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The Red Queen Does Not Have the Votes

By: Dan Perrin (Diary)  |  March 19th, 2010 at 01:07 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Speaker Pelosi does not have the YES votes she needs, but the Dems insist on voting on ObamaCare on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, uh, Sunday. Hoyer said this morning they still don’t have the votes. FireDogLake’s count is at 192 Yes votes, with the No votes rising to 208. Staff of No voting Representatives and Members know the Leadership does not have the votes.

Do not believe that just because they have set the vote for sometime “after” 2 pm on Sunday, that they have the votes.

For example, the Republicans called the vote to expand Medicare on Prescription Drugs without having the votes. They knew they were two short, key lobbyists knew they were two short and getting those two took three and a half hours of the vote being held open.

But the Dems are much farther away. I put them at nine or ten votes down.

And this vote is far more politically dangerous and damaging than giving Seniors prescription drug coverage.

The key questions are will the undecideds make a decision sooner than later — and will they decide Yes?

Inside the beltway, the easy call is Yes — your Dem leadership and White House will love you.

But the hard answer is No.

No is prevailing. Getting to 216 is a math question. Missing the mark means failure. They are at failure.

The strain is getting to people, I know. There are some who are so wound up and so tired and so stressed they just want it over — observers and players in this drama.

Have a drink, get a massage, or watch a movie for some time today or exercise. Turn off your television. Read your news. It gives you a much better perspective. You need it. Give yourself four or five hours of mental health break time. Both sides need it, frankly.

Here is one other thing. There are some Republicans who want it to pass because they know the damage to the Democrats will last a decade, the Republicans will be in charge, and they will benefit. They smell the Chairman’s gavel and the staff smell the majority.

Beware of those who claim — wisely, they say — that the Dems will find the votes.

Even though Pelosi’s vote buying has been extensive, they have not found the votes. Turning on a river is a new level of federal abuse of power and desperation on the part of the Democrats. The Speaker turned on a river in California to buy two yes votes from Democrats Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa.

The word-on-the-street is the Rep. Dennis Kucinich vote was bought with a job for his wife in the First Lady’s empire, er, office. At least his wife is happy, right?

Other Dems have their payoffs — Rep. Earl Pomeroy got an exemption for his favorite bank to from the Student Loan take-over by the Feds.

But Obama’s Gallup approval rating continues to drop, to a new low of 48% disapproval. Passing the bill in the House will make this worse.

Passing the Senate bill on Christmas Eve helped to elect Scott Brown. The public became angry and scared. They sent a message. It has been ignored. But the Massachusetts Dems are having trouble with this fact, and they are seriously looking at Yes to No to save their skins.

Suicide bombing sounds great to fanatics — but if your not a fanatic, well, you think long and hard about your life and your survival.

Slowly it is dawning on the Democrats that thousands of new IRS agents and tanking poll numbers are directly tied to health care.

The new White House line of the Dems’ fate being tied to the White House is so disingenuous.

The reason the Members are in trouble politically is because the White House is insisting on doing something the public hates, and they will not stop, “will not quit” pushing their poison.

The White House and the Speaker are putting the Members in harms way, and then telling them they must agree to solve the problem the Speaker and the White House created for them by voting Yes.

Some House Dems understand this. Rep. Chet Edwards, for example, who told Politico “”it’s clear to me they could care less about my political future.”

And more Dems are realizing it.

Then the House Leadership tells House Members that the House will force the Senate to magically make all these changes in the Senate. But please ignore the fact that Senate Dems will not promise or agree to in advance because they know many of the changes will not happen.

Fundamentally, it is irrational what the Speaker and the White House are doing.

Do not confuse their irrationality with having the votes. They don’t have the votes. And it is getting harder to find the votes.

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  • rsexteriors

    I just can’t understand why even FOX news of all networks is out there reporting, every couple minutes, that they have 215 votes and only need one more vote.

    it is driving me NUTS.

    • writeblock

      DeFazio of Oregon has switched from undecided to no.

      • renny

        disturbed” by the process. Whadda understatement.

        But we picketed him again today, and townhalled him last Sat., and I think he knows his one term may really be one term.

    • builder20

      news shows want you to keep watching! What better way than to keep you locked in by stating the numbers are closer than they really are!

      Turn it off. I did and I feel WAYYY better!

  • Aaron Gardner

    I will also toss in this quote from Rush earlier today …

    The game isn’t over … they’ve announced kickoff, on Sunday

  • http://dezignworx-ae.com tsquare

    …To God’s ears.

    Dan I hope and pray you are right.
    I fear you are wrong.

    • http://www.marklaiminger.org Lammo
  • Swamp_Yankee

    That FDL count is a day old. Here is the newest one.

    http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/health-care-whip-count-updates-titus-yes-kaptur-lean-yes-195-firm-yes-208-firm-no/

    Yeah they are down, but they have some movement in their direction. The Hill took Lincoln Davis off its “NO” and into undecided. Titus is a confirmed yes. Rahall is just looking for cover. What bothers me is Rahll, Kaptur and the weak Stupak Dems and their side deal. That needs to be exposed as a fraud. Rahall said five to ten may peel off if they get that deal.

    Time to relax? No way.

    Had a great conversation with some Lynch’s staffers. Used some of their talking points and called up Capuano and Tireney.

    • RealQuiet

      But realistically, it is looking like the bill won’t pass if I look at their count. They are really ticked about Acuri but I think Acuri holds because he is with his constituents.

      • Sundayjack

        Unless something has changed in the last day or so, FDL is opposed to the senate bill. Even with the fixes.

      • Swamp_Yankee

        I think they have been the best with The Hill.

        The Hill had a couple of NOs that had never been confirmed like Lincoln Davis, who just bailed. They’ve got a couple of others who could bolt too.

        That 36 they have listed isnt solid.

        • LibertarianHawk

          The Hill’s “No” list included a number of leaners who were probably better off in the “Undecided” category.

          I’m thinking we’ll end up with about 35 Dems voting “No” when it’s all said and done.

          • writeblock

            There have been some surprises. Zack Space went from yes to leaning no. Lynch seems like a firm no. DeFazio was on nobody’s radar. He just switched to no. There are a lot of surprises we can expect.

          • LibertarianHawk

            This was just to let Pelosi know that he must have the Medicare reimbursement disparity fix put back in and that it’s not a bluff (which it probably is a bluff, but I disgress) after she said “No more changes.”

            I understand that a couple other Dems are in the same boat. But, then, I don’t know what Pelosi risks by putting the reimbursement disparity fix back.

            Seriously, I wouldn’t be chalking up DeFazio’s vote. If losing him and potentially others would prevent passage, the fix will be put back in the bill.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Timing is everything here. If they cant get the committments before Sunday, the Senate cant act before Easter, the recon package will be dead, other House Dems will bolt.

            Bobby Rush just moved to very undecided. If all these matters need to be corrected. It is less likely they will have the affirmative 216 by Saturday evening to move.

            Also, DeFazio is influencing others. Kind is on the fence over the issue and it it more help persuade other more inclined to vote no inthe long run.

          • LibertarianHawk

            Even if he doesn’t end up getting the reimbursement fix reinstated, I think DeFazio and others clamoring for this will end up as Ayes.

    • JSobieski

      So we will hear about a surge of newly discovered “yes” votes. This doesn’t mean we are losing.

      • Swamp_Yankee

        I think both sides are crazy; the pessimists and the wishfull thinkers.

        It could go either way. And which way ti goes may depend how much pressure the Dems get from both sides.

        Its not all rosey for us. There is bad news and we cant run from that reality.

        Its not over for us. We can win this and we cannot forget that.

        • writeblock

          …doesn’t mean it must pass. Nobody ever thought it wouldn’t be a tough fight. But why give the left the victory at this point–when we can still win? Sure they’ve got muscle–but so have we. They’ve got backroom deals, we’ve got constituents fit to be tied.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Give the left a victory?

    • writeblock

      the GOP needs to keep from supporting whatever he comes up with–since it would serve to pass HC. The deal needs to fail for the whole thing to fail.

      • conservativemusician

        Let’s hope that that they won’t fall for it again and not factor in their own political calculations based on false fears that they won’t be seen as pro-life enough it they don’t support it.

        BTW, love your posts. Keep it up! :-) CM

        • sarg01

          Because the pro-abortionists have said they won’t vote for it. Last time, Pelosi crammed it in shortly before and even Planned Parenthood didn’t realize what was in it until the morning of the vote, and didn’t have time to get their congresscritters to object.

          Even if it were to pass the House, it would be guaranteed to get stripped in the Senate … which would result in requiring a whole new House vote.

          • Doc Holliday

            this “Star Wars Cantina Scene” of a demonrat coalition is so fragile that if you please one faction, you lose others. I still think they will pass it though, too many times the eunuchs have won to trick me into false bravado. Of course we will still fight them until we do win.

          • conservativemusician

            But these are not normal circumstances as Obama and Pelosi are trying to subvert the constitution with this deemed passed crap. No one has ever pushed our country to the brink of destruction like this despot Obama.

            Rush has been addressing this on his show in recent days in that Obama will consider anything that gets to his desk as signed law. He wants to bypass the Senate debating this again because he knows it will go down in flames. He also knows all the deals he is making the House Dems will not hold. He just wants anything to get to his desk so he can sign it. This is why Mark Levin and others will probably be filing suit on Sunday as soon as this thing is done.

            I really think this will go all the way to the Supreme Court before all is said and done. Of course this is totally unconsitutional and, in my view, are impeaachable offenses, but God knows what the Supreme Court will do with this as the Dems keep claiming this is not the first time the Slaughter Rule has been attempted.

  • makemyday

    He is saying at this moment the Dems are 10-11 votes shy. Have to have faith people, we all believe in something far more epherial than this. The Dems don’t have the votes, the Dems will not get the votes, the Dems will be gone in November.

    So buck up people and keep up the pressure! We are winning, we will win!

    • LibertarianHawk

      They’re picking off a number of crucial votes that would’ve had to go our way to defeat the bill.

      Looks like Kaptur will vote Y. So will Scott Murphy. The fact that Jason Altmire voted yesterday to bless the DemonPass isn’t a good sign.

      We’re fast running out of ways to get to 38 opposed Democrats. I wish it wasn’t the case, and I don’t want to dispirit anybody. But it is what it is.

      • JSobieski

        So of course you are going to hear about more Y declarations.

        The DemonPass vote was irrelevant for the purposes of divining how Altmire will ultimately vote.

      • writeblock

        There have been no votes on our side to counter these switches. Fox just announced Defazio has switched from yes to no. (The Hill had him on their undecided list.) Lynch now looks like a no. Space is a likely no. We’re doing fine.

        • LibertarianHawk

          And I also hope we’re not counting on Peter DeFazio’s vote.

          All I’m saying is that the possible paths to 38 seem to be getting harder to find.

          I’m glad to hear that Lincoln Davis’ office is saying that he’s a “No”. I hope the person who told caseoftheblues that was up to speed.

