n/t

n/t

I’m quite surprised you don’t mention the Palin effect.

I run into people who aren’t heavily into politics who are adamant in their support because of Palin. They say “she’s one of us. This is the first time in a long time when one of us has run. I’m tired of politicians who’ve been in Washington too long, particularly the (expletive) lawyers.” That’s quoting my butcher; he also added “How could I not like someone who kills animals?” But I’ve heard the rest of the sentiment among many folks. The severe beating the media is dishing out only makes their support for her even stronger since they view it as an attack on them too.

Add to that the women who will show up for Palin.

I also count myself as a Palin convert. I was having a hard time backing McCain. One of my biggest hurdles was that McCain came to my state (Oregon) and campaigned FOR a gun control initiative in 2000. I swore that when he appeared on commercials for gun control that he would never get my support. His pick of Palin atoned for that slight.

I am confident that you are right but it’s time to work, work, work.

If this election should go south, I just know I’m not going down without a fight.

I pray that you are right. My church is praying for McCain to win. I know millions of Christians are praying as well.

But why should God allow us to win? Our country doesn’t deserve McCain as our President. We have allowed 40 million abortions to occur. We have made marriage- an outward symbol of God’s covenant with His people- to become a mockery. We have made material things our god.

I pray that God will forgive us and have mercy upon this nation one more time. We don’t deserve it, but I pray He hears the cries of His people and spares us. But He didn’t spare Sodom and Gamorrah, why should He spare us? Have mercy Lord.

But I will pray and pray hard.

God help us!!!

Psalm 35

THAT, right there, is why the youth vote wont come out. They are great at leaving comments, and being rude, but get off their BUTTS and DRIVE to vote?

“You mean you cant vote by TEXT like American Idol?”

“WTF?”

“Obama is up by so much, he is going to win, my vote doesn’t matter. Now where’s my Bong???? (Gurgle Gurgle) Oh, yaaaaaaaaH! F*ck Bush! Where’s my XBOX/PS3 controller? Oh, I’m hungry too. Where’s food? The fridge! ……Nah……too far.”

That scene will be repeated at more College campuses than you could ever realize.

McCain/Palin 08

Gamecock’s Law:

Americans have never elected, and will not elect, someone as far to the left as Obama is.

Obama is doomed to Musical Chairs in the diner on the Boulevard of Broken Dreams,”redistributing the wealth” from a Senate seat with which he is now utterly bored, followed by an academic chair at some prestigious university, where he will be reduced to laying the groundwork for his wife’s run at the Senate.

His moment has come and gone, and he will never have this leverage to crowbar the window of opportunity again.

Apologies to GC if I misstated the Law. Feel free to amend or correct my interpretation.

What are Obama’s campaign’s actions telling us? I’m sure they know reality from internal polling or are they just wanting to feel good by fooling themselves? LOL

Plus the continued revelations. If those 7 notes hold… we still have the impact of the unknown finally becoming known.

Who knows what other cream might rise to the top in the next week that could further amplify the above.

Now get to work and Turn out, Turn out, Turn out the vote!

thanks for putting it together.

The other thing is that the polling models have been so very skewed that the current numbers if adjusted for accurate sampling, indicate that McCain is actually comfortably ahead in all important states and close behind or tied in second-tier states.

No time to dig up background info, sorry, on lunch…

everything I have been saying since THE ONE became inevitable in the primaries because of every last one of those 6 items you will recall he limped to a win and the MEDIA called for Hillary to drop out…..it’s no different in the general except no caucuses….go home Imitation Christ and surround yourself with groupies because you will not win this election!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy &
does not destroy him is his own enemy

on November 4.

Lord willing you’ll be right. My hunch is you are!!!

“But the national media has become a feminized, electronic vote-for-Obama nagging machine.”

Wow, that is great writing! I love it.

to God’s ear. I’m not a particularly religious person, but I’m actually praying that McCain and Palin pull this out. I think Sen. Obama means well, but his vision of this nation is really far left.

Thanks for fronting that diary, Erick. I continually pray that the Real America will stand up and McCain will get the job on Nov. 4. I really do pray these predictors are correct. The idea of an Obama presidency makes me so ill….

As an aside, the fraud continues on the Obama side….with the attention it’s been getting, I was sure they would’ve fixed the donation system to, you know, actually verify their donations. So this morning, for S&G, I tried donating $15 from “John McCain, 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, Washington DC” with email “president@whitehouse.gov”.

Went through, no problem. I’m not really sure who the winner in that experiment was. I want my $15 back, by golly!

