The Coming Margolies-Mezvinsky Effect?


In every election-changing close vote on legislation that passes in the U.S. House, there are two or three U.S. House Members who switch their vote at the last minute.

Usually, these are newbie House members, freshmen or sophomores who succumb to pressure from their leadership. They forget their own districts, and what they need to do to keep their jobs.

Thus, we are reminded of the case of Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-PA) who famously switched her vote to give then President Clinton his tax increase.

It was her vote that passed the bill.

The vote by Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-PA) was an expensive one: she lost the following year.

Here is how Wikepedia describes what happened:

“After defeating Republican Jon D. Fox in a close contest, she became a member of the 103rd Congress. However, she was not re-elected. Losing in 1994 to her 1992 opponent, she was one of 34 Democratic incumbents who were defeated in the Republican Revolution. Her defeat was blamed on her vote for President Bill Clinton’s controversial 1993 budget, for which she was the deciding vote. After the vote, Rep. Robert Walker (R-Pennsylvania) reportedly mocked her, jumping up and down and said “Goodbye, Marjorie” alluding to the fact that her deciding vote would cost her the seat.”

You can bet that any Democratic House member(s) who switches their vote to give Speaker Pelosi her health care victory will be targetted en masse, by the legions who are strongly opposed.

It will cost any last-minute-Democratic-House-vote-switching-member their seat. Of course, if the bill fails then there will be no Margolies-Mezvinsky Effect.

For those House Members who think they may collapse under leadership pressure, here is a tried and true method for avoiding that fate: hide. Vote and get off the House floor, turn off your cell phone and hide somewhere you can not be found. Not one of your usual haunts. And go alone, so you aren’t outed by your staff.

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Remember, Congress Cheered

susananne Thursday, November 5th at 9:23PM EST (link)

When she switched her vote, Congress cheered that they just inflicted the highest tax increase on the American people. Can you imagine what they’ll do knowing they got 1/6 of the economy and power over the people.

~susananne

 

Not-so-secret method for Blue Dogs to keep their jobs in 2010

6eorge Jetson Thursday, November 5th at 9:25PM EST (link)

1) Vote no & oppose ZeroCare™

2) Vote no & oppose Cap on Trade

3) Vote no & oppose Card Check if it comes up

You can step around the tsunami that’s rising to oppose out-of-control government. With the perks of incumbency, and a well run campaign, you should be able to keep your job.

Or you can acquiese to ZeroCare™ et. al. and try to emerge victorious against the tidal wave. Good luck with that. Better start lining up a job for 2011 now if you’re gonna try that.


Hold off on that Mammogram for 10 years

Blue Dogs are going to have to switch

izoneguy Thursday, November 5th at 9:46PM EST (link)

allegiances to keep their jobs….

If they don’t vote for Pelosi’s crap then the democrats will black-ball them and throw them under the bus……

If they do vote for it then the conservatives will declare war on them.

They are going to lose no matter what they do.

“When the government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”
Thomas Jefferson

Perhaps we should be urging

DerKrieger Thursday, November 5th at 11:32PM EST (link)

…many of these Blue Dogs to switch parties? That would cripple Pelosi now rather than in 2010.

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” - Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence (OBAMACARE – mine), the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

My fantasy is ...

joayn Thursday, November 5th at 11:59PM EST (link)

that Blue Dogs would hold a press conference and announce a party change. All of them changing would be too much to ask, so how about 20? I would love to see Nancy’s head explode like a grenade hit it.

Seriously, as I was watching Michelle Bachman today, I thought if just one Blue Dog walked up to the microphone …

Can you imagine the change in dynamics if any of them changed? Oooh, I’m feeling tingles up my leg!

They could always try to take the leadership

JoeG Friday, November 6th at 12:08AM EST (link)

If they approached the Republican leadership and said “vote for one of us” as speaker of the house, the Republicans could play along. That would kick out Nancy from the speakership too.