          • JSobieski

            If it was up to them, there would never even be a vote. There is a reason for their reluctance. Nancy has to convince people to do something they don’t want to do. We woujld be happy if the vote never happens—our interests are aligned with their interests

  • miconservative

    I think Fox’s whip count is ridiculous. Firedoglake sure doesn’t sound optimistic. Dems are in deep doo-doo right now and their members are all wee-wee-’ed up. Dan is right that the math is getting very difficult. The American people need to stay engaged and the GOP members in DC need to stay on message. How does an Army of 16,000 or more IRS agents improve healthcare? How does spending a trillion dollars on a new entitlement lower the deficit? We also cannot allow the pro-life dems to be bought off with some letter promising future action on abortion. That letter would not be worth the paper it is printed on and we cannot allow anyone to say they are pro-life to wave such a letter around. Keep up the fight!!

  • penguin2

    I, and I am sure many others appreciate your work, the stress you obviously have had, and the aggravation….

    I know the Dems are scheming, I know they are prevaricating, I know they are weasels. If they had the votes, they would have voted and broke out the champagne. They would have been front and center with the media to rub our noses in it. No one is running around bragging about their yes votes, they are looking for cover. Maybe their brethren will pay attention to the doom that is going to confront so many come November.

    As I said, thank you. I hope you are getting some rest…..

  • tdpwells

    Watching the vote live on CSPAN that day as reps dawdle about the floor while we sit there in our living rooms, watching the tally slowly move, waiting to see if America is about to get shot in the heart.

    Note that I didn’t say fatal shot, but a shot nonetheless.

  • jimmuy8

    they could sell already, what does the leadership have to offer?
    They will have no power after this year; no more committee chairs, no more taxpayer funded trips, no more earmarks (especially there as the new Republican majority will be keen to wipe out earmarks of former Dem Congressmen).
    None of them will make it past a Senate confirmation for any cushy executive job.
    K Street doesn’t need any more “former” Congressmen–especially if they lost re-election.
    Obama will be toxic this fall–no one he campaigns for will win because of him; many will lose because of him though.

    They have nothing left to sell but worthless words and empty threats. And maybe the love/hate of a base that will, as soon as this fails, blame them for not making it socialist enough.

    • houstoneagle

      if we don’t win the Senate I will be disappointed, but if we don’t take control of the House, I will be CRUSHED.

  • kewgardens

    LINCOLN DAVIS is jumping ship from no to yes.

    I had counted on him as a dependable no vote.

    Dan, the yes votes keep creeping up. The pressure on some of these folks must be tremendous, I just don’t know if enough will be able to hold the line. Frankly, I doubt it.

    • Swamp_Yankee

      Big Loss.

      Wishful thinking amounts to crap.

      Pessimism amounts to crap.

      I dont care if were are ten point up or ten points down, its the fourth quarter and we must fight till the whistle blows.

      • earlgrey

        It looks like we are through.

        • Swamp_Yankee

          There is no basis for the statement we are through. They havent called the vote, so sthat means they dont have the votes.

          Call district offices. Everyone is call ing DC but they check distrcit offices all the time Mike Michaud alone has five offices.

          http://www.asmainegoes.com/content/call-pingreemichaud-tell-them-vote-no-pending-health-care-plan

        • caseoftheblues

          we are not through!!!! The Dems that vote YES are the only ones that are through…Nov 2004 is gonna look like the the good ‘ol days to them

        • eburke
    • caseoftheblues

      Just spoke with his DC office and staffer said he was a NO

    • writeblock

      …so it’s no loss. He’s not part of the 36 named by The Hill as likely no’s.

    • Praying

      And was given a very strong reassuring “He is voting NO, there has been no change.
      3:23 pm EDT

      • http://barnettlaw.org Frozen_Man

        They told me the same thing a few minutes ago.

    • mavericktime

      According to Firedoglake.

      • eburke
  • davidsongirl

    We find it hard to believe, but, his staff says he’s actually reading the Senate bill and is not sure whether he is going to support it. If it’s true, it’s great, and I wish the rest of Congress would read the bill so they’d know what they’re doing, but I wonder if his staff is just saying he’s undecided in order to stop the barrage of calls and complaints. His record is consistently liberal, so if he is truly considering voting no, it would be a shock.

    • rsexteriors

      and just wants to get his own special deal so he is faking wavering to get some attention

      • davidsongirl

        as sick as that makes me feel. He hasn’t had his moment in the spotlight yet.

        • JSobieski

          Head fakes all–Kucinich was the one potential lefty N

          • LibertarianHawk

            I heard where he’s leaning towards a “No” vote. I’ll believe that one when I see it.

            Of course, he’s also the one who was told by the White House “Don’t think we’re not keeping score here, pal.”

            So maybe those words are still ringing in his head as the White House comes scrounging for every vote they can get.

            But I bet he ends up in the “Y” column at the end of the day.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            He has a bone to pick. If the Dems correct it, he will vote yes.

            But the issue is one that will put conservative Blue Dogs and notice, and it will eat up the clock.

            If they have to spend a half day figuring out Medicar reimbursements, its less likely they will meet the Sunday deadline, which would be a huge blow.

          • hickorystick

            who is a no vote. Reimbursal rates to his state. Oregon has State run healthcare as well. Too few of these Reps in Federal City are thinking of how this bill affects there own state, and hospitals.

            1:00 PM ET: Defazio may have company. Caucus Chair John Larson (D-Conn.) tells HuffPost that Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) and Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wisc.) and others — along with Defazio — objected to the stripping out of language related to Medicare disparities in the health care bill.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            First the Seattle times, then another esteemed NW Dem making a stand. That would be huge.

            Lynch has plethora of issues. If they fix this, he still wont budge.

          • hickorystick

            are not very compatible. Baird lives down in the southern part of the state, and is going home to live with his neighbors. Baird can be a very independant guy. He stood up for the surge in Iraq.. He also stood in front of a crowd of 10,000 in a townhall style gathering when he knew he was going to get blasted.
            Seattle has some fantastic hospitals, that the entire region depends on when medical situations get desperate. They cannot continue to operate at high levels when medicade is expanded, and the re-imbursal rate is set at medicare rates. If he votes for this, his retirement could become Hell.
            Both Congressmen live in areas of strong rural influence, where your more likely to be recognized, and people will come up to you to speak their mind. If they start thinking about how this will affect their state, this bill is cooked.

    • Swamp_Yankee

      He Will fold, but Rush. Watt, DeFazio create headaches and make a Sunday deadline tougher to meet which will deflate any momentum they have.

  • jonreagan

    I’m dating myself, but when I was a kid, there was actually a TV program called “Queen for a Day”. Four contestants would get onstage, and each would tell their own tale of woe and misery. At the end of the program, the studio audience would offer applause for the contestant they judged to be the most pitiful; an “applause-meter” would then guage who got the most sympathy, and that contestant would win a grand prize. (Usually a washing machine or household appliance of some kind)

    The Democrats’ approach of “policy by anecdote” to this debacle really resembles that old TV program. Even yesterday, Queen Pelois trotted out four individuals, each to tell their own sob story, which in turn is supposed to be the ratioanale for a government takeover of health care. It’s a sad commentary on the intellectual slum that is today’s Democrat party.

  • caseoftheblues

    and have only gotten thru to 1 office (waste of skin Jim Himes CT 4th Dist. who no one is botherng with since he has had his lips permanently glued to Pelosi’s backside since he took over the seat from Shay (R-sorta) last year. Some phones go straight to voicemail, lots of busy signals and some dead air if they are so overwhelmed they can’t even generate a busy signal. A little better luck with emails but some of those getting server busy messages. I am not giving up…why should I …that’s what they want us to do…why willing do what they want when if they put in place all their plans they will control every aspect of my life. I was fighting for Scott Brown 2 months before they even knew his name and kept on the whole time they were saying he had no chance to win. There is too much at stake…it is NOT inevitable…I hate how conservativea are always willing to go to that fall-back position and the Liberals/Oppressives NEVER are….perhaps that is why we get into these positions.

  • teresakoch

    I think it is quite telling that the House is now asking the Senate for a signed statement that they will agree to take up reconciliation after the House votes. That, and Obama inviting Cao to the WH yesterday tells me that they aren’t close enough for comfort.

    It’s interesting that the vote has been pushed back to 2:00 from noon on Sunday. Now they’re saying that the actual vote might not take place until early Monday morning.

    Again, thank you SO MUCH for all of your hard work on this – it has been greatly appreciated by more people than you could possibly know…

  • caseoftheblues

    and they said he is a NO

    • writeblock

      …he was never on the no list.

      • eburke

        and put him on the “undecided’ list so if he is a no, that puts us back up to 37 no’s with 38 being the magic number per the Hill.

  • travelguy

    A “signed statement” from the Senate is meaningless and not worth the paper it’s printed on. It’s non-binding and all the Senate will do later (after their bill is law) is say “too bad, so sad.” with appropriate crocodile tears.

    • eburke

      they want to take up the “Reconciliation” but there are enough procedural hurdles to overcome that it’ll take forever. (forget for the moment that they have no intention of doing so; the Senate bill will go to Bambi’s desk and all the Dems who bought the Pelosi lie that it’ll all get fixed in the Senate will receive is a jar of vaseline…postage due)

  • Menlo

    I was thinking it was a done deal after that vote yesterday for the “deem-and-pass” rule, but I saw some of those Democrats were confirmed no votes. I really do think too many are in the “undecided” column to make a judgment, and it now appears about as many seem to be going in one direction as in the other.

    I’ll admit the talk of the various “backup plans” with state legislatures and courts and especially future elections is discouraging, so I think it best to not focus on those things right now.

    • proudgop

      if they don’t have votes to pass this I don’t see even voting on it.

      • LibertarianHawk

        …I have to imagine things would fall apart for them very quickly.

        They cannot afford to be spending more time on a healthcare impasse. It’s like Charlie Cook said the other day: the only thing the Dems can do for their chances in November right now is get beyond healthcare — yea or nay — and start at least appearing to care that unemployment’s at 10%.

      • mavericktime

        They will exert extreme pressure, but they want the vote over – whether it passes or not.

        • LibertarianHawk

          If the whip count tomorrow shows the bill not passing, you think they’ll go ahead and have the vote anyway?

          I wouldn’t be shocked if the vote is delayed again. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s held and the bill narrowly passes.

          But to go ahead and have it knowing it would be defeated? Now, that would shock me.

          • JSobieski

            If they decide its time to pack it in, they will have the vote to satisfy MoveOn.org, DailyKos, et al.

            If they think that they may want to revisit the issue, they will simply let it simmer for a while.

            Politically speaking, option #2 is great for us—so long as it doesn’t actually pass. The longer the dems keep this issue out there, the more they lose in November.

          • proudgop

            If they have a vote they sadly have votes

            if they don’t vote they don’t have votes and won’t put their vulnerable members at more harm by being on record

  • willbone87

    …will include many of the final goodies to get their votes.
    Why are Republicans not making more of this fact?
    When will the American people learn of the backroom deals that this amendment will formalize?
    Hoyer says early votes on Monday are possible. Does that mean the vote may slip until then?

    • eburke

      THEY STILL DON’T HAVE THE VOTES!!!!!!!!!!

    • conservativemusician

      He’s been warning all the Dem House members who are cutting special deals with Obama that they will be exposed and that the positions they have been promised if they lose in November will be held up in committee.