Where’s the data or even an attempt to spin the data? I just see contrived political memes that have long been discredited by serious thinkers on the right and left.
http://dejaentendu.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/6-reasons-to-ignore-redstate/

…to God’s ears

Some problems that I see:

For reason #2-this combination of states could very well be coincidence. OK, so there have been 9 elections since 72. But when you are dealing with 50 states, it is not that unlikely that six would correlate in every election. But lets say there is something to this theory-do not count on winning Ohio. It is possible, but what I have been yelling here and to every dope that calls me from the RNC is that the issues that matter to blue collar dems here in Western PA and Eastern Ohio are things such as there belief that Republicans send jobs overseas, create huge deficits by giving tax breaks to the rich, created the financial crisis be deregulating Wall Street, etc.(yes, believe it or not, a very large majority of the American public believes that, because they have not heard the real story.) McCain is not going to have a lot of success unless he tackles these issues head on. These are socially moderate to conservative people that work hard and don’t believe in unending welfare, but almost always vote democrat because they believe that democrats are “for the little guy” and republicans are for the wealthy. In fact, were it not for such effective economic populism and demagoguery, there would not even be a national democratic party, it would be flourish only in socially/culturally liberal areas such as Mass. California, etc.

reason #3-if you think that the general public has any knowledge of Farrakhan’s comments, you are nuts. In fact, take a survey of several non-political junkies. You might be surprised to find out that most have never even heard of Farrakhan.(They might remember the million man march, but I would put money on the fact that the name will not ring a bell.)

Reason #5-as stated before, thanks to the democrat’s deception, the media’s bias, and McCain’s utter incompetence in explaining the financial crisis, Obama and the democrat’s responsibility is not known, and McCain suffers, as most people believe that he will be better at dealing with it.

The problem is that a large percentage of the population does not understand the issues. This is not because they are not capable, but because they are not properly informed and educated. Yes, most detect a media bias, and yes, most are aware of a few reasons to be uncomfortable with Obama, but it is absolutely foolish to, as many here seem to, think that most people are aware of everything that those of us who read the news and blogs are. Maybe I am incorrect, but it seems to me that when making predictions, many assume that we are dealing with an electorate that is privy to all the information that we are.

I agree on every point. The biggest caveat in all of this (at least in my novice opinion) is Ohio. I’m confident they’ll come through, but still a bit apprehensive.

Like the popular mantra goes: TURN OUT!

I hope you are right and we do pull this out–it will be fun watching the reactions on MSNBC.

Another factor left out from the above is the skewing of registered party affiliations underlying the polling demographics. Not only are there a fair number of seething Hillary PUMA’s who are registered Democrats but will vote McCain (see http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog), I also wonder how may registered “Democrats” linger on the rolls as the result of Operation Chaos? I suspect, but don’t know for certain, that the ACORN registrants are [overwhelmingly] new “Democrats”; I also suspect that very few of them will, in fact, show up at the polls. (That those who show might do so repeatedly is another story…)

My gut tells me that the combination of those factors, on top of a Bradley Effect, could skew the demographics underlying the polls by a good 10 percentage points.

“Hope and Change” is not what I hear in Sen. Obama’s speeches; I only hear hopelessness and despair. This brings the Carteresque “Malaise” to mind, and I surely pray that Americans are generally more optimistic that that, despite our current tribulation.

1. Democrats will show up to vote in record numbers. Early voter turnout means more people will have the opportunity to vote. Higher voter turnout has always favored Democrats. Republicans pursue every means of suppressing voter turnout because history shows that the more people who go to the polls, the less likely their candidate will win.

2. Republicans will stay home in record numbers due to a lack of enthusiasm in voting for a plurality default candidate that they’ve never been enthusiastic about in the first place. The McCain/Palin campaign has been embarrassingly disorganized and has actually divided rather than united Republicans. I’ve never seen so many prominent Republicans either condemn the Republican candidate or endorse the Democratic candidate. In addition, the Republican brand has been so thoroughly poisoned by the incompetence, ineffectiveness and destructive policies of George W. Bush, that even Republicans recognize America can’t afford another inadequate and pig-headed Republican president who cares more about corporate profits than keeping jobs in America.

McCain won’t garner 200 electoral votes and he’ll lose the popular vote by 7 to 14 percentage points. McCain will lose Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Democrats will end up with 59 or 60+ Senate seats and add 25 to 30 members to the House.

I think they’re is a large group of voters that say they’re going to vote Obama because they don’t want to be hassled.

I’ve never seen so much pressure from Obama supporters and the media to support a candidate. I think a lot of people are just going with the flow when polls are taken, but will pull the lever for McCain when the time comes.

It’s not that their closet racists, it’s just that conservatives tend to be the silent majority that Nixon talked about. Conservatives are rarely out protesting and getting in people’s faces. Liberals WILL get in your face if you disagree with them.

Also, with respect to polling, if you had a job with one of the Unions, like the AFL-CIO, UAW, Teamsters, etc,, and you got a call on your house asking how you intended to vote, wouldn’t you just tow the party line for fear of retribution? You truly could lose your job if the wrong person were at the other end of that phone call. Even I would probably say I’m voting straight Democrat.

