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Senator Reid’s Vapor Deal — Updated

By: Dan Perrin (Diary)  |  December 9th, 2009 at 02:27 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

In a classic have-it-both-ways-moment, Senator Reid has been selling the media and the public the following story line: in a breakthrough deal we took out the public option, but its not dead.

Uh, huh. The deal that was supposed to buy off Senator Lieberman’s opposition to any form of a public option, did not kill the public option. So, if you don’t kill the public option, how do you get Senator Lieberman’s vote?

Perhaps if we look a the details of the Senator Reid’s “deal” we can understand it better. The New York Times, said this morning that “Mr. Reid refused to provide details” about this widely reported, alleged breakthrough.

Senator Reid has a deal — trust him — he just cannot tell you about it. Why can’t Senator Reid provide details? Because according to Senator Lieberman, “there is no legislative language.” Senator Lieberman said this morning:

“My opposition to a government-run insurance option, including any option with a trigger, has been clear for months and remains my position today.

“Regarding the ‘Medicare buy-in’ proposal that is being discussed, we must remain vigilant about protecting and extending the solvency of the program, which is now in a perilous financial condition.

“It is my understanding that at this point there is no legislative language so I look forward to analyzing the details of the plan and reviewing analysis from the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid.”

This does not sound like a guy ready to sign on the dotted line.

The Reid “deal” has no legislative language and the one Senator who the deal is supposed to placate is instead using phrases like being “vigilant about protecting and extending the solvency” of Medicare and that he is going to read the fine print — when it exists. In other words, Senator Lieberman is not supporting the Reid vapor deal.

If Senator Lieberman does not buy the vapor deal once he reads the fine print, then Senator Snowe is unlikely to save Senator Reid — since her concerns center around expanding Medicare and expanding the government’s involvement in health care.

And what are two of the other Dem Senators whose votes are in play saying? The Hill reports:

“Two centrist Democrats at the center of the Senate’s tense healthcare reform negotiations insisted that there has been no compromise deal on the legislation despite Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) pronouncements.

“There’s no specific compromise. There were discussions,” Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) said at a press conference Wednesday.

“According to Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), sending the bill to the CBO was about all the 10 senators agree to do. “We got to a point where we couldn’t go any further until we got scores,” she said. “There are a lot of things on the table still and until, you know, we hear back from CBO it’s going to be hard to see whatever I can support, for sure.”

Finally, the last point of execution of any “deal” Senator Reid puts on paper is to get the 60 votes needed to take out the public option to get Senator Lieberman’s vote — and therein lies the rub, if you are a liberal, you will have to vote to kill the public option.

Here’s the Ace of Spades HQ take on the Reid Vapor deal and here is the Daily Kos (progressive) take on some of the Democratic Senator’s reactions:

“Lieberman is already whining about the trigger that is included. Providers–including hospitals, doctors, and insurers- and rural state senators, including Conrad and Dorgan, are raising hell about the buy-in, arguing that “Medicare’s lower reimbursement rates would shift costs to private payers and disadvantage hospitals in rural districts.”

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COMMENTS

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  • RealQuiet

    I’ve seen these tactics from Pelosi and Reid before. This could like a trial balloon to gauge what their liberal base will do if the public option is taken out, re-wording the legislative language but we would all know its still the public option or something far worse (expanding Medicare to age 55), a way to shore up Obamacare’s cratering numbers by depressing the opposition because it’s “inevitable” something is going to be done, or just to give the impression that Dingy Harry is doing something. With Nelson’s amendment going down yesterday, Nelson is in a very bad place right now. If he votes for cloture on a bill that has federal funding of abortion, he is through. Lieberman and Snowe don’t look that enthused either. In summary by looking at everything, it doesn’t look like anything is going to come out of the Senate by the Christmas recess. If this gets pushed into next year, the odds of passing Obamacare are next to nil.

    • bk

      is that they WANT to vote for a healthcare reform bill. So at the end of the day Reid will do what it takes to get Lieberman to sign, and Snowe will say if it’s good enough for him it’s good enough for her.