Dems going to Repubs to "play ball"?

voxoreason Friday, November 6th at 10:03AM EST (link)

I don’t know if this has been mentioned, but the clerk of the House web site lists 257 dems, 177 repubs, and 1 vacancy. This last is a link that notes the vacancy is NY District 23 (guess who?), so it’s no longer vacant.

Given the previous 257-177 split, assuming 40 Blue Dogs with the cojones to switch, if all 40 moved to the right, it would stand at 217-217. Of course, other dems might consider the “rats deserting a sinking ship” option and…

However, with Owens replacing “vacancy,” the dems would have a 1-vote majority, although in case of the previous “tie,” surely we can guess which way the vice-pres would go in fulfilling his constitutional duty (even if he is not really clear on how the Constitution affects him, judging from his faux pas in the veep debate in ‘08). Then again, in re to the Margolies-Mezvinsky Effect, this would be a virtual high-wire balancing act.

Very creative idea, though. As the thug said in Robocop, “I LIKE it!!!” Don’t see it happening, but very creative.

VP only breaks ties in the Senate.

ceili_dancer Friday, November 6th at 10:21AM EST (link)
 
 
 

That reminds me of a caller yesterday

LDahl752 Friday, November 6th at 2:06PM EST (link)

to Mark Levin’s show. It was hilarious. A guy called him, saying he lives on Rolaids and beer. He suggested that a whole bunch of Blue Dogs should switch parties right now so Pelosi could be removed as Speaker. He said Mark could make it happen if he just encouraged them. So, Mark said, “Okay, Blue Dogs, switch parties right now. 1 - 2 - 3.” Then, he chuckled like he does. Too funny!

Linda D, Henderson NV

 
 
 
 

Are you admitting that I'm right?

bs Thursday, November 5th at 9:30PM EST (link)

Remember - I said healthcare socialization was going to pass. I thought you were pretty sure it wouldn’t. Are you now saying that my theory about Congressional irrationality is correct?

Decorum is fo’ suckas

I am so glad you asked

Dan Perrin Friday, November 6th at 1:13AM EST (link)

The Speaker is still more than 10 votes short, and no, I do not think it will pass.

:-)

bs Friday, November 6th at 8:48AM EST (link)

I figured you were waiting for me…

Decorum is fo’ suckas

 
 
 

Watching them squirm no matter what they do

E Pluribus Unum Thursday, November 5th at 9:30PM EST (link)

I have to confess, this does not cause me to lose sleep at night. Congressional Democrat is another term for freedom-hating traitor to the Founding Fathers.

Carthago delenda est

 

Screw Pelosi

DerKrieger Thursday, November 5th at 9:32PM EST (link)

Why is anyone afraid of Pelosi? She isn’t the person that elects them. Why would you walk the plank for a woman who won’t leave her position until she dies because of her ultra safe seat? She can’t do anything to them except deny them some positions on a committee. She would be foolish to burn them, especially if she needs their votes down the road. I’d tell her to go to Hell. And then I’d switch parties.

I suggested to my Senator, Lincoln D-AR, that she switch.

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” - Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence (OBAMACARE – mine), the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

RSVP to the GOP

Hammer2008 Thursday, November 5th at 10:08PM EST (link)

DerKrieger, I concur. Minority Leader Bohner should follow Dan’s advice and offer up a “mutiny free” room… those democrats that vote no on the +/- 3,000 page HealthSnare bill can seek cover in various GOP offices around the Capitol and think long and hard if they’re up for switching parties.

Remember, some 1,000 democrats from local office to Senate switched under Clinton… no reason they can’t start early.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Too much noise! “Noise! You’ll have noise enough before long. The Regulars are coming out.” ~ Paul Revere (April 18th, 1775’s eve…)

Absolutely agree

joayn Friday, November 6th at 12:05AM EST (link)

one gazillion percent.

