Snowe’s Yes Vote and ObamaCare’s Future


While Senator Snowe’s yes vote in the Senate Finance Committee was a shock to liberals and conservatives, it is neither a defeat for conservatives nor a victory for liberals. The bill would have passed Committee regardless of how Sen. Snowe voted.

Senator Snowe, in her own words, said her vote was a maybe on the Senate floor. Smart political observers like Carrie Budoff Brown at Politico understand that Snowe’s vote radically increases the likelihood of Dem-on-Dem political violence over any single significant move to the left that the Democratic Leadership contemplates when they attempt to merge the bill.

Think of the Snowe vote as tent pegs holding the bill in place, while liberal generated wind storms attempt to move the tent to the left. The chances of the pegs coming out and the tent being blown like a tumbleweed are real and will be devastating to the bill.

Plus, Senator Snowe’s voice now carries a high-wattage amplifier with it inside the Democratic leadership. The liberals want a public option? Lose Snowe. Want to bring up a Vapor bill? Snowe is at no. Want to spring legislative language on the Senate without a CBO score of the language? Snowe is at no and so are eight other Democratic Senators who sent a letter to Majority Leader Reid last week requesting a CBO score on actual legislative language and a 72 hour review period by the public of the bill prior to its consideration on the Senate floor. The letter was backed up with threats by the Democratic Senators to employ procedural hurdles if there request is not met, as Congressional Quarterly reported on October 6:

“The effort by the seven Democrats and one independent is significant because the overhaul is unlikely to succeed without their backing. Also, several said that if they do not get their way, they might use procedural tactics to block consideration of the overhaul.”

When legislation is in writing, claims about what it does and does not do are verifiable. The great issues of importance, which will determine if the bill passes, in general, are 1) taxes to pay for the bill, 2) abortion or see this video, 2) benefits for illegal immigrants, 3) gun ownership, 4) Medicare cuts, 5) health reform design, 6) overall government control of our lives, 7) payment levels for physicians and hospitals, 8 ) how spending $1 trillion will impact the value of the dollar, 9) the impact on State’s budgets because of Medicaid expansion (see statements by Dem Governors here) and 10) the cost to those with health insurance.

Specifically, here is a detailed list of ten politically significant things that the Vapor bill (a bill without legislative language) can not tell us, but we will find answers to once with have the legislative language.

The answers in the legislative language will form the political battlefield of this bill and the legislative language review will determine, more than any other factor, whether this bill will pass or fail.

Yes, I said fail. Since Senator Lieberman is opposed to the bill in its current form, the opponents of this bill need only one other Democratic Senator to vote to continue the debate, or stated another way, vote to continue the filibuster.

So, for all those who want to kill ObamaCare, it is all about getting as many Democratic Senators to vote no on cloture on the motion to proceed and vote no on cloture on the bill. (Cloture means to end debate or put more clearly, to end a filibuster.) The debate in the Senate, if Senator Reid cannot get cloture, will never end. And each of the issues listed above provides plenty of reasons for the debate to never end, or more likely, to create such opposition because of a Senator’s concerns about one or more of these issues that no policy combination can get to 60 votes to end the filibuster.

When a bill that is being filibustered on the Senate floor cannot get cloture, the bill is pulled off the floor.


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16 Comments Leave a comment

As much as I hate that Snowe has temporarily given them political cover

ciscoguy Wednesday, October 14th at 5:32PM EDT (link)

(and by cover, I mean about as much cover as a baby blanket on an NBA player. It’s not like they got Jim DeMint to sign on), this could really work out in our favor.

They are desperate to have some sort of bi-partisan support, even if it means one “GOP” Senator. Any bill they draw up will cost a fortune and will do nothing to lower costs. Whether or not it includes a public option, I agree there are too many pitfalls that the ultra-lefties will pull them into and force them to lose Snowe (and Collins, if she’s semi-serious). That would be a disaster for them and a big victory for us and the nation.

Snowe gave HERSELF cover

Jack_Savage Wednesday, October 14th at 6:08PM EDT (link)

Let’s see how this turns out farther down the line - she has given herself the perfect opportunity to say, “I thought it was important to move the process forward in committee, but this bill doesn’t resemble anything I can vote for.”

History did indeed call, but Snowe gave the wrong answer. History called Neville Chamberlin also, but he must have lost something in the translation, just as Snowe did.