      Nelson might prefer to vote for a HCR bill, but I don’t think he’d lose any sleep if he was the 41st vote to slow it down.

      I hope I’m wrong, but this sure seems close to a done deal to me. Reid threw Nelson under the bus, which means he must be pretty sure he can get Lieberman and Snowe even though he’d thrown her under the bug as soon as she voted for the Baucus bill in committee.

      • Illinicon

        to get re-elected in 2012 and wont have the war issue because we will certainly be out of Iraq in accordence with the SOFA Bush and Al-Malaki signed last year and either Afghanastan will be on the process of being fixed or Barry would have surrendred by then. So he needs a new reason for conservatives to flock to him and it seems fiscal responsibilty is the issue he has picked.

        • countessolenska

          I agree that he will need them because he’s not going to get much Democratic support. And, I think he has known that for some time.

          However, why did Lieberman support expansion of Medicare in the past when he was running with Gore?

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Lieberman has very pragmatic reasons for resisting the Public Option in all forms.

          • Dan Perrin

            Lieberman also picks up the business communities vote, especially the large insurance community in CT.

            Good call Swamp_Yankee.

          • http://andrightlyso.com/ civil_truth

            Had he simply voted against taking this bill up for consideration, insisting that the bill be changed first. That would have put him in the driver’s seat.

            By voting for cloture to open debate, he left the door open to be bought off on the public option issue (by protecting his insurance companies) while still satisfying his domestic liberal urges to pass a federal healthcare bill.

            The evidence thus indicates that he’s just looking for the right price – and a large enough fig leaf to keep his voter coalition together.

          • Illinicon

            The skeptical reason being he was a Democrat and that is popular with Democrats and now he is not or giving him the benefit of the doubt the economy and the viability of the Medicare trust fund was in better shape then.

      • Dan Perrin

        Lieberman needs to vote no for his election in CT.

        He will win in 2010 if he kills ObamaCare.

        He will pick up 90% of the Republicans, the independents by a ratio of 2:1, and about 25% of the Democrats.

        With one vote, Lieberman locks up his election.

        • red_oakster

          Lieberman may or may not have a tough time in 2012. Way too early to tell. In the meantime, it’s pretty clear that the Dems don’t have 60 votes yet, notwithstanding all of Harry’s histrionics. What is interesting is that Clintoncare didn’t truly die until September of 1994, when the Senate Finance committee refused to move it to the floor. So it’s reasonable to expect that the Dems won’t stop trying for quite awhile. We will need to remain vigilant.

          • Dan Perrin

            but the MSM is overselling this Reid deal — they needed to be called on it

    • Dan Perrin

      flames make Nelson more or less likely to vote to end the filibuster?

      It makes him much less likely to be the vote Reid needs, I think.

      And even if they get Lieberman eventually, which I doubt, they still need Nelson.

      • Richard Mullins

        in other words, the same number of votes for the amendment. If we toke Lieberman out, we would have only 54. If the ME girls are out of voting, it’s only 52. It seems like Reid needs to break some arms in order to get the result he wants.

  • bobojake

    on the Cold Rock in front of Terrible Hearst Gas Station. poof poof it was gone.

    • Dan Perrin

      pls elaborate

  • mas1916

    Searchlight Harry’s great ‘deal’ with Democrats is the oldest political trick in the book – and one that will be supported by the formerly main stream media. When liberals have an idea shot down (such as public option) they simply name it something else and call it a breakthrough.

    In addition to this, ‘ol Harry won’t release the details o the agreement. If this was a great deal, it wouldn’t need to be secret.

    • Richard Mullins

      We need to harp on the fact of a backroom deal going and make sure it’s quite loudly heard.

    • Dan Perrin

      that Harry Reid doesn’t know what it says — because it hasn’t been written yet.

      • bk

        does it really matter whether they are actually written yet? ;-)

  • restofva

    There is know way I could keep up with all of this without all of your hard work. You’ve been on top of this from day one. Much appreciated.

    • Dan Perrin

      but thanks

      • clowngirl
    • Mayhem

      Dan is one of the top three or four bloggers covering this issue. He has kept me sane throughout this entire process. Plus, he does a great job of responding to the readers of his posts. Major props.