      I’ve been critical of the GOP leadership like many of us have, but they are standing up for us and showing real leadership as we get down to the wire. They’ve had enough of this crap just like all of us around the country have had enough. The American people ARE engaged and are melting the phone lines and will be marching in protest in DC on Sunday.

      Remember that even if this thing passes, it is long from being over with all the lawsuits and consitutional challenges that will follow, as well as prodedural things the Senate GOP will also do to hold the bill up.

      I’m with Dan here and I’m not going to let what I hear from the media dampen my spirits or make me complacent.

      • sta46

        watching Greta. She had the new AG from VA on. they passed a bi-partisan bill in their state legislature last week protecting citizens in the Commonwealth.
        BUT, here’s the good news:
        He has already prepared a law suit which he stated has implications beyond just the citizens of VA.
        He said the supremacy clause can only be invoked if the fed bill meets the constitutional requirements and in his opinion Obamacare does not
        If this passes, he will be in what they refered to as an Eastern Va “rocket docket” the day obamao signs it.
        He wrote pelosi and put her on notice, not that she cares, but to avoid having her scream from botox central that she was blind-sided

  • RealQuiet

    First Bobby Rush, then Peter DiFazio. Earl Pomeroy with a sweetheart deal, Bart Gordon, a few others I can’t think of but I know Malkin highlighted them earlier.

    There is a very noticeable pattern here. Every UNDECIDED Dem might be holding out for a handout from Pelosi. She is going to have to BUY all of them. All these congressmen are seeing these sweet deals and they want a piece of the pie too. And the GOP Senate is taking notes of all this and is going to use it to nuke any House member who got bought as Coburn alluded to yesterday. This looks like she is in a corner.

    • tritonspolartiger

      …is what they’re trying to do.

      If they aren’t voting – if they aren’t rushing everyone into chamber as we speak, then they don’t have the votes.

      The moment Pelosi has the magic number, there’s gonna be a vote. If she had the votes, they’d be voting tonight/tomorrow morning/tomorrow afternoon, etc.

      There’s a reason no vote is scheduled for today or tomorrow: The Dems do not have the votes.

      The MSM, etc, would have us believe it’s inevitable. It’s like trying to generate a hurricane by screaming “WIND!”

      And they are not succeeding.

      Dan’s right – take a few hours away from the media. I’d counsel us to keep calling, faxing, etc, just ignore the media. They all want this, hence they’re spinning every tidbit as a Pelosi Positive. In truth, we’re still well in the realm of Nancy Negatives… Don’t expose yourself to the MSM spin.

      We must keep our wits.

      Triton

  • RealQuiet

    n/t

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Paul Ryan @ NRO

    ?It?s a coin toss,? says Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) to National Review Online. ?We were just on the floor going through whip-check. They still aren?t there yet. It?s narrowed down, from what we can tell, to four or five. Obviously, the numbers favor them, if you compare the pool of undecided votes to how many they need to come over. They only need about 50 percent of the remaining undecideds to break their way. On our side, we need seven votes to defeat this. At this point, we?re really only talking about a handful of votes. It?s such a close situation, and very, very fluid. They don?t want to win by just one vote ? with everyone cast as the tiebreaking vote ? they want to win by two or three votes. That?ll be hard to do, as will muscling votes in these final hours, since everyone is watching.?

    We are not cooked. But this is no time to kick back.

    • bk
  • hoosierdad

    I’m not in their districts, but I just talked to Joe Donnelly’s office in DC and Brad Ellsworth’s office in Terre Haute. I expressed my opinion, and mentioned Ellsworth’s “Your Share of the National Debt” on his website, and how this healthcare bill will make that skyrocket.

    To their credit, the staffers were polite and said they are keeping a tally of out-of-district opinions, and forward them to the congressmen at the end of the day.

    Any inside scoop on how this works? Are these guys minds made up? Do these comments really sway them, or are they strongarmed by Pelosi??

    I talked to Baron Hill’s office a couple days ago. Any new on him?

    The most depressing thing is that I have to turn to three DEMOCRAT CONGRESSMEN for HELP.

    • LibertarianHawk

      Donnelly’s a “No”, unless something miraculous happens with the abortion language.

      Ellsworth is still undecided — but we’ve been discussing him in another thread. He’s probably best described as a non-issue: a “Yes” if his vote matters, a “No” if it doesn’t.

      For the purposes of staying on top of the count, I’d call him a “Yes.”

      He has to stay in the party’s graces, not yet having the Senate nomination that will be made by a committee.

  • hoosierdad

    I’m not in their districts, but I just talked to Joe Donnelly’s office in DC and Brad Ellsworth’s office in Terre Haute. I expressed my opinion, and mentioned Ellsworth’s “Your Share of the National Debt” on his website, and how this healthcare bill will make that skyrocket.

    To their credit, the staffers were polite and said they are keeping a tally of out-of-district opinions, and forward them to the congressmen at the end of the day.

    Any inside scoop on how this works? Are these guys minds made up? Do these comments really sway them, or are they strongarmed by Pelosi??

    I talked to Baron Hill’s office a couple days ago. Any new on him?

    The most depressing thing is that I have to turn to three DEMOCRAT CONGRESSMEN for HELP.

  • jenniferjmilleresq

    this weekend. I happened to call Arcuri’s office 15 minutes after he announced he was a definite “no” yesterday. HIs staffer was obviously thrilled to give me the news. We’re wearing them down. Keep it up.

  • kewgardens

    Leaning yes, according to National Review Online.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Call him and thank him for showing courage. He’s not a confirmed no, but some positive reinforcement couldnt hurt.

  • davidstone

    is cutting deals with the Stupak block. If she can get the Stupak block on board, kiss this fight goodbye.

    I think it is going to be tough to do though. How can Stupak get assurances that the Senate will pass any separate legislation restricting abortion as much as he wants it?

    http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/endgame-deal-with-stupak-bloc-discussed-that-would-guarantee-passage-of-health-care-bill/

    • Swamp_Yankee
    • JSobieski

      see the link I provided in my comment below. If they had actually tried to placate him earlier, we could be screwed.

      Their arrogance shall be their undoing. I just hope the Stupak 12 are as pissed as he is.

  • earlgrey

    On National Review.

    • RealQuiet

      They have been saying they have the votes for over a year now.

    • JSobieski

      Check this out:

      http://thehill.com/homenews/house/87865-pro-life-dems-working-on-a-vote-deal

      “In a Wednesday interview with The Hill, however, Stupak said he was dubious of promises made by any Democrats.

      ?Right now, they got the trifecta: They got the House, they got the Senate and they got a president,? he said. ?So basically, they said, ?Your right-to-life amendments are over.? And they?ve proven that.

      ?So one of the offers is, ?Why won?t you just drop this for now? We?re going to work on it later. This thing doesn?t kick in till 2018,? Stupak continued. ?Well, jeez, after you tell us no to our face ? ?You?re never going to get anything? ? why would I suddenly think you?re going to give me something now? I?m a little slow, but I?m not that slow.?

      I sense blood in the water! The smell of arrogant power about to be humbled.

      The issue of abortion is the super-virus to left wing Utopian dreams.

      • LibertarianHawk

        If they had “extra” votes, then there’d be no reason at all to reengage the Stupak holdouts.

        But how do we know that it was the leadership who approached him and not the other way around? After all, they didn’t reengage Stupak — Pelosi made a blanket statement that there would be no more changes made to the bill.

        • JSobieski

          plus, the pro-lifers probably hate Pelosi at this point.

          I don’t see any whip activity happening without the instruction of the queen bee.

      • JSobieski

        he is not going to deal

      • RealQuiet

        The only way that could happen is if the process starts over from square 1. Any sidecar bill on abortion will be railroaded in the Senate. Stupak knows this. Plus, the Democrats are going to be out of power in November anyway so Pelosi has nothing to offer here.

        • earlgrey

          This is friday and they are chipping away at his bloc. Why would a dem no say they already have the votes?

          • JSobieski

            Haven’t you picked up on that? Its been their primary strategy for the past 8 months

          • JSobieski

            Any of the above could apply.

            I wouldn’t trust any dem on vote counting since their incentives are different than ours. Many of them would like it pass, just without their votes.

          • eburke
          • eburke

            by pimping my own diary, go read this:

            http://www.redstate.com/eburke/2010/03/18/we-shall-never-surrenderwe-shall-never-yield/

            You have one of two choices:

            1) either continue to obsess over every libtard Dem and lapdog media talking point and depress yourself and take chunks out of the morale of those still fighting; or,

            2) Switch off all contact with the outside world, pick up your phone, get in your car, find a fax machine, sign up to be a precinct committeeman and FIGHT!!

            Your choice.

          • earlgrey

            I feel helpless at work all day. I can’t make calls on my work phone or company cell phone, but that is how I check in at Red Statae.

            I figure I can get by with a few calls to regional offices (that I was unable to get through today). It is kind of a helpless feeling.

            You aren’t the first to tell me to buck up.

        • Swamp_Yankee

          Stupak is the nominal head, he and about four or five are die-hards. The others are mushes. There will be no deal with Stupak. But there may be a weasel deal with Kaptur and Rahall.

          Nothing to do, but just keep fighting.

          • eburke

            and I’m *really* trying to stay out of Pollyanna land but I saw an interview that Stupak had around Tuesday of this week and his body language and voice intonation sounded like the cat who had swallowed the canary.

            His comment was “I’ve got 12 and they’re holding firm. No one knows who’s on my list. I’ve seen some of the lists out there and there are going to be some surprises because some of those lists have people on them that aren’t, and there are people on my list that no one thinks is.” I’m wondering if Lynch was one of ‘em ’cause he wasn’t on *anybody’s* radar screen.

          • houstoneagle
    • earlgrey

      Pereillo is now saying he is a yes if reconciliation is promised by the Senate. How do they promise reconciliation? Is this like blood brothers or something? I guess he is trying to cover himself.

      • RealQuiet

        Then immigration reform won’t happen because the GOP will tie down the Senate until the mid-terms. That would put getting the CHC support for the healthcare bill in jeopardy.

        • LibertarianHawk

          The CHCers seem to have bought Obama’s promise on immigration reform. And he needs their support on HCR now, not next month or this summer.

          I think they’re going to be left at the altar, one way or another. But that’s politics….and why they ought to just vote their consciences on what actually is or is not in the bill, rather than what may or may not come later.

      • teresakoch

        and I hope that these House Dems who are selling their votes for something that is in that reconciliation package and Manager’s Amendment package realize that. If they vote to “pass” this thing with no assurances from the Senate, then this is a done deal, the Senate bill “passes” as is, and everyone goes home.

        The House Dems will be left holding the bag on a bunch of worthless deals, and a WHOLE LOT of very angry constituents. If that happens, things are going to get very, very ugly, starting in D.C., continuing on to their states, and ending in each Representatives’ home district. The House and the Senate will tear each other to shreds, and BamBam won’t be able to show his face ANYWHERE NEAR anyone in either branch of the legislature for the next 3 years after a betrayal of this magnitude.

        I sure hope they have thought all of this out (my guess is they haven’t), and I sure hope that their votes are worth it in the end….