Agreed

gator_hoo Wednesday, October 14th at 10:07PM EDT (link)

While Snowe could use this for the benefit of the nation, I am dubious that she will seek to benefit anyone but herself

 
 
 

Hate To Pin My Hopes On Snowe

crosley Wednesday, October 14th at 6:40PM EDT (link)

I agree that her vote can work in our favor, but I think she’s just going to fall in line with the rest of the Democrats when the time comes.

She is now an important voice on this process, and my guess is the Democrats will have to give her what she wants (like posting the final bill 72 hours before it’s voted on, final bill scored by CBO, etc.). The public option also seems dead DOA.

My biggest fear is the Democrats will get the 60 votes for cloture, but then 8-10 spineless Democrats will then vote against the final bill. They can use the excuse “I voted against the bill, but I voted to keep the process going” nonsense. The cloture vote IS the vote, period.

I don’t think Democrats will get away with it on election day, and any Democrat Senator that votes for cloture or the final bill that comes from a red or purple state will most likely be knocked off.

 

And... (wait for it)

Praying Wednesday, October 14th at 7:27PM EDT (link)

…the other Maine sister, Susan Collins, is also reported to have signed on. Great…. Why do the people in the Northeast tolerate this?

 

"Why do the people in the Northeast tolerate this?"

ColdWarrior Wednesday, October 14th at 7:58PM EDT (link)

Well, in Maine’s case (and I hope someone from Maine will respond and give us their views) my guess is that conservatives in Maine are too superior to bother with mundane Party grass roots involvement. Or perhaps they’re simply outnumbered. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the precinct committeeman slots in the Maine Republican Party are vacant.

For example, on election day in November, 2008 in Maricopa County, Arizona, there were about 694,000 registered Republican Party voters. About 6,350 precinct committeeman slots existed to represent their interests within the Republican Party. But fewer than one third of those slots, 1,989, were filled.

Common sense tells one that there has to be at least 4,400 good conservatives in Maricopa County out of the approximately 692,000 registered Republican Party voters who were not precinct committeeman. If they were told how easy it is to become a PC, and how powerful that office is in terms of electing the Party leaders and voting to endorse the candidates in the Party primary elections, I’m confident they’d come into the Party and cause a conservative TAKEOVER of the Party.

That’s what I’m working on.

Thank you.

ColdWarrior
http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com

American first, conservative second and Republican precinct committeeman by necessity.

http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com, so you can say, “I became a precinct committeeman before it was cool.”

“Elections have consequences, my friends.” — John McCain

Try: There Aren't Enough of Them in Maine

IJB Wednesday, October 14th at 8:30PM EDT (link)

I doubt there are enough conservatives in Maine to “control” the party, let alone get someone elected statewide.

 
 

A key point in all this, that so many people forget.

jeffreywturner Wednesday, October 14th at 8:06PM EDT (link)

They don’t need Snowe, or any of those other 8 senators to actually vote for the bill. As a matter of fact, they could lose a couple more and still be fine. They only need the so-called centrists to vote for cloture, and they only need that once. Once they have established cloture, they can then re-insert whatever language they want through an amendment with only 50 votes plus the VP. For that matter, they only need 50 for final passage too. What’s more, the so-called moderates can still claim they voted against the bill when they run for re-election, even though their vote for cloture made it possible for the bill to pass.

I honestly think our best chance is in the house, where EVERYONE is up for re-election next year, and they can’t hide behind procedural excuses by saying they “voted for it before they voted against it”, or vice versa. I think there are probably about 40 Dems who are smart enough to know that a vote for final passage equals a likely job loss for them next year.

“Life is too short, can’t we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?”

I Agree

DavidSage Wednesday, October 14th at 9:33PM EDT (link)

The House is probably the best chance to defeat this bill.

I think it will be easy for the Dems to get cloture in the Senate, I could easily see every single Dem voting to end cloture, and probably pick up 2-3 Republican Senators. Actually voting for the bill is a different matter. I can easily think of 10-15 Democrat Senators that come from Red States that will probably end their careers in politics if they vote for the actual bill, but unfortunately they’re not all up for re-election in 2010.

Members of the House are much more skittish, and I know if I was a member in the House, I wouldn’t want to go near this bill, even if I came from a relatively safe district. It’s much more toxic than the Cap and Trade Bill, which just barely made it through the House.