      • Dan Perrin

        but I was on a different continent, and without internet access for days, back in the USA now, though

        • penguin2

          Good you are back, because things are looking scary on this HC bill.

      • Third Street
  • Composer_Man

    I say don’t let Harry Reid set the tone by echoing throughout Washington that Obamacare is “inevitable”. He’s trying to break the will of opponents (at least among citizens) and create a vacuum into which he can step.

    Let’s circulate the notion that it is over – dead bill walking. I’m not giving up hope yet!

    • Dan Perrin

      senior staffers of one of the swing Senators told a colleague of mine yesterday that he thought last week that “something was going to pass,” and now he does not know if anything is going to pass.

      The Reid and White House have tried to paint a picture of something will pass and media have been active partners in that prediction but it keeps being delayed.

      But the Reid deal was really too much — the MSM are such slavish boot lickers of the Dems.

      They really must think the public is stupid.

      • Composer_Man

        As Sen. Kyl says in the interview linked below, this is not the first time Herr Reid has trumpeted a new compromise. However, whenever you scratch the surface of these reports, you find there’s not much there.

        The problem is that these announcements are made and everybody takes them at face value and scrambles to find out what is going on. On the lefty sites, they’re busy reading the entrails and speculating on who has sold them out now. We’re often not much better in bemoaning the dastardly capitulation of some politician we thought was with us.

        If I, a lowly [but informed] citizen in the hinterlands, recognize what is at stake, I have to believe the herd in D.C. does as well. I could be totally wrong and the 60 votes could materialize an hour from now, but I’m thinking they’re not sewed up yet. If they were, we would know.

        It’s not over until the fat lady sings. (I keep straining to hear if she’s warming up in the green room. No luck yet, but soon . . . ?)

        • countessolenska

          Those two are major opinion makers among the libs, and they think they are getting a great deal with this Medicare buy-in.

  • countessolenska

    http://healthcare.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjkzZmQ4NjI0MDNmZWYxNDgwNWE3OThlZmZiYzM4NTE=

    He claims that there are two to three Democrats who will join Republicans in opposition to the bill. He discusses the importance of Joe Lieberman, and says that Harry Reid does not have 60 votes. Bill Kristol is saying that Reid is trying to create a sense of inevitability about the bill with the headlines today about the compromise.

    Kyl also discusses the terrible consequences if this bill passes that most of us, as well as many in the country, have intuitively known for some time.

    • Dan Perrin

      he is forcing the GOP caucus to agree to unanimous consent agreements while ObamaCare is on the Senate floor

      I appreciate your comments, but the GOP leadership is playing nice-nice with Reid by agreeing to his unanimous consent agreements

      If the GOP is agreeing to Senator Reid’s unanimous consent agreements (i.e. they will not stand up to Ried) then why do they think any Dem is going to follow their profiles in weakness and stand up to Reid?

      • bk

        If they are only 99% sure they need to delay it.

        • Dan Perrin

          are not going to delay the bill in the interview linked to above by countessolenska

          So much for the scorched earth strategy or the holy war that Senator McConnell promised the public

          Limp Republicans

          • crosley

            I certainly don’t want to be over-confident, but the way Reid has been acting, (accusing Republicans of supporting slavery by not supporting health care) tells me he knows he’s losing.

            Usually, the coach of the team that’s winning doesn’t go running on the field screaming at the refs for a bad call. And the Republicans have been oddly cool and collected.

            My guess is, Republicans think they have the votes to kill this cleanly without playing “dirty”. At least the optimist in me wants to think that way.

            Jon Kyl is an incredibly shrewd Republican, I have some close friends who have ties to him, and he’s no fool. My guess is he has a very good reason for the strategy he’s using.

          • bk

            Heck he’d have to flip a coin to guess how his own party’s Olympia Snowe is going to vote!