  • LibertarianHawk

    That’s a relief after his vote yesterday.

    Link here…

    http://kdka.com/politics/Jason.Altmire.healthcare.2.1575875.html

    H/t The Corner

    • Swamp_Yankee

      I still dont understand those concerned about yesterday’s vote though. A skeptical Democrat isnt going to vote for a GOP measure that puts all Dems on the spot just because they dot like the bill. It was complicated procedural bill.

      • RealQuiet

        Good grief, combine this Altmire being a no and now Kilroy is a yes. Something is breaking here.

        • JSobieski

          to the public. Friday afternoon is probably the best time to announce a Y decision, so the tally by tonight should be telling

  • earlgrey

    Nt

  • kewgardens

    Boyd, Cuellar, Kaptur, Courtney, Wilson (OH) ALL voting Yes.

    Although Boyd appears to be the only no to yes switch among the group.

    Still, this is not helpful.

    • RealQuiet

      Wow, he just killed his re-elect chances.

      • Swamp_Yankee

        if it looks like it is going down, he want want to curse his chances, so I think hell stay on the sideline for now. He is Pro-Life and he has employers in his district fighting this hard.

  • RealQuiet

    Just curious.

  • JadedByPolitics

    ………

    • eburke

      ::rolling eyes::

    • redneck_hippie

      I’ve been hearing Altmire is a “key” whatever. If he really is key, I hope he influences more to his way of thinking. When I heard him on Sean’s radio show I felt like he was merely another caveman.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Its not enough to be negative and just threaten people. These two are getting leaned on BIG TIME and are still holding out.

    They are huge and they are getting ravaged by netroots, unions and the left.

    You need positive reinforcement to complement negative reinforcement. Tell them thank you and that you respect their courage. Who cares if they are Dems for now.

    We are so close. These two could seal it.

    • Swamp_Yankee

      Scott Murphy already caved under the pressure. Space is still big.

      • earlgrey

        Murhpy?

  • RealQuiet

    http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/breaking-ellsworth-to-vote-yes/

    • Swamp_Yankee

      Ellsworth and Hill.

      What happened to Indiana?

      Ellsworth was more important than Hill.

      • earlgrey

        He is running for Senator remember. He had to do what the party told him, but this will ensure defeat? Doesn’t that prove they needed his vote or I am being too optimistic?

        • RealQuiet

          The GOP are going to pick up an awful lot of seats in some states.

      • IJB

        I imagine this will even take Donnelly down as collateral damage.

        But the entire IN Dem delegation has shown they cannot be trusted – the voters of IN need to see that.

        Hopefully, it’ll put the GOP back in control of the IN State House as well…

        • Swamp_Yankee
          • http://moelane.com/ Moe Lane

            …then it makes sense to dump as many Democrats into the midden as you possibly can.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            To early to quit. Beating this is more important than a couple of extra House seats. American first. Republican second.

          • earlgrey

            Are you saying we want as many dems on record for passing this as possible to sweep their seats.

          • IJB

            (But certain ‘Yes’ votes mean worse news for Dems than others – and Ellsworth’s vote will likely pull the entire IN Dem party down with him…)

          • earlgrey

            Wouldn’t you rather risk Altmiire’s dstrict than a Senate seat? Ellsworth is guarenteed to lose the Senate race now.

  • renny

    If you can still stand to make calls:

    PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State Disctrict
    Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 05
    Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 11
    Jerry McNerney (202) 225-4060 925-833-0643 CA 11
    John Salazar (202)-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3
    Jim Hines (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4
    Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8
    Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1145 IL 14
    Baron Hill (202) 225 5315 (812) 288 3999 IN 09
    Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 07
    Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 09
    Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 (702)-256-DINA (3462) NV 3
    Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1
    Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1
    John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19
    Bill Owens (202) 225- 4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23
    Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25
    Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND AT Large
    Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1
    Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15
    Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18
    Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 03
    Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8
    Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 OH 18
    Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11
    John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 05
    Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 05
    Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WV 11
    Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WV 03
    Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 08
    Jim Matheson (202) 225-3011 (801) 486-1236 UT 02
    Alan Boyd (202) 225-5235 (850) 561-3979 FL 2

    Tell your Congressman you OPPOSE the Obamacare Plan and that they must vote AGAINST it!

    • proudgop

      Titus, Salazar, Boyd, Kilroy, Kirkpatrick, Schauer are all Yes votes now

  • mavericktime

    Is he ready to back down from his confident prediction of failure?

    • earlgrey

      Also, there is a press conference tomorrow with Bart Stupak’s group Perhaps they have a compromise.

      • mavericktime

        This talk about the side resolution indicates that Pelosi may not have the votes without the Stupak people, but it sounds like some of them are wavering.

        • Swamp_Yankee

          Need To Confirm

          Carney
          Rahall
          Dahlkemper
          Berry
          Kaptur

          Need To Keep

          Joseph Cao.
          Stephen Lynch
          Mike Arcuri
          Bart Stupak
          Dan Lipinski
          Jerry Costello
          Joe Donnelly
          Steve Driehaus

  • Swamp_Yankee

    On the heals of Ellsworth and Boyd. Now Kosmos

    Blue Dogs all punked out.

    It the Pro-Life Dems and strangely, Dems, from Blue states holding this together. We had strange luck in the NE, maybe a few suprises in the NW?

    Call and thank Arcuri, Adler, Altmire.

    Thank DeFazio

    Call the Stupak Cahtolics.

    Call Zack Space.

    Call Melissa Bean.

    Call Scott Murphy

    Call Carney
    …

    There’s only a handfull left. Need to keep our guys and grab a couple more.

    • RealQuiet

      Their only hope was that they could have voted no and the bill failed. GOP picks up 80-120 seats in Novembe in the Houser.

      • Swamp_Yankee

        Just care about doing what right by my country and I will support any Dem who joins me in this cause. I’m tired of people leveraging this travesty for votes.

        • IJB

          The best we could hope for is that there are enough sane Dems around to kill this.

          But, if there aren’t, we need backup plans, and one of them has to be to wipe out the Dem party nationally in Nov. 2010.

          Leveraging this, if the bill passes, into an 80-120 House gain for the GOP would go a long way towards, 1) facilitating kneecapping and repealing this monstrosity, and 2) destroying the Dem party for generations (and hopefully, forever).

          We can’t beat ourselves up, though, if a bunch of Dems show their true totalitarian colors on this. We simply have to take them out…

          • Swamp_Yankee

            the nwinning 80 t o120 seatsl. It will take at least four to six years to get the numbers to repeal this if it isnt rooted already. Its nice talk because it helps GOP in 2010 and leaders in GOP want to empower themselves. They are frothing at the mouth at using this an election tool. But nothing changes in 2010. Nothing. Obama is stil POTUS. Dems will keep the Senate. We cant even be assured that Obama will lose in 2012.

            This is easily our best shot at stopping this monstrosity, right now.Not repeal, litigation, cock-a-mamie schemes of civil disobedience.

          • IJB
          • Swamp_Yankee

            I’ve been in the trenches. Not to many people can even explain how it really works. Its just sort of another blind dart.

            The insurance companies will throw a fit because they will not be able to afford to cover pre-existing conditions without their subsidies and the insurance mandates that will also be covered with subsidies.

            But the GOP better get super majorities real quick because what happens if defunding results in hundreds of thousands of people being unemployed, and tens of millions insurance policies being cancelled.

            All these plan B options are gordian knots that will take years of resolve.

            Holding the Stupak Dems and a handful of moderats is much much much more easy and should have been the sole focus all along.

          • houstoneagle

            Although the 80-120 seat turnover is a conservative estimate of our gains this November if this goes down. I’m not kidding.

    • mavericktime

      According to Jay Cost’s original list, which has not proven infallible by any means. But here is his list of former “no’s” who could be persuaded to vote “yes.”

      1. John Adler (NJ-3)
      2. Brian Baird (WA-3)
      3. John Boccieri (OH-16)
      4. Bart Gordon (TN-6)
      5. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
      6. Scott Murphy (NY-20)

    • hickorystick

      A local radio host is doing a ’300′ defense of liberty against Adam Smith. Baird still holding out. Smith has a legitimate challenger in Dick Muri, and Boze is raising money for him. It’s not the money thats shaking Smith, it’s the number of contributors in 12 hours. Check my quick diary:

      http://www.redstate.com/hickorystick/2010/03/19/adam-smith-wa-09-getting-scared/

      What also really needs to happen is crack open the 100 pages of Pelosi’s additions and find the Devil.

      • Swamp_Yankee

        I would doubt it. But the Northeast held and the Blue dogs folded. Something funny is going on. Its almost like a re-alignment. That would be huge if we could get at a couple from the NW.

    • MrMosis

      I can’t help but think there must be some untold levels of Chicago-style Enforcement going on behind the Blue Dog scenes. I wonder when they will break ranks and start telling. Probably too scared.

  • Mary Beth

    “Appears Pelosi is going to use the “deemed” passed procedure..this means the vote on the rule will automatically “deem” the senate bill passed(without a debate or vote on its merit),& then the house will vote on changes the House Dems want the Senate Dems to accept.Senate Dems will not likely accept, so…..the Senate passed health bill will likely be the law, even tho it was never voted on in the House. Thats wrong”

    Per his Facebook page:

    http://www.facebook.com/#!/profile.php?id=1340283369&ref=ts

    • Mary Beth

      “just finished voting on floor for today..house goes in session tomorrow at 9…rules committee will meet to consider amendments(no republicans will be accepted), and decide if Speaker Pelosi is going to use the self-executing “deemed passsed” manuever…i am planning on testifying against that idea”

      • JadedByPolitics

        because the LAWSUITS are at the ready….I will bank my future on Mark Levin and his Constitutional knowledge any day! I look forward to my AG Cucinelli as well….LET ROLL!

  • Swamp_Yankee

    Best chart I’ve seen in a while.

    209 solid NOs

    212 with Cao, Nye and Berry

    (213 w/ DeFazio who is not on their list)

    Need five of the following:

    More Likely in my opinion:

    Baird
    Matheson
    Teague
    Space
    Dahlkemper
    Bean
    Rahall
    Pomeroy
    Kaptur
    Carney

    Less Likely:

    Tanner
    Foster
    Kanjorski
    Michaud
    Mitchell
    Ortiz
    Mollohan
    Owens

    And there are some unknown wildcards out there like Capuano and Smith.

    Doesnt include Rush or Watt.

    Periello and Cuellar are considered firm “yeahs” but might weasel out if they cant get confirmation from the Senate.

    I think that about right, may be one or two off.

    • Swamp_Yankee

      http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/kosmas-cuellar-to-vote-yes-200-209-207-212-with-leaners/

      Right now DeFazio looks huge. Its not that he is firm, but his issue may not be addressed in time for a vote on Sunday. Lets hope the GOP can keep them in knots.

      There momentum will deflate if they cant get to a vote on Sunday.