 
 

You're so gosh-darned CUTE

cwilson Wednesday, October 14th at 9:43PM EDT (link)

when you’re naive.

Dan Perrin: “Want to [do some liberal thing]? Snowe is at no.”

Um, no. She SAYS she’s a maybe. I don’t believe her. I don’t believe the 8 blue dogs asking for 72 hours. I don’t believe any of those lying, greedy, power hunger b@stards. They will vote for it unless we put the ever-loving fear of the GOD into them, by making it absolutely 100% crystal clear that if they vote for this massive budget-busting expansion of government power, it will not be THEIR personal power. Because they will not only lose their job next November, but will also be turned so toxic that none of those cushy lobbyist/think tank jobs will be anywhere in their sight. No friendly parachute for self-sacrificing take-one-for-the-team Dems (and RINOs). They’ll have to go back to Peoria and get a REAL job.

THAT’s what these brahmins are afraid of. Make ‘em fear it.

That’s the only way any of them WON’T vote for this thing. “Snowe is at no.” HAH. It is to laugh.

cwilson said, "They will vote for it unless we put the ever-loving fear of the GOD into them,

ColdWarrior Thursday, October 15th at 12:32PM EDT (link)

by making it absolutely 100% crystal clear that if they vote for this massive budget-busting expansion of government power, it will not be THEIR personal power. Because they will not only lose their job next November . . . .”

How do we make it “100% crystal clear that if they vote for this . . . they will . . . lose their job next November”?

By sending them more letters? More faxes? Doubtful. That hasn’t seemed to work so far.

But, if you make a call, send a fax, or an e-mail, and prominently include one of the two following statements, I think you CAN and WILL make a difference:

“I am a conservative Republican Party precinct committeeman and I am doing everything in my power to recruit all other conservatives to come into the Republican Party as precinct committeemen to make sure you lose your attempt to get reelected,” or

“I am a conservative Republican and I am have already contacted my local Republican Party organization to become a precinct committeeman and I am doing everything in my power to recruit all other conservatives to come into the Republican Party as precinct committeemen to make sure you lose your attempt to get reelected.”

With the Republican Party having had one-half of its precinct committeeman slots nationwide vacant in the 2008 election cycle, the incumbents know their main adversary party, our party, is at half strength and, therefore, a “paper tiger” that is horrible at getting out the vote. They also know that many foolish independents would flock to a third party candidates who would profess to be more conservative than the “Democrat Lite” moderate Republican Party offerings.

Want to put some teeth in the threats? Then help turn the Republican Party into a full-strength, solid conservative political powerhouse at the grass roots. That’s accomplished by conservatives actually joining the Party at the grass roots. Change the status quo NOW from a Party at half strength with a fifty-fifty split between conservatives and moderates into a full-strength political powerhouse with a 75 per cent to 25 per cent split between conservatives and moderates.

Nobody else is going to do it. As Moe Lane says, don’t expect the cavalry to do it. We’re the cavalry. If you want to save your country, you best become a Republican Party precinct committeeman NOW. Crossing your fingers and hoping for change will not get it done in 2010.

The Constitution begins with “we the people.” With half of the precinct committeeman slots in the Republican Party in the 2008 election cycle having been vacant, I submit that “we the people” who have not been fighting to get into the real political ball game of party politics have let our country, our Founders and our posterity down. We have gotten the government our apathy and inaction deserve.

Conservatives, the Republican Party is the main adversary of the Democrat Party. It was at half strength in 2008. And had about 50 per cent of its precinct committeemen of the “moderate” McCain persuasion. Look at the leadership that those PCs elected. Look at the candidates that made it to the general elections. Want more conservative leaders and spokesmen? More conservatives winning the primary contests? Then DO SOMETHING about it. Become a precinct committeeman. NOW! There are plenty of open slots. If all the slots are filled with moderates. challenge them. Get off your duffs and get into the Party if you haven’t already. Nobody else is going to do it. It’s up to YOU.

Thank you.

ColdWarrior
http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com

American first, conservative second and Republican precinct committeeman by necessity.

http://www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com, so you can say, “I became a precinct committeeman before it was cool.”

“Elections have consequences, my friends.” — John McCain

 
 

Could she have possibly not known...