          • clowngirl

            It’s pretty pathetic when the Majority Leader is resorting to rhetoric that would embarass a Huffpo blogger. (though he might fit in at the Daily Kos)

            Thank you for linking to the interview with Senator Kyl. It doesn’t sound like his intention is to “play nice” and allow a watered down Obamacare to pass. He stated unequivocally that he wants the bill defeated and they are doing all they can to kill it. I believe him.

            A couple of points I thought were especially encouraging:

            1. this is the 20th time Harry Reid has acted like there’s been some breakthrough deal and they’ve got the votes. They don’t have the votes and there’s not particular reason to suddenly think they will.

            2. This tentative “deal” is just something 10 Democrats hashed out and are sending to the CBO to be scored. It doesn’t have 60 votes behind it and there’s no particular reason to think it ever will.

            3. The Obamacare debate has already dragged on past several pseudo deadlines despite the Democrats having 60 votes in their caucus – that, in itself is a big accomplishment.

      • countessolenska

        I don’t know why he’s “playing nice-nice,” if that’s what you think he’s doing. Maybe he thinks the best strategy is, as he says in the interview, to point out the flaws in these bills as they go along.

        The key is to influence public opinion. I said a few weeks ago that they needed to drive the poll numbers down further (by 5 points at least) on these Dem health care reform proposals. Quinnipiac had a poll out today that by a 52 – 38 margin, people are opposed to the Dems’ health care reform bills. (People are oddly still supporting the public option in these polls though. I think they just like the idea of competition.) Things are definitely heading in the right direction if that Quinnipiac poll is accurate.

        • joayn

          involved in turning votes against the bill. Which three? Arkansas and who else?

          Great link, countess. Thanks.

      • clowngirl

        Lets say the worst happens and the Democrats line up 60 votes – can Republicans THEN drop the unanimous consent stuff and insist on reading the over 2000 page bill before the cloture vote? (while constituents melt the phones of the “blue dogs”, independents and RINOs.)

        • bk

          if even then

        • Dan Perrin

          It must be done NOW.

      • Illinicon

        and are going out of their way to make it as crystal clear to everyone paying attention that it was the Dems that killed this, so the Dems cant blame us even though the only leverage we have is procederal rules that if the Dems were united they could block. If it works it will be brilliant as our base gets pumped that it was defeated and the Dem base gets frustrated that their side fumbled this, leading to 1994 redux because the Dems wont show up.

  • crosley

    From my view, if the Senate bill hasn’t been voted on by Christmas, it’s probably dead. Now that Republicans have offered up amendments and played nice, how about throwing a monkey wrench into the gears and slowing it down to a crawl?

    If Coburn starts demanding the bill needs to be read out loud, it won’t get voted on by Christmas. The Democrat leadership knows that ANY health care bill is going to be incredibly unpopular, especially if current Medicare recipients are going to have hundreds of billions in cuts made in order to expand the coverage to millions of new people.

    Are Republicans keeping their powder dry, or did someone get to Coburn?

  • Dan Perrin

    like guns

    • The_Gadfly

      The AMA has decided they are a disease like cancer that needs to be controlled. Therefore it is entirely germane for Republican senators to offer amendments that reduce the odds of AMA policy being turned into law.

  • michigan

    Harry Reid is out. Hopefully in November of 2010.

  • roycooper

    Dan Perrine

    You should paid for this.

  • joayn

    to coerce Democrats into coming to a real agreement and pass this thing asap. That’s what I’ve been reading and seeing on Fox all night.

    Evidently, old Harry gambled and lost. Even the 10 Dems now say there is no deal, and that they weren’t under the impression that a compromise had been reached during the meeting they had with old Harry.

    I was suspicious last night after reading that Russ Feingold, who was one of the 10, didn’t seem to be on board with Reid’s announcement. Then Nelson backed off his cave and said he wouldn’t vote for the bill without abortion payment restrictions. He sounded real cranky, too.

    No matter – the Republicans must stop with the “play nice” stuff (always been their downfall). They have to remember that actions speak louder than words if they want to win the hearts and minds of the American people. It’s wylie coyote time.

    Watching Greta. Senator Hatch is on and just made the greatest statement: The Democrats are functioning on an arrogance of power.