      • AndrewHyman

        The Hill has Defazio as undecided instead of “no”. Very peculiar.

        http://thehill.com/homenews/house/85693-whip-watch-the-hills-survey-of-house-dems-positions-on-healthcare-

        • proudgop

          Not to be so negative but they have gained 7 votes compared to last health bill and we lost that by 4 votes

          we have only gained 3 ( Cao, Donnelly, Accuri ( he might flip again being threatened with primary challenge already) and Stupak)

          I am not seeing how you guys say she doesn’t have numbers. I wish I did and will keep on calling but I don’t see math

          • earlgrey

            nt

            I just don’t understand why they are doing this? I thought they would care about re-election.

          • EDC

            Earlgrey, I’ll help you to understand, friend. The Democrats are doing this because they want more political power, in the long run, by placing the federal government in control of more aspects of our lives. Democrats are the party of government. The Democratic Party leadership today is willing to lose elections this November because they believe that getting this bill passed will give them what they want.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Lynch, Driehaus, Lipinski, Costello Berry looks like a no, .. a few others yes to nos.

            It could go eitehr way. Its been that way all week. There are about four of five pro-lifers could save it for us. That is our best hope now, and that the Medicare reimbursement are taken care of by Sunday.

          • http://hillbillypolitics.com Steph C

            I respect Dan’s analysis as well as others but we’ve seen the Dems play this game quite a few times in the past 14 months. They vacillate, declare they’re against it, and then when the votes are counted, we get creamed.

            The anti-incumbent sentiment in this country is seething. I don’t know if the Dems are listening any better this time than any other but are simply telling people what they want to hear until it’s too late to do anything about it.

            I’ve refrained from posting anything like this because there is already so much pessimism but I gotta say I’m terrified that we’re going to watch it become a done deal Sunday.

          • proudgop

            I will be shocked if Lynch, Lipinski, Costello, DeFazio, Kaptur, Baird don’t vote yes

            All these people in very Democrat districts aren’t going to vote against this I am afraid

            No one announced today they are voting no who a yes I wish heard that but they had whole bunch come out for them

          • Swamp_Yankee

            The Stupak Dems are for real.

            Lynch will vote no. Lipinski and Driehaus have been nos for while. It does make a difference that they switched early. That actually a sign of their conviction.

            I didnt say anything about DeFAzio, Kaptur or Baird.

          • Menlo

            Obviously, any of them could switch; but Lynch, Lipinki, and Costello are thought to be against it. I would be surprised at the other two.

        • AndrewHyman

          The Hill now has Defazio as ?no? instead of undecided (thanks to someone who shall remain nameless but who often shows up here at Redstate).

  • treeofliberty

    God bless that man!! Gives me encouragement for the fight coming this weekend

  • clintonformccain

    My guess. Stupak want to vote “yes”. Just needs some kind of bogus window dressing resolution or something so he can say, “look what I got by standing on principle”.

    Then, he’ll cave and Obama will claim an overwhelming mandate (in a deem and pass maneuver).

    I think we all knew, the minute Scott Brown won his Senate seat, that the Dems would just force the House to pass the Senate bill unchanged.

  • hickorystick

    medicare re-imbursal rates to be fixed. He’s not going to change on that. If they fix the rates, it will push the bill over 1 trillion dollars, which would knock other likely yes’es to no.
    His state is being ‘punished’ for keeping healthcare costs low, by paying the lowest rate for for services. The Louisiana Purchase is pee-ing him off. He won’t change to a yes.

    http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2010/03/defazio_threatens_no_vote_on_h.html

    • hickorystick

      and one look at his picture will tell you he likes to be stubborn. I’ve met plenty like him, and the more you hammer on them, the more they curl up like a potato bug and don’t listen. Obama’s powers won’t work on him.

    • Swamp_Yankee

      That’s great news about DeFazio.

      Drudge is also running front page with the CBO and Doc Fix and the real trillion dollar cost of the bill.

      It looks like activists have another Saturday morning talking point.

      Call Defazio. Tell him thanks.

      • hickorystick

        I voted for the original bill for three principal reasons: it had a public option which would get people out from under the thumb of the insurance industry; it had national exchanges which would give people lower rates and better coverage; and, after decades of trying, we finally fixed the Medicare geographic disparities formula which discriminates against Oregon and 16 other states. The most current version of the health care bill includes none of these provisions and unless we fix the geographic disparities, I cannot vote for this bill. We negotiated this change for months and we finally got an agreement included in the House bill and expected it to be in the final bill, but it has been removed.

        The formula has been unfair for 40 years and has only gotten worse in subsequent budget reconciliation bills. It is outdated and currently discriminates against Oregon and 16 other states that provide low cost, high quality care. Studies by MedPAC, the Institute of Medicine and the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy have all found the current formula inequitable and recommended that it be fixed but, it has not happened. The language in the House bill would have mandated the formula change. It does not cost three times as much to do an appendectomy in Florida as it does in Oregon but currently Medicare spends three times as much annually per an enrollee in Miami as in Eugene. The most calls I get the in my district offices are from seniors who cannot get a doctor because reimbursement rates are so low. This change would improve access to care for millions of seniors across the country. Fixing the Medicare geographic disparities formula is only right and only fair. It is long past time for this to change.

        http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTA0NmUxOWQ5NGMyNmU5YThiMDQyZDA3MjZlMjJjNDU=

        These are practical concerns. Reasonable people can agree with what he said, regardless of where you live or Party.

  • davidstone

    have a press conference scheduled tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.

    A bad sign? He said he would not accept a promise of future action. Furthermore, how could pro-choice house Dems support a third pro-life bill? How could Stupak get a guarantee the Senate will move on a bill? He cannot use the nuns for cover because he already publically dismissed that and said he sides with the bishops. So I am sceptical. Of course, he could be caving and knows the senate will not support anything he tries to do and is just looking for a cover.

    Who knows.

    • davidstone

      A deal seems too far fetched based on what I wrote above. This could be a finger pointing exercise where they each blames the other and says they did the best they could. It is hard to believe the Dems would let the vote get this close and not find a way to 216.

      • davidstone

        Stupak and Pelosi may have a deal.

        http://twitter.com/JeffreyYoung_HC/status/10746021872

      • JSobieski

        I trust Stupak not to fall for a vapor deal. However, if they can peel off 4-5 votes, thats probably what they need.

        We are lucky that enough bad blood has developed between the parties to delay this move. A couple of weeks ago I would really have been scared.

        • sarg01

          Half of them already caved. They need all of them to Rahm it through.

          • JSobieski

            This is it though.

            If enough pro-life Dems stay strong, HCR won’t pass. If too many cave. HCR passes.

            The fiscal Blue Dog types, despite their far greater numbers, have caved like cheap whores. Pro-Lifers from Blue states have shown far more spine.

          • sarg01

            What he claims and what he can produce are separate things. On most of the whip counts out there, we’re down to only 15 or so that aren’t firmly in one camp or the other, and a fair number of those have always been pro-abortion. It’s hard to imagine that all the others are following Stupak’s lead.

          • JSobieski

            but in terms of predicting behavior, Stupak has been consistent in his prediction that Pelosi did not have the votes without his 12, and once again, they are in discussions with him despite telling him to #%@^$ off not too long ago.

            If anyone understands the dynamics in the minds of the Stupak 12, it is Stupak.

            I wouldn’t be surprised if some members find extreme ways to avoid being present for the vote. Self-induced car accident? Fall down the stairs.

        • davidstone

          “We are lucky that enough bad blood has developed between the parties to delay this move. A couple of weeks ago I would really have been scared.”

          • JSobieski

            Pretty scathing indictment of how the democrat party treats pro-life democrats.

            I have to think that Stupak is less likely to go for some kind side-deal on abortion than he was previously—he no longer trusts the house leadership

      • tngal

        some stupak supporters have been trying to work on the wording to gt something they like so they can vote yes. But then Stupak would come back later and say no its not happening. But given the rumors at the usual places, hill & others, had to figure it was a matter of time. Well there’s still the rally tomorrow. and more calls.

    • eburke

      squat ’cause the whole ‘reconciliation’ bill is a subterfuge and a joke. It’ll never get throught the Senate and that’s probably what SanFranNan is telling the pro-choice crowd – don’t worry about it, gals, the Senate will never even consider it so don’t get your panties in a wad.

      The only concern is are the Stupak Dems stupid enough or do they think there’s enuf ‘cover’ in a ‘deal’ to cave ’cause reconciliation ain’t goin’ nowhere but into the trash can.

  • sarg01

    Of all the Dems, he’s the only one who’s shown some spine. I have to imagine Nancy doesn’t go there unless it’s her absolute last choice, and there’s still no guarantee Stupak listens. That she’s even talking to him again is a sign of how poor off they are.

    Even if he does cave, you have to consider the possibility of a revolution from the pro-abortion folks, and there’s a lot more abortionist Dems than Stupak Dems, even 5% of them could probably sink this pig.

    • JSobieski

      I just hope enough of the Stupak gang stay strong.

      • sarg01

        I meant Pelosi gives him what he wants.

        • JSobieski

          The fact that Pelosi is talking to him is a great sign for us. I just hope she can’t peel off more votes.

          I have always thought that HCR rests on the shoulders of the Stupak crowd. I think this press conference at 10am is going to push this process one way or the other in a conclusive way

          • redneck_hippie

            http://gretawire.blogs.foxnews.com/pick-up-12-lose-40-this-cant-be-right/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feedutm_campaign=Feed:+blogs/Gretawire+%28Blogs+-+Gretawire%29

          • Beasley Beesmeal

            after all he has promised, if he backs down, he’ll go down as the Biggest Back-stabbing house dem EVER

            if he backs down, I hope his constituents are *really* happy

  • tngal

    the one with the bracelets or the pointy feet. Hard to tell. Maybe its my computer.

  • vivafreedom

    Sir, the fight continues. As of 9:00 a.m. this morning, we captured, and have held since, the opposition’s supply of Perrier and Grey Poupon. However, we are now surrounded. Please send word soon of the battle beyond this squirmish. We will do our best to hold our position.

    By the way, we are now consuming the Perrier and Grey Poupon. Por que? Because we can. :)

    Viva Freedom.

  • davidstone

    reached.

    http://twitter.com/mollyhooper

    I have no idea how reliable this is, but Stupak does have a press conference tomorrow.

    • davidstone

      CNN is reporting that there is no deal.

      Anti-abortion Democrat Bart Stupak of Michigan is asking for a vote on his language restricting taxpayer funding for abortion, and a group of female abortion rights Democrats came out of an emergency meeting in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi?s office Friday evening visibly angry about the prospect.

      Rep. Diana Degette, D-Colorado, told reporters a vote on Stupak?s measure was a ?non starter? and said ?somewhere between 40 and 55? abortion rights Democrats would bolt from the bill.

      ?We are holding firm this time,? she insisted. ?If Mr. Stupak and a few members along with the Republicans decide to use this to take health care down, that loss of health care will be in their hands.?

      It?s not yet clear how seriously Democratic leaders are considering allowing a vote on Stupak?s abortion language, or in what form.

      But Stupak told CNN he is in discussions with Pelosi.

      ?We had a good discussion with the speaker on the floor,? said Stupak. ?But there was no agreement and there?s no agreement until we see it in writing and we get a chance to massage it.?