Eddie S Thursday, October 15th at 2:47AM EDT (link)

That the media would make her yes vote in committee, which may or may not give her some leverage to hold the bill from moving left on the floor, to crow about Republican involvement and basically tout it as a sign that the legislation is a done deal?

And sooo bipartisan

pythandmoan Thursday, October 15th at 9:03AM EDT (link)

OHB (meh meh meh) interrupted Glenn Beck (again) to announce this historic, “bipartisan” effort. I missed the rest of the show due to a major sistolic malfunction. Bipartisan my firm, toned bewtox. How many Republican amendments made the final cut? None? Or did I miss some?

And sooo bipartisan continued

scubadiver49er Thursday, October 15th at 9:46AM EDT (link)

The “Snowe Job” gave BHO exactly what he wanted, to be able to say almost immediatelyafter the vote, that he had “bi-partisan” consensus out of that committee, and blasted it out on the airwaves as soon as he could. Thanks, “sweetheart”!!!! And how about the red “White House Hotline” phone Beck set up! Ingenious, me thinks. And no phone calls yet to correct him, so he must be telling the truth.

And yes, ZERO Republican amendments so far. The tragedy in this Healthcare fiasco, is that they are going to completely trash a working system that needs repair with one that is going to help break this country. How many thousands of employees in the Insurance industry are going to lose their jobs & be added to the ranks of the unemployed because of passing this legislation, Mr. President??? Way to go “Barry”!! How about incorporating ideas like what John Mackey of Whole Foods Market, Inc. has put in place? THAT system works. Several reasons the unions absolutely HATE that system is that the employees are non-union and they have BETTER healthcare benefits than THEY do! Go figure.

 
 
 

Who are you Mitch McConnell?

Marcus_Traianus Thursday, October 15th at 9:25AM EDT (link)

Respectfully, regarding Snowe, this is the inner sanctum, technocrat, odds making nonsense that keeps people from seeing the forest through the trees and obfuscates the issues.

Let’s start with facts; Snowe votes with our caucus only when in suits her personal needs. This act, like many others is motivated by Snowe’s infernal attempts to raise her own status with the Washington elites, including President Obama. Full stop.

I don’t buy for one second there is a bundle of intellectual, deliberate calculations in this move. Look at her history; past is prologue.

By the way, I noticed in all the coverage Snowe is getting how she repetitively talks about the Republicans alternative bill.

Snowe’s move in point of fact, actually gives Democrats cover for decisions they should make on their own- as opposed to saying- “Oh, well you know we have to consider Olympia’s support because we don’t want to lose that bipartisan support all wrapped up in one vote”. Ya, sure.

If Snowe would actually explicate what is so attractive in this bill her constituents would be appalled. Does she remember anything about Dirigo Care? Obviosuly not.

Look, IMO this is a great, informative piece. But the Snowe defense is just superfluous. We really need to stop eating our young by getting rid of the cannibals.

“Both of our political parties, at least the honest portion of them, agree conscientiously in the same object—the public good; but they differ essentially in what they deem the means of promoting that good. One side believes it best done by one composition of the governing powers; the other, by a different one. One fears most the ignorance of the people; the other, the selfishness of rulers independent of them. Which is right, time and experience will prove.”.Thomas Jefferson

Contributor to The Minority Report

 

It's Snoweing!

dclamage Thursday, October 15th at 11:25AM EDT (link)

One or two Republican votes, a.k.a. Snowe and Collins, is hardly what I’d call bipartisan support. But Obama lies constantly, so no surprise for him claiming bipartisanship from two RINO’s, for bills that have had zero Republican input.

Snowe and Collins prefer to think of themselves as “moderate” Republicans. “Liberal” is what comes to my mind.

I did send Ms. Snowe an email addressing core principles for healthcare reform. Attempting to completely redesign a working economic system is totally outside the scope of what is permissible by Congress. It’s beyond their level of expertise.

I read Baucus’ vapor bill. There are some very insiduous items in it, that are intended to lower the costs of healthcare. He is attempting to control everything — supply, demand, costs, quality, and quantity of healthcare. It’s impossible. It’s a Socialist’s wet dream.

There are simple solutions to make the healthcare system better, that don’t involve centralized gov’t control micro-managing every aspect. At every turn, competition should be encouraged by loosing the reins and restrictions on people to act. Not one of the various bills presented by Democrats does this.

– Dan Clamage

 

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