 
 
 

Thanks, used this diary for letter to Rep. Schauer

Hammer2008 Thursday, November 5th at 10:42PM EST (link)

that and the Wiki site. Figure his staff will want to hit “delete” upon seeing a “redstate” URL in the letter.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Too much noise! “Noise! You’ll have noise enough before long. The Regulars are coming out.” ~ Paul Revere (April 18th, 1775’s eve…)

 

Her son is marrying Chelsea Clinton

susananne Thursday, November 5th at 11:08PM EST (link)

Chelsea Clinton is engaged to Marjorie’s son, so I guess it was worth it. Heh

~susananne

 

Call me crazy

DerKrieger Thursday, November 5th at 11:12PM EST (link)

…but if any Blue Dog votes with Pelosi in spite of the fact that they are at high risk of losing next year I think they will have been paid to take a fall. I wouldn’t be surprised if George Soros has made them all substantial financial offers. Keep an eye on their finances or post election spending changes. Nothing else could possibly explain voting for certain political death. Nothing.

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” - Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence (OBAMACARE – mine), the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

 

Question: if healthcare passes, how will we undo it? nt

Xasteius Thursday, November 5th at 11:19PM EST (link)

Don’t leave the party, hijack it back!

Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.

When I grow up, I don’t want to be Reagan. I want to be Art Chance.
~Aaron Gardner

Kowalski: because government programs once passed

Xasteius Thursday, November 5th at 11:23PM EST (link)

are hard to kill. And we’d need a 2/3 majority to get anything done.

Don’t leave the party, hijack it back!

Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom.

When I grow up, I don’t want to be Reagan. I want to be Art Chance.
~Aaron Gardner

About Right

Swamp_Yankee Thursday, November 5th at 11:30PM EST (link)

It irks me when some people would prefer to let the liberals have their agenda in order to win some votes in 2010 and 2012. Even if we win some, we are not going to win by the margins needed to overturn legislation. We havent been able to do squat about medicaid, medicare or social security.

We have four bullets to dodge for the next one year

kyle8 Friday, November 6th at 7:11AM EST (link)

Deathcare, Crap and Tax, card check, and net neutrality.

If we can either outright kill those or water them down to nothing, then in about one year we will have many more opponents in both houses and they will get nothing done.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

Exactly. Those four are the real opponents.

6eorge Jetson Friday, November 6th at 8:45AM EST (link)

A slim Republican majority isn’t the critical mass necessary to overturn those four once enacted. But conservatism may very well have the critical mass today to stop those from being enacted.

I will be relieved if Blue Dogs co-opt the conservative agenda to keep their jobs in 2010. Gridlock ain’t so bad while living under ZeroCare™, Cap on Trade, Card Check, and Net Neutered would be awful.


Hold off on that Mammogram for 10 years

 
 
 
 
 

The Same Way We've Undone

Swamp_Yankee Thursday, November 5th at 11:23PM EST (link)

Medicaid, medicare and social security. We wont. I could write a whole diary on this.

I must be stopped.

 

Nancy scares the hello out of these guys ...

joayn Friday, November 6th at 12:21AM EST (link)

Remember the cap and tax bill? Members were hiding from her, only to be cornered before the vote. They were absolutely terrified of her.

I agree with DerKrieger, except I would go on FOX and state that I would not lie to the American people or my constituents by supporting this bill, and because of the pressure to do so, I would be changing parties as well as voting no. I’d also throw in the line that I wasn’t leaving the Democrat party, it left me.

I heart RR.

 

Unfortunately

Adjoran Friday, November 6th at 1:05AM EST (link)

most of the “Blue Dogs” aren’t conservatives in any respect these days. When the group was first formed, many were, and many more were moderately conservative and strong on security issues. But those early classes ended up either switching parties, losing, or retiring.

Those claiming “Blue Dog” status now - and there are almost 100 of them in this Congress, which should tell you right away there’s nothing conservative involved - are liberals who don’t quite foam at the mouths representing conservative-leaning constituencies.

Given the history and reputation of “Blue Dogs” as conservative Democrats who were independent of the liberal party leadership, it’s a great label to be able to sport, especially when it doesn’t require any particular measure of conservative voting at all anymore.