      If this is true, Pelosi is in serious trouble.

      http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/03/19/abortion-standoff-as-health-care-vote-nears/?fbid=PD9Kgyy0rjh

      • swami7774

        …if there IS a Stupak deal or if there is NOT a Stupak deal?
        My head is spinning from all this subterranean crap.

        • sarg01

          The only viable way for Pelosi to win is to convince Stupak to vote yes in exchange for something in the future that she can pull the rug out from under down the road.

          Stupak doesn’t seem to be the sort of guy to fall for that, though.

          If she can’t get Stupak+friends, she’s 3-5 votes short. If she puts the Stupak Amendment in the bill, it’ll get struck in reconciliation in the Senate (meaning there will be ANOTHER House vote) and it probably loses her 15-20 votes from abortion Dems, putting her 8-10 votes down.

          • swami7774

            ..the monstrosity dies. But he’s a Dem, and we know they rarely hold true. They all have their hand out in some manner.

    • tngal

      Per the hill.

      House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Friday evening met with a visibly angry Pro-Choice Caucus amid rumors from Democratic aides that the Speaker was working on a last-minute deal with Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) to give his abortion language a separate vote.

      (clip)

      “…a senior Democratic aide directly involved in the abortion debate said Pelosi appeared to have agreed to give Stupak a vote on an ?enrollment resolution? offered by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), a key Stupak ally.”

      Here’s the thingy.

      http://thehill.com/homenews/house/87989-pro-choice-caucus-angry-at-talk-of-pelosi-stupak-deal

      • JSobieski

        All of the lefties who already think that the bill is a sell out . .. hit your breaking points . . . start a free for all brawl.

        Divide and conquer. So long as the pro-lifers don’t fold, this is all good stuff.

        • JSobieski

          Tomorrow is going to be very interesting.

          To all of cynics out there, Pelosi would not be going this route if she had the votes.

          • davidstone

            Pelosi is in trouble. If she is working with Stupak and risking pissing off the VERY strong pro-choice contingent in the Dem party, then she does not have the votes without Stupak and his posse. Furthermore, this additional negotiation could cause the vote to have to be delayed even if they did come to an agreement (which they will not).

            Lastly, Rep. DeFazio is dead serious about voting no, bragging about voting no on the stimulus and cap and trade when his demands weren?t met. And since I don?t think that Pelosi has a good way to ?fix? Medicare reimbursement at this stage of the game without sending the report back to the CBO and keeping a recon bill alive, I think he is a no.

            http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/19/defazio-east-coast-senato_n_506460.html

            They are right now at 217 NO votes with additional no posibilities.

          • tngal

            Pro -Choicers? I dunno…something is wrong here. I’m trying to put my finger on it… It probably involves the phrase ” the enemy of my enemy is my..” Well. It still smells.

          • JSobieski

            News flash: a unified Democrat party passes the bill.

            We need an internal fight, an internal fight on an issue that can’t be compromised (unlike a tax or spending issue that can result in a halfway compromise).

            Abortion is not an issue that can be solved by a split the baby solution.

            We need the House democrats not to give in to Stupak this time. We want the leftist nutjubs to speak up, and prevent Pelosi from making any kind of deal.

            Get everyone all angry, mad, and feeling like they have given in enough.

            Pelosi is trying to do a very delicate balancing act. We want her to fail.

          • JSobieski

            not just outcomes.

            This is analogous to Operation Chaos. If you are a Rush fan, and trust his judgement, trust me now on this point—we want an abortion fight in the Democrat party!

      • sarg01

        …i f the libs take down the “not a government takeover” Obamacare bill because they can’t allow abortion to be restricted. The argument is that’d basically eliminate abortion — because it’s a government takeover of healthcare!

        • cari

          and I wanted to make sure my coalition stayed together, where would I hide them to protect them from enormous pressure?

          In the undecided column? No. They’re getting inundated.

          In the No column? No. Even Cao is getting approached.

          In the Yes column? Why yes! That would be a great place to hide a few, if not all of my members to keep them safe from the arm-twisting, lie-telling leadership.

          There would be no need to reveal their position until the vote is actually taken, and then, after it’s too late to do anything about it….
          surprise! I’m a NO!

          Hmmmm…. I was wondering why he was saying on camera this week that he’s seen the leadership’s list of his “group” and that they’re “not even close”. Hmmmmm…..

          • JSobieski

            nt

          • sarg01

            … is that these are Dems. They don’t see Pelosi as the enemy like we do. In order to actually play things out like you describe, they’d have to LIE to their own Whip and then backstab in the vote.

            They would never be forgiven by the Dem leadership. Ever. Hell, they’d probably get thrown out of the Caucus.

          • JSobieski

            Given the fact that Stupak’s wife has unplugged all the phones in their house, I’ll bet he and his dozen are content to engage in some subterfuge.

            If Nancy has be reduced to going back to Stupak, she is in serious trouble with regards to the numbers.

          • cari

            these Dems have any love or respect for Nancy Pelosi? She has treated them like DIRT!

            Look at Chet Edwards’ quote in Dan’s article above: “It’s clear to me they could care less about my political future.”

            Pelosi cannot help them or harm them in a few more months, so honestly, I don’t see a big price to pay for “having a moment of clarity and a change of heart” on the house floor during the vote.

            Cao did it to the Repubs in Nov. and he hasn’t been “punished” by his leadership from what I can tell. What can they do? Really?

          • sarg01

            He specifically asked for permission from the Rep leadership to vote for it, if they had enough votes to pass it without him.

            And it’s not the voting against it that would never be forgiven. It’d be the lying to the whip about being a “Yes” vote on the biggest vote of the 111th Congress.

            Now, if these guys were secretly talking to Boehner about party-switching, that’d be a different story …

          • conservativemusician

            (h/t)

          • sarg01

            Cao represents post-Katrina New Orleans … a city from which huge numbers of the productive classes bailed.

            His district is almost as wacky-Dem as Pelosi’s … he only got in the first time because the Dem he was running against got caught hiding bribe money in his toilet tank.

            The dude is probably dead-congressman-walking just by having an R next to his name.

          • conservativemusician

            He’s a Republican and, more importantly, he’s an American. Yeah, he’s a RINO, but good grief, even Massachusetts understands the ramifications of this bill and as a result they sent a GOP senator to Washington to take the seat of one of the most damaging political figures in most of our lifetimes. I realize he will probably be out in November, but for goodness sakes, I don’t think it should be too much to ask of this guy to hold the party line for the good of our country for generations to come.

            I still hold to my original comment. He is a disgrace for voting for this stupid thing last year and will be even more of one if he does it again. My patience with this type of stupidity is at an end.

            Count to ten…deep breath…OK :-)

            God bless, CM

          • Swamp_Yankee
          • aesthete
          • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

            He’s a good man. I like the strategy, too. Let the Dems think they have a chance flipping Cao, that Cao will throw a baby under the bus. Not going to happen. But the more time they spend with Cao, the less time they spend with those who truely can be flipped.

          • conservativemusician

            Like a couple others here who are fairly worked up right now about this mess, it’s probably time for me to give this a rest for now. Thanks for the friendly correction. :-)

            God bless, CM

          • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

            : )

    • Menlo

      Even if he could do something in the house, he knows that this thing will be opposed by at least 55 senators and the parliamentarian. There is no way to condition the passage of one on the other, and there is no way his provision will get even a simple majority, let alone 60, senators.

      If only because of the senate, there is no way to resolve Stupak’s concerns even if it could be done via reconciliation.

  • sarg01

    http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/harry-mitchell-to-vote-yes-on-health-care-202-209-208-214-with-leaners/

    It’s a lefty site, but they’ve been trying to kill the bill since they lost the public option.

    Remember, 216 is the magic number for either side … if we’re really at 214, you have to be looking at Jim Matheson in that R+15 district and Earl Pomeroy in an R+10 (this is the guy who went off on how they needed to stop working on health care or they might as well all retire instead of run for re-election about two months ago)

  • http://www.sheetanchor.org Sheet Anchor

    Stupak says “there was no agreement.”

    http://twitter.com/EvanGlassCNN/status/10745638222

    Folks, this is not over. As someone already said, they are trying to create the image of momentum. They are still 5-7 votes short. Your tenacious work is having an impact! Continue to, as the Captain of the USS John F. Kennedy aircraft carrier said to his officers and crew, as they were just pulling into range of Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11th, ?Now they will feel the power of the Kennedy; we will strike, and strike hard!? So, continue to ?Strike? and ?Strike Hard!? We are Americans; and like our great soldiers, sailors, airmen, coast guardsmen, and United States Marines, our colors do not run! We do not give up the fight! So Strike, and strike again! In battle we are always on the offensive. They are visting war on our Constitution. It is war they shall have. Strike hard!

    • RealQuiet

      Let’s kick their ……

    • Mary Beth

      Pelosi wouldn’t try to break Stupak if she had the votes, would she?

      But if Stupak suddenly comes down with a case of the stupids and gives in to her, she’ll lose a huge chunk of the pro-death to babies sector and she still goes down.

      Am I reading this right or am I unreasonably Pollyanna-ish on this at the moment and am seeing things wrong?

      • cari

        Only Pelosi will loose 40-55 pro-abortion Dems if abortion funding is taken out. Check this out:

        Washington (CNN) – The divisive issue of abortion is once again causing eleventh hour problems for House Democrats as they plan to move forward on health care reform.

        Anti-abortion Democrat Bart Stupak of Michigan is asking for a vote on his language restricting taxpayer funding for abortion, and a group of female abortion rights Democrats came out of an emergency meeting in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office Friday evening visibly angry about the prospect.

        Rep. Diana Degette, D-Colorado, told reporters a vote on Stupak’s measure was a “non starter” and said “somewhere between 40 and 55″ abortion rights Democrats would bolt from the bill.

        “We are holding firm this time,” she insisted. “If Mr. Stupak and a few members along with the Republicans decide to use this to take health care down, that loss of health care will be in their hands.”

        It’s not yet clear how seriously Democratic leaders are considering allowing a vote on Stupak’s abortion language, or in what form.

        But Stupak told CNN he is in discussions with Pelosi.

        “We had a good discussion with the speaker on the floor,” said Stupak. “But there was no agreement and there’s no agreement until we see it in writing and we get a chance to massage it.”

        • conservativemusician

          It’s a crap shoot with him, so my opinion is as good as anyone else’s at this point.

          As much as a “blue dog” (gag) can have “principles” (double gag) it looks like he is serious about this. He knows that Pelosi is lying to him and is desperate. Otherwise, why would she be meeting with him at all? The fact that he wants it in writing from Pelosi proves that he doesn’t trust her or the Senate to follow through. Nothing has been put in writing yet, so why should this be any different? The Dems are in heap big trouble as I see it.

          Rush, as usual, called it correctly. There is no unity at all with the Dems, so everything this week with all the whip count updates, CBO reports, etc. was all a smoke screen. So ironic that this whole house of cards if it goes down in flames will do so because of the abortion issue. Whatever it takes at this point…whatever it takes.

          • eburke

            and the pro-choicers ’cause somebody’s gonna have to fold.

            If I had to put money on it, I think if she can’t find the votes elsewhere (and it looks like she can’t because she wouldn’t even be talking to Stupak if she did) she’ll give him his vote and then bet that the radical pro-abort caucus won’t actually carry through with their threat to sink the Holy Grail of socialism over abortion.