I think a lot of blue-collar union voters are going to break big for McCain, just because I have a lot of them in my family who are Democrats that will absolutely vote against Obama. States like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even Michigan are going to be a lot closer than the pollsters are indicating.

I totally agree with the writer, and I am no huge fan of McCain. The most reliable public pollster has the race at 2.8 between the two and closing. Also, I think there are a lot of people who are embarrassed and pressured by the media’s constant hammering to admit to pollsters that they are not voting for Obama. I am a hopeless political junky and am seeing a very, very close race. McCain will once again astound the pundits with an amazing comeback.

Over on Intrade, you can bet on McCain’s success at 9:1 odds. If any of you are really sure about McCain’s chances, a $124 bet placed today will pay off at $1000 next Tuesday.

If you’re not so sure, I’d recommend not pretending like McCain’s got it in the bag when the data says the opposite.

…to God’s ears.

I’ve always had this gut feeling McCain will win.

Fact is, most people in this country do not want to have their money taken from them, they do not want to be Europeans, and do not like their decisions made for them.

I believe McCain will win, and I believe there will be violence starting November 5th.

While you people are praying for McCain to win on Tuesday, the rest of the country will be out VOTING for Obama to win. I believe in God, but I also believe that just by asking for an election result that you’ll get it is absolutely rediculous. For either candidate. Remember the people that put water in their gas tanks and prayed that God would turn it into gas? Yeah….. And let’s not forget, I’ve heard Obama talk openly and often about his CHRISTIAN faith (that’s right, he’s not a Muslim!), and yet I think the only time I heard McCain mention faith is his made-up story from his POW experience. So maybe God is on Obama’s side anyway:) I guess since praying won’t work you could always steal the election. Again.

…be voting for Obama.

Obama has not shown one iota of any Christian values.
Not one! And to sat that God on Obama side is just - well it is just not true. More like Obama is the devil incarnate.

Obama has not shown one iota of any Christian values.
Not one! And to say that God on Obama side is just - well it is just not true. More like Obama is the devil incarnate.

So they are acting in their typical dismissive fashion.

My personal favorite is the one telling us we are simply praying for a miracle. That one is great LOL!

just now. Beckel says the race is over. No way for McCain to win.

I cannot wait to hear what he has to say on Nov 5……

What a moron. IMO

SURVIVING IN WYOMING…

Join the RedState Strike Force

Point 0 (the un-numbered one) is legitimate.

Points 1 and 2 are completely invalid — it is to terribly misunderstand statistics and cause and effect, to try to predict the future based on a small sample of past events.

3: Doubtful.

4: This is a very valid point. The effect has been surprisingly non-existent in the polls, but the vote may show something different entirely.

5: Again, the polls have not borne this out. It may mean that undecided voters are more likely to break for McCain, but so far the anti-Republican sentiment has turned the polls the opposite direction.

6: Maybe. This didn’t really happen in the primaries, but choosing a party candidate is very different from choosing the leader of the free world. Hispanics in particular may be hard for Obama to win over.

From Family Circle:

Cindy McCain’s oatmeal-butterscotch recipe received 54 percent of the readers’ vote, to 44 percent for Michelle Obama’s (bitter, clingy, arugula) shortbread cookies, Family Circle magazine announced this afternoon. Bill Clinton, who submitted his oatmeal cookie recipe before Hillary Clinton dropped out, received 2 percent of the vote.
McCain’s winning recipe — which presumably is her own after earlier controversies over borrowed recipes — will appear in the magazine’s Nov. 1 issue.
The cookie contest between the potential first spouses has correctly predicted the presidential winner in every election since 1992, the magazine says:
2004, Laura Bush’s oatmeal chocolate chunks beat Teresa Heinz Kerry’s pumpkin spice cookies.
2000, Laura Bush’s Texas governor’s mansion cowboy cookies defeated Tipper Gore’s gingersnaps.
1996, Hillary Clinton’s oatmeal chocolate chips bested Elizabeth Dole’s pecan rolls.
And in 1992, Hillary Clinton’s oatmeal chocolate chips also defeated Barbara Bush’s classic chocolate chips.

My Dad was a union worker for the city of Chicago during the 60’s and 70’s and he would discuss politics in the house but always told us kids that IF anyone asks tell them we are voting democratic. Even though he voted repub starting in 1964 and ever since then. Absolutely there is a pressure and intimidation in the unions to back the endorsed candidate! Don’t be so naive to think otherwise!

Why, even as we blog, the Republican National Committee is buying up TV time in deep-red Montana and West Virginia ( the pro-american parts, I imagine). No word on ad buys in Arizona.

A sure sign of VICTORY!

Onwards….my friends, to the White House!

