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    Are “Electable” Candidates Actually Electable? Part I: Presidential Primaries 1948-2012

    Are "Electable" Candidates Actually Electable? Part I: Presidential Primaries 1948-2012

    One of the siren songs raised in favor of moderate and establishment-backed candidates every primary election season is that they are “electable” and their opponents are not. Sometimes, this is frankly code for “not like those conservatives.” But if the idea that conservatives are unelectable is a fallacy, so too is the reflexive assumption that any candidate described as “electable” is actually the opposite, or | Read More »

    Where Will The “Republican Regular” Voters Go?

    Where Will The "Republican Regular" Voters Go?

    What will Republican voters do? That’s the big question of this primary, and everyone seems to be dividing the voters into “the conservatives,” “the establishment,” liberal Republicans, and – somewhere way out there – Trump supporters. But there’s a significant factor being ignored, which is hard to quantify but crucial in any Republican primary. I call them “Republican Regulars,” and they are about to become | Read More »

    The Case For Marco Rubio Part II: The Salesman

    The Case For Marco Rubio Part II: The Salesman

    Why vote to nominate Marco Rubio? My guiding star in choosing candidates is winning: winning elections, winning domestic policy and foreign policy battles, winning victory, peace and prosperity for America, winning advancement for the cause of conservative ideas – not in that order of priority, but in that order of how each kind of winning contributes to the next. In the first installment of this | Read More »

    New Hampshire Poll: Hillary Up 17 With Women, Bernie Up 42 With Men

    New Hampshire Poll: Hillary Up 17 With Women, Bernie Up 42 With Men

    There’s a lot of crazy stuff out there in the polling right now, and savvy consumers of polling should know better than to put too much stock in any single poll, or for that matter to get too carried away with primary polls, which have always been volatile and often been wrong. Still, some things in the polling bear watching, and the latest Suffolk New | Read More »

    GOP Big Money Goes After Marco Rubio

    GOP Big Money Goes After Marco Rubio

    If you want to really know who is feared in a campaign, follow the money. The money shows right now that for all the media attention around Ted Cruz and Donald Trump and all the poll analysis, the candidate who is being targeted the most by the others with attack ads is Marco Rubio, while Cruz is facing very little in the way of attack | Read More »

    ARG Polls Love John Kasich When Nobody Else Does

    ARG Polls Love John Kasich When Nobody Else Does

    There are many rules of thumb in evaluating polls, especially in the volatile context of a primary. We usually caution people to look at polling averages rather than individual polls for a variety of reasons, not least the fact that some pollsters may have biases (even if unintentional) or may consistently produce outliers. Sometimes, of course, one pollster that sees the world differently from everyone | Read More »

    Dear Ted Cruz, Donald Trump & Jeb Bush: Stop Trying To Extort GOP Voters Instead of Persuading Them

    Dear Ted Cruz, Donald Trump & Jeb Bush: Stop Trying To Extort GOP Voters Instead of Persuading Them

    Politics, as they say, ain’t beanbag. But party politics is still a team sport, in which a team that acts together is vastly more powerful than a bunch of people who have been forced together in mutual loathing and are looking to backstab each other at the first opportunity. The strongest political parties are those that give their voters a choice between their strongest candidates, | Read More »

    Donald Trump Floats A Pro-Abortion Vice President

    Donald Trump Floats A Pro-Abortion Vice President

    If you want confirmation of how seriously Donald Trump takes social conservatism, look no further than today’s report from New Hampshire that he would consider former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown as a running mate: Speaking to a crowd at a Portsmouth, N.H., rally hosted by Scott Brown on Saturday, Donald Trump said the former senator would make a “very good” vice president. After Trump asked | Read More »

    Marco Rubio Is Now Getting Attacked Unfairly For Killing Charlie Crist’s Climate Scheme

    Marco Rubio Is Now Getting Attacked Unfairly For Killing Charlie Crist's Climate Scheme

    In 2007, Florida’s newly-elected “Republican” Governor Charlie Crist announced, with much fanfare, a costly “cap and trade” plan to regulate carbon emissions by Florida electric power plants. In the Spring 2008 legislative session, Crist pushed the Florida legislature to adopt his mandates into law. During the months-long public debate on the plan, Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio called for free-market approaches to “clean energy” and | Read More »

    Ted Cruz Leading Tight Iowa Race In New Gold Standard Poll

    Ted Cruz Leading Tight Iowa Race In New Gold Standard Poll

    Perhaps no pollster in the nation is more respected on her home turf than Ann Selzer, the Iowa pollster for the Des Moines Register, who among other famous victories broke from the pack to nail Joni Ernst’s margin of victory in 2014. So while the polling averages are generally your best bet, whenever Selzer delivers a new Iowa Caucus poll, it’s worth listening. This morning | Read More »

    The Case For Marco Rubio, Part I: Experience

    The Case For Marco Rubio, Part I: Experience

    The two main goals of the primary process – whether in a presidential or other race – are to choose the best candidate to do the job, and the candidate with the best chance of winning the job. Less than three weeks from the Iowa Caucus and less than a month from the New Hampshire Primary, we have reached a time for choosing. That choice | Read More »

    How A Donald Trump Nomination Would Make The GOP Consultant Class Very Rich

    How A Donald Trump Nomination Would Make The GOP Consultant Class Very Rich

    While Donald Trump won’t be the GOP nominee, reclaiming the party from Trump still requires that we contemplate what a Trump nomination and even possibly a Trump presidency would look like. The picture isn’t a pretty one. One of the underappreciated aspects is how any electoral success by Trump in the primaries and potentially the general election could spawn a bonanza for the GOP’s much-despised | Read More »

    Do Liberals Know The History Of Their Own Ideas?

    Do Liberals Know The History Of Their Own Ideas?

    Given liberal-progressive movement’s obsession with youth and the minds of the young and its disdain for tradition, it should not surprise us that American progressives often treat history as an afterthought – a topic to be consulted only when one needs usable examples to advance a particular point for the duration of a particular argument. Remarks by Justice Scalia over the weekend offer just one | Read More »

    Against Despair: A Christmas Credo for Republicans

    Against Despair: A Christmas Credo for Republicans

    This is supposed to be a happy occasion for Republicans and conservatives. The Republican Party, as an institution, has more top-to-bottom strength than it has had since the 1920s. The House of Representatives is now run by one of the most eloquent spokesmen for the ideas of our party and our movement. There is significant reason to be optimistic about the terrain in the coming | Read More »

    What Would a Rubio Win Look Like?

    What Would a Rubio Win Look Like?

    The GOP primary map presents different challenges for and , as it presents Cruz with a strong opportunity for an early knockout blow, and Rubio with better odds of winning if the nomination devolves into a long march for delegates. The Cruz path to victory is fairly easy to describe, as it starts with winning Iowa and South Carolina – which effectively neuters Donald Trump | Read More »