            Because she *knows* Stupak won’t fold.

          • conservativemusician

            Abortion is one of the pillars of liberalism, so I just don’t see how the pro-death Dems will put up with this. Pelosi may making the wrong assumption that the radicals won’t pitch a fit over this amendment. Way too much arrogance on their side, and this is a good thing because it leads to stupid mistakes on their part. Will be interesting to see how all of this plays out.

  • http://www.sheetanchor.org Sheet Anchor

    if at all possible. Those of you in close proximity please make every sacrifice to attend, as there is power in large numbers showing up. Here are the details:

    http://www.teapartypatriots.org/support.aspx

  • dio55

    What if a massive “PUSH BACK” demonstration were planned to give vent to the absolute fury of the american people If this thing passes . not in washington but in every town city or parish and this time organize with the tea party the republicans the libertarians EVERYONE who opposes this . ITS WIN WIN wavering dems would be quaking in their boots and might just vote no . and if heaven forbid the bill passes everyone gets a chance to vent their anger . The MSM will try to ignore but local media will not be able to and local media is what people actually watch most times . the result would rip the guts out of every incumbant DEMONRAT bar none

  • sarg01

    This is it, folks. If she can’t get the Stupak bloc, the next “No” wins it.

    … and Peter DeFazio has already said he’ll vote “No” — but everyone seems to think he’s just posturing.

  • davidabippus

    I have posted this on two other discussions as I think it is great news for our side and I am not seeing it being reported other than the American Spectator, but thanks to Paul Ryan the CBO does come forward and admit that HCR will increase the deficit. This needs to get some serious play and will hopefully push a few on the fence to the ‘No’ column.

    Responding to an inquiry from Rep. Paul Ryan, the Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that when you remove certain accounting gimmicks from the Democrats’ health care legislation, it actually increases the deficit.

    Democrats have touted a CBO report that found that their health care bill would reduce the deficit by $138 billion from 2010 to 2019. But that number assumes that hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicare cuts would be used to pay for the new health care entitlement. In a letter to Ryan, the CBO estimates that if the Medicare cuts were used to help shore up the effectively bankrupt Medicare trust fund instead, then the Democrats health care bill would run $260 billion in deficits over the next decade.

    In an earlier version of the House bill, Democrats included a measure to avoid scheduled cuts in doctors’ payments under Medicare. They removed the measure when they couldn’t get the numbers to add up, but they have continued to pass temporary delays of the cuts and have vowed to tackle the issue separately from the current health care bill. In the letter, CBO projects that if the so-called “doc fix” were added to the legislation, it would produce deficits of $59 billion from 2010 to 2019.

    Earlier CBO estimates also asume that future lawmakers would actually enact some of the unpopular measures, such as the Medicare cuts and the “Cadillac tax.” These are crucial to Democrats’ claims that the bill will reduce deficits even more — by $1.2 trillion — in the second decade. But in the letter, the CBO says that without the changes, deficits would actually increase — by a quarter of a percent of GDP, or $600 billion — in the second decade.

    Liberals have tried to portrat any criticism of the Democrats’ deficit reduction claims as an attack on the integrity of the CBO itself. But as this letter demonstrates, this isn’t about attacking the CBO. It’s just simply acknowledging that CBO analysis can vary greatly based on the questions you ask them. And clearly, Democrats kept tweaking the language until they were able to get the CBO score they wanted.

    • mavericktime

      Obama was bragging today that this bill is the biggest deficit reducer in history – or some such crap! This is going to be their line on this bill all the way up to November, and if some independents are stupid enough to believe that, I don’t know what to think. It doesn’t even make sense. They need educating!

      The budget-busting, deficit-increasing, bureaucracy-expanding nature of this bill needs to be broadcast more widely. Are the Democrats who say that the CBO score satisfies their concerns just simply lying? Brad Ellsworth said he thought it would be good for Indianans. Is he for real???

  • Mary Beth

    Good Lord.

    The Democrats are actually playing out the Lucy/Charlie Brown/Football scenario, aren’t they?

    http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0310/Reid_to_release_letter__without_signatories.html

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will release the contents ? but not the signatories ? of a letter Saturday aimed at reassuring House members that the Senate will act on the reconciliation bill.

    The letter has caused some hand-wringing among Democratic senators in recent days, not so much because they don?t support the bill ? although skeptical House members would disagree ? but senators are notoriously reluctant to publicly commit to something before they absolutely must. Senators like to preserve their leverage.

    But a binding commitment is exactly what House Democrats have sought.

    Now see what I was referring to with Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football in this transcribed scene below:

    Lucy: Say Charlie Brown, I?ve got a football. How about practicing a few placekicks? I?ll hold the ball, and you come running and kick it.

    Charlie Brown: Oh brother. I don?t mind your dishonesty, half as much as I mind your opinion of me. You must think I am stupid [to fall for this gag again].

    Lucy: Oh, come on Charlie Brown.

    Charlie Brown: No.

    Lucy: I?ll hold it steady.

    Charlie Brown: No.

    Lucy: Please!

    Charlie Brown: You just want me to come running up to kick that ball so you can pull it away and see me lying flat on my back and kill myself.

    Lucy: This time you can trust me. See, here is a signed document testifying that I promise not to pull it away.

    Charlie Brown: It is signed! It?s a signed document. I guess if you have a signed document in your possession, you can?t go wrong. This year I am really going to kick that football.

    [runs up to kick the ball, but Lucy pulls it away and he falls flat on his back]. AARG!

    Lucy: Peculiar thing about this document?it was never notarized.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTUy_mlpgy4

    So go ahead House Democrats! Kick that reconciliation football. They won’t pull it away at the last second. Honest! They’ve go a letter to prove it!

    At least in Charlie Brown’s case, he had a signed letter. The House Dems don’t even get that.

    • tngal

      They didn’t write it up in conversational script but still, I think their following you.

      http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/34699.html

  • GregInFla

    on Sunday, does that mean the House cannot take up the Senate Bill again, or since they did not really vote on the Senate Bill, it technically has not been voted on? This might be a moot point politically, but it could be important.

    Also, once Sunday passes and no vote is held, can the GOP get 20% of the House (I think that’s the rule) and demand a vote on the bill?

    • GregInFla

      with a different, more bloated, reconciliation package that would then get the votes they need. See what I mean?

    • sarg01

      Hoyer or Pelosi switches to “No” so they can call for the vote again.

      However, it would puncture the bluff the Dem leadership has been trying to make that Obamacare is a done deal, and would send them home for Easter to “Town Hall II, the Revenge”

  • sarg01

    http://firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/stupak-abortion-language-to-be-substituted-for-senate-language-in-deal-to-secure-health-care-votes/

  • davidstone

    gives more details of the Stupak compromise.

    http://firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/stupak-abortion-language-to-be-substituted-for-senate-language-in-deal-to-secure-health-care-votes/

    • GregInFla

      How could they give another deal?

      Another question: While the Supreme Court is unlikely to rule on House rules and process, could they deem the Speaker violated her oath to uphold the US Constitution by sending the bill to the President? Individual actions could be more easily reviewable, right?

      • davidstone

        A concurrent resolution is a legislative measure passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Passed by both houses, concurrent resolutions are not presented to the President and do not have the force of law. A concurrent resolution is used to take action or express opinion on behalf of both the House and Senate. It does not make law. Uses include fixing adjournment dates & setting the annual congressional budget. How this applies to abortion I have no idea.

        Ain’t Parlamentary rules fun?

        • GregInFla

          These House Dems like Stupak are being ridiculously stupid. What makes them think that because Nancy says so, the Senate which passed a bill will want to change their bill, when they do not have to? I’d love to sell these folks cars and jewelry (something about fools and their money).

          Also, I feel so much better knowing that the pro-choice Dems are looking our for all of us, when they insist that they will vote against any bill “that restricts a woman?s right to choose.” Do the choices for women include what their health insurance coverage looks like? After this bill becomes law, they won’t have many choices in which obstetrician to visit. They’ll all quit. As DEVO sang “Freedom of choice is what you got. Freedom from choice is what you want.”

          • JSobieski

            If the House passes the Stupak language again, the Senate bill would be “corrected” and the Senate would have to pass the “correction” with 51 votes.

            The Republicans could vote against it and ensure that no bill goes to the President.

          • stigmo

            Thanks for the heads up. I can’t keep track with all the procedural crap that’s allowed. We’ve come a long way from “You can’t fix abortion in reconciliation!”

            Either way this shakes out, I think I’ll spend my Sunday p.m. drinking heavily.

          • JSobieski

            He also said that as of yet, there was nothing in writing and no agreement. Just a willingness to talk to him about it.

        • Menlo

          If this is only a “feel good” thing under which the senate bill would still be enforced as it was written, then Stupak has done nothing at all but express a sentiment everyone can already be made aware of by looking at the November votes. His amendment could not even get a simple majority of senators. What is he thinking?

          • Swamp_Yankee

            I know its easy to back Stupak because he fought for a good reason.

            But now we have to hope the radical feminists bolt. There are some real nuts in the Dem caucus. As many as 40 are already starting trouble for Pelosi.

            We neede a block of them to break if Stupak joins Pelosi.

          • Menlo

            They know it will never be enforced and will die outside the house, so why would they care?

          • stigmo

            that there’s more to this than meets the eye.

            I’m skeptical, too. But maybe there’s more strateegery than we know. Stupak has had a million chances to cave thus far and hasn’t so I’m retaining at least a little faith in him.

            The other thought is that perhaps he’s standing strong but his coalition has broken off so he’s just trying to get the best he can get.

          • Menlo

            Something does not sound complete and correct here. We’ll see what he says tomorrow morning.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            I’m just trying to create as much dissension as possible to get no vote.

            If they push towards Stupak, they lose DeGette. If they push towards DeGette, they lose Stupak.

            You dont know what they will do. Personally, I dont care.

            DeGette is demanding the vote on the resolution occur before the final House vote, so they have a better chance of voting it down. but it is being reported that Stupak has the authority to vote before of after the House bill.

          • stigmo

            He loses almost all his leverage then.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Money Quote from FDL:

            “The deal calls for Stupak to have a vote on his amendment either before or after the House votes to confirm the Senate bill on Sunday. Stupak is confident that he has the votes to pass the measure, and is happy to have the vote after the House passes the Senate bill. He believes that by using a ?tie bar? approach, his amendment would be ?tied? to the health care bill ? which would require just 51 votes in the Senate.

            Pro-choice members of the House, however, are demanding that the vote on the Concurrent Resolution happen before the House confirms the Senate bill. If in fact it passes, they plan to vote against confirming the Senate bill. They want Rep. Diana Degette to release the names of the 41 cosigners to her letter who pledged to vote against any bill that restricts a woman?s right to choose, and they are angry that the White House has been whipping to push through the Stupak deal.”

            The feminists want to go first onteh resolution so they can vote the Senate Bill down if Stupak passes.