  • countessolenska

    The Wall Street Journal editorial for tomorrow is bemoaning the way the Democrats are going about trying to pass this thing – sort of similar to the Orrin Hatch comments about the arrogance of power tonight on Greta. In making their point, the WSJ editorial praises Olympia Snowe’s speech in November about how this was too big and too serious a bill to have it rammed through Congress on a strictly partisan basis.

    The editorial mentions Webb and Bayh (in addition to the usual suspects of Lincoln, Landrieu and Nelson) as Democrats that probably aren’t happy right now about the way things are going and would prefer to vote on a bipartisan bill. But of course they would have to vote against this bill in order to get that opportunity. Would they? Or might some other principled Democrat emerge who is just tired of this White House and Reid browbeating, who wants to do the right thing by Americans?

    I’m thinking that if Bayh or Webb or Warner – all of whom may want to run for president someday – would risk incurring the wrath of the Obama crowd and the left wing of their party to do the right thing, they themselves would be better off in the long run politically – and they would be doing us all a big favor.

  • zuiko

    (if it actually existed) would do to the cost of the bill. Expanding Medicare to those 55 and up has to be crazy expensive.

  • OccamsRazor

    Thanks for the WaterCooler Updates.

    Let’s go get ‘em.

    • OccamsRazor

      Odds may appear to be against us, but let us not look upon this moment and have a single regret for having left anything on the battlefield. Let us not wait and see how it unfolds, but instead be proactive in defeating this grandiose legislation upon our very souls.

  • erod

    while I don’t think it’s time to be getting giddy, I think that this bill is starting to fall apart. They say they’re taking out the public option and then Reid says it’s still in. He does not have 60 votes yet, even though that could change. Don’t get me wrong I’m still scared crapless, but do you think that the bill could be suffocating slowly?

    Oh, and by the way could anyone tell me when the Christmas recess is for Congress and does anyone think they’ll skip it and stay in session?

    • OccamsRazor

      Upon said legislation more than any politician ever wants, by it’s nature. Understanding the nature of beast is the best way to slay it. Timing is not everything, but it applies here nonetheless.

      As a thought experiment, imagine if every senator voting upon this piece of legislation were up for election tomorrow?

      • OccamsRazor

        Which, by the way, they are and some appear to not even know it.

  • sarge324

    ever congressman and senator knows reid big lies.and they vote for it.my god is there a true american anywhere in government who will stand up and say.stop,do not vote for this bill.americans our freedom is at stake.the childern will be hurt the most.they want them under their thumbs.control them and kill freedom.

  • redpens

    he sees his political future flashing right before his beady little eyes.

    • Dan Perrin

      http://www.hsacoalition.org/2009/12/10/oh-and-then-there-is-this/index.php?print=1

      • countessolenska

        I think if the health care plan gets down to 35%, the Democrats will retreat, but that’s just a guess.

        They’re still trying to influence public opinion by saying they have some kind of compromise deal, as if dropping the public option will make people think the bill isn’t as “big government” as it is.

        The Reason people had a great article today about how vehement the public option supporters have been about keeping this in the bill.

        http://reason.com/archives/2009/12/09/progressives-democracy-health

        • Menlo
  • mkj350

    And I mean literally stink. If they remove abortion stuff and public option stuff from the bill to get their wobbly dem cohorts to vote for it, the abortion funding and the public option will just be put back in when the house and senate have to “homogenize” a final bill – which WILL be passed by the house. This is just more dirty, underhanded trickery to keep pushing the bill up the rungs until it gets back to the house. In my entire life, I’ve never witnessed such blatant disregard for the will of the people.

    • realskinny

      Fidel and Hugo don’t worry about elections. Lenin never did. 90 % come from areas which have been miserably governed for a generation but still vote for the gangsters. I think this is a result of the ignorance and bias of socialist education, 24/7 propaganda from the media and massive election fraud. Absentee voting is up to 30 % in some areas. Even high unemployment doesn’t worry them.. Dead people don’t need jobs.

  • countessolenska

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/09/AR2009120903902.html

    Politico called it “scathing.”