So don’t be so anxious to invite these guys to switch, which would cede them the seat without cleansing their liberal ways.

My gut feeling is that the current class of “Blue Dogs” includes few heroes. Most of these will knuckle under to Comrade Nancy, if not for her reputation for ruthless vengeance then in awe of her truly frightening countenance, frozen for posterity in its most horrible contortion by leftist plastic surgeons. Those who don’t will only rebel after having arranged beforehand either safe passage to the other side of the aisle or witness protection.

The good news is that this means a good many of them will go down of their own weight in 2010. The bad news is they can do a lot of permanent damage between now and then.

 

New Freshman John Giramendi

california_red Friday, November 6th at 1:16AM EST (link)

is so excited to get to Washington to vote for the Pelosi healthcare bill. I saw an article today where he said his defeated opponent ran on the “TeaBagger” agenda and that what his district wanted was big government solutions. I hope we see the Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky effect here next fall.

Garamendi was expected to win--

dudette Friday, November 6th at 8:04AM EST (link)

because of demographics of the district—–doesnt he have to wait to be sworn in after the holidays?

 
 

ZELL MILLER where are you?

revwarheropeterfrancisco Friday, November 6th at 8:35AM EST (link)

Time to dust off Zell Miller. Fox News, Rush etc should track him down and interview him. He should have been invited to that Capitol yesterday.

Maybe you guy can Treack him down, dust him off and bring him back to Hero Status, America needs ZELL MILLER and his spitballs to cripple the EROSIONIST PARTY.

 

Cowards

dclamage Friday, November 6th at 8:36AM EST (link)

Bunch of cowards.

Any rep who can’t stand up to Pelosi and vote their principles, conscience and their constituents doesn’t deserve to be our rep.

But if they run and hide, and vote NO for this horrendous legislation that allows the State to claim it owns my body or forces me to pay tribute, then we may just keep them around a littl while longer.

– Dan Clamage

 

Votes Have Consequences

distantfires Friday, November 6th at 10:35AM EST (link)

I am not sure, but I think President Clinton appointed her to some government position until she ‘got back on her feet.’

I think votes should have consequences and long for the days when the electorate begins acting independently as in ‘94′ and not let ratings driven commentators on Fox and MSNBC influence them.

Perhaps New Jersey, Virginia and NY 23 are harbingers?

 

Why is this bill so HUGE? So that it can be "Too Big To FaiL"

revwarheropeterfrancisco Friday, November 6th at 1:38PM EST (link)

The is Job Security for the Erosionist Lieberal Party.

Just think about it:
Who will be the “experts” that will interpet this mounstrosity to “the masses”?
We will need 1000’s upon 1000’s of arbitrators and interpetrers who will not mend a wound or heal a soul. They will stay on for LIFE because no one else will undertsand what was “shovelled: together in the MedicalManure. Who will they be? The “experts” that wrote the bill. WHo is that? Mostly all Erosionist Lieberals that we will NEVER be able to get rid of without Picthforks and Torches.

KILL THE BILL before it KILLS ALL

 

Why throw yourself on a sword of Plastic?

vassar Saturday, November 7th at 7:15AM EST (link)

Talking heads heads already say a health care bill is dead in the Senate this year, no matter how they toss out in conference.
Something’s not right, as why would a congressman hang his career on a bill to pass in the House when it’s already dead in the Senate?
Somebody’s wrong somewhere. Either the Senate sword has more steel in it than most allow, or, as we all hope, the big, and FINAL vote will be today. If it fails, look for Nancy to be nudged out.
Obama is already all-in. Nancy seems to want to go that way (her delusions of grandeur and grand dame exceed even Obama’s I think), Reid still quakes.
Like June 6, 1944 it is a day we can only watch, wait and pray.

If it passes, as suggested some time back on our Least Men Standing site, it may be time for the GOP to freeze them out, and begin singling out “switchers” in the Dems with the mark of Cain, the ice cold 1000 yard stare.
Vassar

 

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