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    South Carolina By The Numbers

    South Carolina By The Numbers

    Saturday’s South Carolina primary wasn’t exactly what the polls predicted, but it was something of a Goldilocks result: neither good enough nor bad enough for any of the top three candidates to be decisive. With 47 states plus DC and five territories to go, we have a long march still ahead of us. The Polls: Rubio’s Iowa Redux The final poll averages had Donald Trump | Read More »

    Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

    Exit Polls From 2012, 2008 and 2000 Tell Us A Few Things About South Carolina

    As we await the results from today’s voting in South Carolina, it’s worth revisiting some lessons from the last three contested Republican primaries in South Carolina. To start with, as I noted yesterday, turnout has been wildly variable in past South Carolina GOP primaries, and the state has been so decisive in part because every winner except John McCain in 2008 has won by a | Read More »

    New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

    New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise

    Tomorrow’s Republican primary in South Carolina could provide some big surprises, if you believe some of the latest polls. The most dramatic is a new poll from Opinion Savvy showing that Marco Rubio might be in striking distance of longtime frontrunner Donald Trump. Of course, you should take any poll with a grain of salt, and there’s a flurry of them telling us different things. | Read More »

    John Kasich’s Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

    John Kasich's Brokered-Convention-Or-Bust Strategy

    Brokered conventions are the stuff of political thrillers, reporters’ dreams, and old-fashioned history. We still may get one on the Republican side in 2016, and the campaigns are wise to prepare for the possibility, but they should not be anyone’s desired outcome two states into the process. Unfortunately, John Kasich’s campaign has mapped out a strategy that could make sense only if there’s going to | Read More »

    The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

    The Time For Expectations Management Is Ending

    One of the really feverish pastimes of the first few weeks of presidential primary season – and really, of the months of poll-surfing that precede it – is the battle to spin the “expectations” for what candidates need to do in order to declare a “win”. That’s traditionally a vital part of Iowa and New Hampshire, because those states decide which candidates are viable enough | Read More »

    New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

    New South Carolina Poll From CNN: The Race For 2-3-4

    CNN/ORC has the latest South Carolina poll out. It’s good news for Donald Trump and (relatively) bad news for Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, the poll shows slight tightening but Hillary Clinton still with a commanding lead over Bernie Sanders due entirely to her wide advantage with from black voters. Republicans: Trump 38, Cruz 22, Rubio 14, Jeb 10, Carson 6, Kasich 4 404 | Read More »

    A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia – After The Election

    A Nutty Plan To Confirm An Obama Nominee To Replace Scalia - After The Election

    Barack Obama’s nominee to replace Justice Scalia on the Supreme Court cannot be confirmed by the U.S. Senate without the co-operation of Republicans, because there are 54 Republicans in the Senate. That’s enough to block Democrats from getting (1) the 50 votes needed to confirm (the tiebreaking 51st would be Vice President Biden), (2) the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, or (3) the | Read More »

    Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

    Can Any Republican Senators Afford To Go Wobbly On A Scalia Replacement? Guess Which Ones.

    The battle to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court is gut-check time in the Senate, just as it is in the presidential race. There are 54 Republican Senators; so long as at least 51 of them remain determined to prevent President Obama from appointing a new Supreme Court Justice, none will be confirmed until Obama is out of office. And realistically, as things stand | Read More »

    Take A RedState Presidential Electability Poll!

    Take A RedState Presidential Electability Poll!

    A lot of the presidential discussion right now is operating on three levels: who would be the best President, who has the best chance (or any chance) of being the nominee, and who has the best chance (or any chance) of winning the general election. Here’s your chance to weigh in, and argue your case in the comments. The electability poll – who are you | Read More »

    New Hampshire Primary By The Numbers

    New Hampshire Primary By The Numbers

    The 2016 New Hampshire primary results look like two political parties in a race to self-destruct. New Hampshire was bad news for Hillary Clinton, and worse news for Marco Rubio. Let’s run through what we learned with the final vote totals in, focusing mainly on the Republican side: 1. Republican Turnout Remains High: More voters cast ballots in the Republican than the Democratic primary in | Read More »

    How Big Were The Ratings For ABC’s New Hampshire Debate?

    How Big Were The Ratings For ABC's New Hampshire Debate?

    Big debate ratings and (in Iowa) big voter turnout have been the story of the GOP primary race so far, and despite being on a Saturday night, the New Hampshire debate on ABC was no exception: Bucking a trend of declining debate ratings, ABC’s Saturday night GOP face-off was the highest rated debate so far in 2016, according to Nielsen. ABC’s debate coverage between 8 | Read More »

    Now The Marco Rubio Spin Wars Begin

    Now The Marco Rubio Spin Wars Begin

    The story of tonight’s New Hampshire debate will probably be about Marco Rubio – but we don’t know yet what that story will be, because the post-debate spin may be more important than what actually happened. Rubio had some very good and bad moments tonight. Unfortunately for him, the bad ones were early, they were ugly and they were preventable. Chris Christie attacked him with | Read More »

    Are “Electable” Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

    Are “Electable” Candidates Actually Electable? Part II: Swing State Electability

    Is “electability” a meaningless term? It is certainly an overused one, and overused words tend to lose their meaning even when they have something to tell us. In Part I, I looked at “electability” candidates in past Republican presidential primaries. But if we look at recent presidential, Senate and Governor’s races, we can get a better fix on what kinds of candidates win and lose | Read More »

    New Hampshire Is Very Different From Iowa

    New Hampshire Is Very Different From Iowa

    The Republican primary race looks very fluid as we head into New Hampshire, albeit against a backdrop of an enormous lead for Donald Trump in the New Hampshire polls taken before his second-place finish in the Iowa Caucus. It is worth reviewing how the New Hampshire electorate is likely to differ from the Iowa Caucus electorate. Obviously a primary has a much bigger turnout than | Read More »

    Paul Ryan on President Obama: Don’t Feed The Troll

    Paul Ryan on President Obama: Don't Feed The Troll

    House Speaker Paul Ryan spoke today to the Heritage Action Conservative Policy Summit to lay out his vision for the GOP in 2016. Let me translate his remarks for you, starting after his standard thematic intro about being “a Jack Kemp, Ronald Reagan conservative.” “Let’s cut to the chase: There are a lot of people hurting in America right now. They don’t think the promise | Read More »