’t tell.” Maybe there’s a pattern there. And just maybe blue dogs should pay attention to that pattern.
Its over fox calls it for owens-nt
DONTREADONME (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:56PM EST (link)Its over fox calls it for owens-nt
DONTREADONME (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:56PM EST (link)No Matter....
Bobcat51 Wednesday, November 4th at 12:06AM EST (link)what the result is in NY23, Doug has fought a great fight and had it not been for the spoiler in Dede Scozzafava things may have been different, there are a lot of absentee votes to be counted so not over by a long chalk.
Doug Hoffman came in late, had the guts to throw his hat in the ring and gave it is all, we should all be proud of Doug. Conservatism won tonight, the Republican leadership has had a shot across its bow and a wake up call on vetting candidates.
Steele and company are on notice; get your act together because we are going to keep you honest.
Remember, there are a lot more Doug Hoffman’s out there, we have only just stirred, wait until 2010.
‘Tis better to have fought and lost, Than never to have fought at all.
Thank you Doug Hoffman.
The left wing intent is to destroy the existing society and replace it with a society of its own design.
He can't help them get re'elected
tennreps (Diary) Wednesday, November 4th at 12:31AM EST (link)but he can surely help them get un-elected!
They bettr take note, because conservatives from all over will put forth both effort and money to get the right person in office. One who will vote against these crazy bills put forth by the dems.
Meanwhile, supporters of gay marriage *wanted* Obama to campaign for them, but instead he shunned them.
SoFiMil (Diary) Wednesday, November 4th at 1:07AM EST (link)Let us be perfectly clear: Our Dear Leader loves to “talk the talk,” but not “walk the walk.” Obama opted-out and voted “present.” It will be interesting to see whether liberals hold Obama accountable for losing traditional marriage ballot issues in Maine and (possibly) the State of Washington.
www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com
Its the one year itch..
lowndes Wednesday, November 4th at 8:37AM EST (link)We all knew the true test would come with his polices rather than his speeches, for me though I’m still prepared to cut him some slack and remain undecided.
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