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    Second Florida Poll Of The Day Shows Rubio Closer To Trump

    Second Florida Poll Of The Day Shows Rubio Closer To Trump

    This morning’s Quinnipiac Poll of Florida, a poll of 705 likely Florida voters, was ugly for Marco Rubio and absolutely fatal for Ted Cruz and the also-rans, showing Donald Trump up 44-28 on Rubio, Cruz way back at 12%, and the two minor candidates combining for 11%. But a new poll is out that shows the race tighter than all that. The Associated Industries of | Read More »

    New National Poll of Hispanics: Rubio Popular, Trump Hated

    New National Poll of Hispanics: Rubio Popular, Trump Hated

    It’s hard to overstate how many different ways we have evidence staring us in the face that Marco Rubio is a strong general election candidate and Donald Trump a disastrous one, but here’s another. The Washington Post and Univision have a joint poll out this morning of 1,200 Hispanic registered voters nationwide, 52% of them American-born and 24% Mexican-born. For the optimist, the good news | Read More »

    Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

    Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls

    One of the ugliest aspects of the Trump for President phenomenon – which anyone who’s been on Twitter can attest to – is how the white supremacists (or “alt-right” or “white nationalists” or whatever they call themselves) have rallied around Trump and swarm against anyone who threatens him. The Washington Post has detailed how these groups view the Trump campaign as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for | Read More »

    The Vindication of Rick Perry

    The Vindication of Rick Perry

    Nevada GOP Caucus Looks Like A Voter Fraud Bonanza

    Nevada GOP Caucus Looks Like A Voter Fraud Bonanza

    When the smoke all clears, we will be reviewing the vote counts from the Nevada Caucus as if it was a legitimate election. But the buzz on Twitter from people on the ground suggests that it is anything but. For some background, Nevada politics is amazingly crooked, to the point that one might criticize The Godfather movies for having an unduly naive picture of the | Read More »

    The Ted Cruz Campaign Will Win Or Lose By March 6

    The Ted Cruz Campaign Will Win Or Lose By March 6

    Many things about this campaign have been unfair, but are no less real for being unfair. One is that the primary calendar is not evenly distributed. As I have argued for months now, the front-loading of states favorable to Ted Cruz in the first week of March is both an opportunity and a challenge for Cruz. Now, the hour of peril is here. If ever | Read More »

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    ‘Amnesty’ Is A Majority Position With Republican Primary Voters

    'Amnesty' Is A Majority Position With Republican Primary Voters

    Sometimes it is useful to get out of the echo chamber of arguments on the internet among partisans and look at the data. And the data we have from the primary exit polling so far is telling us that, among voters in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries (both won by Donald Trump), some form of ‘amnesty’ for illegal aliens is a majority position. | Read More »

    South Carolina By The Numbers

    South Carolina By The Numbers

    Saturday’s South Carolina primary wasn’t exactly what the polls predicted, but it was something of a Goldilocks result: neither good enough nor bad enough for any of the top three candidates to be decisive. With 47 states plus DC and five territories to go, we have a long march still ahead of us. The Polls: Rubio’s Iowa Redux The final poll averages had Donald Trump | Read More »

    Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

    Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

    As we await the results from today’s voting in South Carolina, it’s worth revisiting some lessons from the last three contested Republican primaries in South Carolina. To start with, as I noted yesterday, turnout has been wildly variable in past South Carolina GOP primaries, and the state has been so decisive in part because every winner except John McCain in 2008 has won by a | Read More »

    New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

    New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

    Tomorrow’s Republican primary in South Carolina could provide some big surprises, if you believe some of the latest polls. The most dramatic is a new poll from Opinion Savvy showing that Marco Rubio might be in striking distance of longtime frontrunner Donald Trump. Of course, you should take any poll with a grain of salt, and there’s a flurry of them telling us different things. | Read More »

    John Kasich’s Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

    John Kasich's Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

    Brokered conventions are the stuff of political thrillers, reporters’ dreams, and old-fashioned history. We still may get one on the Republican side in 2016, and the campaigns are wise to prepare for the possibility, but they should not be anyone’s desired outcome two states into the process. Unfortunately, John Kasich’s campaign has mapped out a strategy that could make sense only if there’s going to | Read More »

    The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

    The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

    One of the really feverish pastimes of the first few weeks of presidential primary season – and really, of the months of poll-surfing that precede it – is the battle to spin the “expectations” for what candidates need to do in order to declare a “win”. That’s traditionally a vital part of Iowa and New Hampshire, because those states decide which candidates are viable enough | Read More »

    New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

    New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

    CNN/ORC has the latest South Carolina poll out. It’s good news for Donald Trump and (relatively) bad news for Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, the poll shows slight tightening but Hillary Clinton still with a commanding lead over Bernie Sanders due entirely to her wide advantage with from black voters. Republicans: Trump 38, Cruz 22, Rubio 14, Jeb 10, Carson 6, Kasich 4 404 | Read More »

    A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia – After The Election

    A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia - After The Election

    Barack Obama’s nominee to replace Justice Scalia on the Supreme Court cannot be confirmed by the U.S. Senate without the co-operation of Republicans, because there are 54 Republicans in the Senate. That’s enough to block Democrats from getting (1) the 50 votes needed to confirm (the tiebreaking 51st would be Vice President Biden), (2) the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, or (3) the | Read More »

    Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

    Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

    The battle to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court is gut-check time in the Senate, just as it is in the presidential race. There are 54 Republican Senators; so long as at least 51 of them remain determined to prevent President Obama from appointing a new Supreme Court Justice, none will be confirmed until Obama is out of office. And realistically, as things stand | Read More »