I’m worried about McCain’s get out the vote effort, which the post doesn’t address. Doesn’t Obama have a stronger volunteer base to get people to the polls? Will Palin get McCain supporters out to vote?

I’d like to contest points from the OP:

a) This qualifies as a rant, not as any evidence that Obama won’t win.

1) Later polls are more meaningful than those taken at Labor Day.

2) The bellweather states thing doesn’t register. Besides, Obama is polling very well in Ohio these days, and Missouri is close. The electorate is fluid, not stuck in the 1970s.

3) You provide no evidence that Obama’s Jewish support has eroded, and Florida’s polling casts this assertion into doubt.

4) Obama’s polling among Dems has grown over time, suggesting that his support among Clinton supporters has risen. And you certainly haven’t pointed to anything that suggests the opposite is the case.

5) Americans consistently say they trust Obama more on the economy than McCain, and in general Dems tend to score well on this issue.

6) There hasn’t been much evidence lately that a Bradley effect exists, but even if it does, it probably won’t be enough to offset Obama’s commanding advantages in electoral math.

Number one rule in the Republican playbook: blame the media.

You people are idiots, pure and simple. No reason to argue facts here. It just wouldn’t matter. McCain/Palin running the country would only serve to speed the downward trajectory towards the Rome-like fall of the US.

There is no God. Religion is stupid. So are most of you.

This isn’t mine but it needed to be posted!

1) The media is in the tank for Obama, and everyone votes exactly the opposite of how the media leans. Always. Everyone I know says they ignore the media, except for Fox. Except this time, because they’ve gone all liberal with their “reality-based” polling, letting that flaming commie Frank Lutz do their focus groups, so that’s just that much more reason why everyone will vote against Obama.

1) (yes, that’s two ones, take it up with the author) The Gallup poll taken after Labor Day is the real predictor of the winner. Since that was the only point at which McCain was leading, obviously he’s going to win.

2) Because McCain is leading in six five four of the six arbitrarily chosen states that have voted for the winner in the last 6 elections, he’s obviously going to win. No, it doesn’t matter that Obama can lose all six and still coast to a 300+ EV victory, as go Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee, so goes the nation. I’m sure that’s in the Constitution, somewhere, the “Real America” amendment, look it up. Anyway, that McCain only leads in 4 of them is a liberal media fabrication, just like how they say he’s trailing nationwide.

3) Elderly and some other Jewish voters (because obviously all old people are Jewish, but I’ve been told some Jews aren’t old) are not going to vote for a black man because a couple of other black men said stuff about Israel. Forget the polling that says Obama is doing even better than usual for a Democrat with Jewish voters, it’s all a liberal media conspiracy, because they’re controlled by Jews, who won’t vote for Obama, because he’s black…. Anyway, Israel decides who wins US elections, and Obama is out.

4) 5-7 million PUMA’s are ducking the pollsters, lying “in the weeds”, lulling Obama and the Democrats into a false sense of security. On November 4th, they’ll jump out of the weeds and into the voting booths, exacting their revenge on Obama for not making Hillary his VP. Because old bitter feminists are sneaky bitches, like we always said, so of course they’ll vote Republican now.

5) Even though people have responded to news of economic and diplomatic uncertainty by flocking to the Inexperienced New Guy, just because he seems to stay cool under pressure, in about a week they’re going to remember that what they really want is a old man, possibly senile, who always seems only a bad cup of coffee from launching into a fit of rage and letting the missiles fly. Because my wife’s hair-dresser said she always votes for the guy who looks the most pissed off. So there.

6) Finally, the Bradley effect of people who won’t admit to voting against the black guy isn’t just 2%, it’s 5 6 7, oh, come on, how much does it have to be for McCain to win!? Really? That much? Okay, the Bradley Effect is 10 percentage points, so McCain isn’t losing by 8 points or more in enough states for Obama to take the election, he’s actually winning by 2.

You think that qualifies as voter suppression?

Voter suppression is having your name purged because someone in prison has the same name.

Voter suppression is having your name purged because your home is listed as under foreclosure.

Voter suppression is having a fraction of voting locations and machines necessary for a given area, so that if you can get to your polling place, you have to wait hours.

Voter suppression is having voting locations have streets closed, and riot police stationed around it because they’re “expecting trouble.”

Voter suppression is giving disinformation on official looking documents, but only to certain demographics.

Voter suppression is challenging voters who have correct identification, but intimidating them by claiming they don’t.

Voter suppression is not counting or recounting votes.

Voter suppression is putting defective equipment in poor neighborhoods.

Voter suppression is not being able to process all the new voter registrations for a given area because there isn’t the manpower, and then those that don’t get processed in time are too late.

This just scratches the surface, of course. But voter suppression isn’t reporting what a wide variety of more or less carefully conducted polls say week after week. That’s just NOT voter suppression.

["Irony? What's that?" - Moe Lane]