            I suppose if they vote for the Senate bill first, then the Dems may pass it and then the GOP might join the Stupak Block and pass the resoltsion because it is a done deal.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            why are the feminists “livid”

            This hasnt even got to the masses. All hell will break lose tomorrow morning

            This obviously has some teeth.

            http://thehill.com/homenews/house/87989-pro-choice-caucus-angry-at-talk-of-pelosi-stupak-deal

          • stigmo

            and that the pro-choice caucus is play acting?

            This seems ripe to be a Stupak CYA…

    • Menlo

      If there were such a thing, a whole lot of changes would have been done that way!

      Does that mean the senate bill could possibly pass even if Stupak’s amendment fails in the senate (which it would, even under reconciliation).

      This is troubling!

      • JSobieski

        I am 90% certain that Pelosi will not move to a point that Stupak can accept.

        I am 99% certain that Stupak will not move away from the concept that a federal subsidy not be used to purchase insurance that pays for an abortion.

        • joayn

          However, it’s a big gamble for Pelosi to give Stupak’s legislation a vote and it passes. But I think she knows the rabids for choice will cave and vote for the bill in the end. They will throw a fit, but in the end will vote for this for sure. They’re just too close to not pass this thing and Pelosi knows it. Plus, as someone else noted, they’ll make concessions and Stupak won’t.

          So I guess Stupak is thinking the Republicans are going to vote with him on this and it passes. It would be too funny if the Repubs voted present and his legislation failed. If I was him, I’d want the vote first.

          I think the guy’s an idiot, a usefull idiot, but an idiot all the same. Besides the abortion issue and a few other items in the bill, he’d still love to pass it. Total leftie.

          • JSobieski

            I thought tie-bars can only be for relatively minor mistakes?

            In any case, the Republicans should vote in favor of the Stupak language in the House but the Republicans in the Senate should vote against it.

            It is imperitive that the Senate and House version differ. The Senate will never pass the Stupak language—it got only 45 votes last time

            Stupak is no idiot, he is a true believer.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    I have to start practicing my outraged feminist writing style. Stoke anger on the Left. Get to get a few of those nut jobs to bail now. Drive a deep wedge between Stupak Block and the Feminists, so there is no compromise, at least not until Easter Recess.

  • mavericktime

    I’ve wanted to say this for a while.

    In my opinion, it was a mistake for Jim DeMint to tell Republicans publicly that causing the Democrats to fail at health care reform would be Obama’s Waterloo. I know he’s popular on this site, but to me, that one remark just increased Obama’s determination to prove him wrong. Plus it made the Republicans look obstructionist just for the sake of taking Obama down. The goal should be to appear reasonable, not destructive. I wonder if he ever regretted saying that.

    • ted40

      Even FOX says the Democrats have the votes. There’s nothing to be gained at this point by retreating into denial.

      The bill will pass on Sunday, and create a new entitlement. We won’t be able to repeal it without alienating the 32 million voters who expect to get health insurance from the bill.

      Are you beginning to realize that Mitch McConnell is not as much of a genius as he thinks? I’m afraid David Frum has his number:

      “We had a choice; do we negotiate and try to get some of our values in the bill? Or do we go for total defeat of the President and bet everything on that? I was one of those who said negotiate. That advice was rejected. We went for total defeat of the President. If he prevails, it is going to be a shutout of Republican views in one of the most important pieces of legislation ever passed in the United States.”

      The Republican party is toast now for a decade. The younger generation of voters already sees us as corrupt, torture-loving, red-faced hypocrites. Now they see that the other side can stare us down, and win, and deliver the goods.

      All we have to offer now is fear. But who’s really going to believe that this bill — endorsed by the AMA and AARP, by drug manufacturers, the Catholic Health Association, and hospitals — is a “government takeover of healthcare”? No under the age of 45, or north of the Mason-Dixon line, is buying that spin.

      Please cancel my account. I want to be part of a party that governs instead of one that reads Ayn Rand and indulges itself in paranoid rants.

      • Beasley Beesmeal

        bring it!

      • mbecker908

        of a certified notice of your death along with notarized copies of the coroner’s report.

        Have your next of kin forward those and your account is history.

        • CincoSolas_del_Bronx
      • JSobieski

        If you want to implement operation buzz kill, at least be realistic about it..

        The Republican brand is alive and well regardless of how the vote goes down. We are worried about the country here. The Democrats in Congress are toast regardless.

      • davidstone

        All younger generations are more liberal than older generations. That poll would not look any different any other time in our history.

        Churchill once said “if you are young and are not liberal, you have no heart. If you get older and are still a liberal, you have no brain.”

        Let these younger generations graduate college, pay taxes, try to raise a family, buy a home, run a business, etc. and see how big government liberal they are.

      • freeperfan

        That account was closed.

        • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

          Thanks for the laugh. It’s been a long day, and a long week. Time to rest up and get some needed energy for tomorrow.

          • freeperfan

            it was a serious post. The ajl_mo account is closed. If ted40 wants his account closed he should e-mail ajl_mo

          • Beasley Beesmeal

            fail

      • joayn

        “All we have to offer now is fear.” And to that I say, well, go blow the O.

        (Please, moderators, I promise never to say that again. Forgive me.)

      • 6eorge Jetson

        In my wildest dreams, I couldn’t have imagined or schemed a hastier self-destruction than what Obama-Reid-Pelosi have accomplished (hehe) in 15 months.

        Alex Castellanos says it well

        A New Republican might tell young, jobless millennial voters, ?I think the best way to grow the economy is bottom-up and organically like Facebook. My opponent, like most Washington insiders, thinks it is top-down like an assembly-line or the army. What do you think??

        A new ?organic? generation of GOP leaders can also advocate natural, bottom-up GOP policy, on education and health care, for example, where we would put the cost control mechanisms at the bottom with doctors and patients, not at the top with political insiders and bureaucrats. He could support an open energy economy that used the full diversity of American energy sources, not a Washington run energy machine, restricted by political insiders.

        Where populism and conservative principles meet, you will find a New Republican and the spirit of a new age.

        THE GENERATION OF BOTTOM-UP CHANGE
        In 2008, the candidate who understood the spirit of our times was Barack Obama. Throughout his remarkable campaign he promised: ?change starts from the bottom up.? He said the same about prosperity. But the bottom-up candidate has become the top-down president. At almost every opportunity, he has chosen the opposite of his promise: He?s trusted old, machine-like, command-and-control government to tackle society?s ills.

        This could cost Democrats the most valuable political real estate they gained in the 2008 election. Without a doubt, the millennial generation Obama inspired is the most empowered generation of Americans in history. They have never been told what to do by anybody. They especially do not like being told what to do by ?the machine.? What an old-fashioned conservative might call ?individualistic? or ?entrepreneurial? they might describe as ?independent? or ?organic,? but what these self-directed souls believe is no different from what freedom-loving conservatives cherish.

        Not that long ago, a similar generation of young Americans joined the Republican cause. The party of new ideas attracted them. The principles of Ronald Reagan were our magnet. Republicans again have an exciting intellectual framework to offer that is consistent with the dynamic nature of society and the principles we still treasure. The Facebook generation has been abandoned by a Democratic party that has regressed to obsolete, machine-age thinking. Let?s scoop them up. They are ripe for the empowering ideology of a new day.

      • treeofliberty

        on March 19th 12:18AM Ted40 wrote:

        “Even if this bill does pass on Sunday, and create a new entitlement, we will prevail in the end ? because the majority of the younger generation are with us.”

        vs the Ted40 of March 19 11:41PM:

        “The Republican party is toast now for a decade. The younger generation of voters already sees us as corrupt, torture-loving, red-faced hypocrites.”

        Hmm any chance you might be an elected official?

        I wonder what the Dems promised to make you cave…. A dinner date with Pelosi (or perhaps Kucinich)??

      • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
    • AndrewHyman

      The goal should be to BE reasonable. :-)

      • mavericktime

        N/T

  • davidstone

    Pelosi has sold out to Stupak and he will get his vote, if Pelosi gets her way. Guess what guys, now our hopes of killing Obamacare reside in the strength of the pro-choice caucus, which supposedly had 41 members who would vote no on Obamacare if Stupak got his way.

    Any of you want to bet your house on the pro-choice house dems thwarting Pelosi – their friend and hero?

    • Kyle-MI

      n/t

      • stigmo

        I think they’re part of the act. This has setup written all over it.

    • JSobieski

      Would the Senate be required to pass matching language for the President to sign it into law.

      However, as of Greta tonight, there was no agreement on the language from Pelosi, so I suspect there will be a lot of arguing, and nothing actually happens.

      This development is however a good thing—-it means that Pelosi does not have the votes.

      • davidstone

        http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/34731_Page2.html

        • stigmo

          http://hotair.com/archives/2010/03/19/chaos-pelosi-reaches-deal-with-stupak-for-senate-abortion-vote/

          • JSobieski

            There is no more recent source of actual direct information.

          • joayn

            Greta’s interview was taped earlier today.

            Guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

          • Mary Beth

            I’m getting emotional whiplash and that can’t do anything but keep me focused.

            The next day or so will be all about phone calls, emails and faxes. I don’t have time for pseudo experts to tell me why conventional wisdom is on Pelosi’s side.

            I don’t have the luxury for that kind of thinking…all that would do is distract and discourage.

            That eats up precious time…and we have a fight to win.

          • ocleverone
          • Mary Beth

            I figure that was implied even with the error…but just in case… ;)

          • ocleverone

            :D

    • joayn
  • jenniferjmilleresq

    41 of the pro-choice Dems are preparing for war tomorrow in response to the Stupak deal. I am glad DeMint stood up to Obama and furthermore, American’s would LOVE for someone to obstruct him right now….look at the polls

    • davidstone

      Pelosi is very pro-choice and is their ally? The only dems that seem to hold up are those in the Stupak caucus. Remember, they placated him last year.

      I fear we will learn there has been a lot of wishful thinking on this site (me included).

  • Kyle-MI

    OTOH, we did not have the votes against it either. There were just too many Dems who were undecided and would have remained undecided until forced to choose. It is looking like they had to schedule the vote in order to pressure the undecided to decide. The supporters hope that they can wheel, deal, and pressure the undecided to vote, “yes”.

    The good news for us is all this talk about inevitability is garbage. The bad news is that they could still win. Keep up the fight. No one really knows which way this will go until the vote is actually taken.

  • davidstone

    incompetent.

    From TheHayride:

    “What I still find astonishing is the timing. Anyone who actually looked at the individual votes and counted them could see that the votes to pass Obamacare simply were not there. Incredibly, no one else did this ? least of all Nancy Pelosi. The damage that she has done to her own caucus is substantial, and she could lose the Speaker?s post over this. What was the point, for example, of forcing Rep. Ellsworth to seriously damage his U.S. Senate campaign earlier today by forcing him to declare his support for the bill? If she were going to make a deal with Stupak, she could have let Ellsworth keep his pro-life credentials instead of exposing him as a fraud. I think a lot of Democratic members are going to be very, very angry with her for her incompetent handling of this situation, no matter whether Obamacare ends up passing or not. This is going to have lasting consequences for congressional Democrats.”

  • cactusjack

    Have you heard the latest, being reported today, Obama is planning a trip to Texas soon to come down to the border i.e., Rio Grande River, and “examine the situation.” Does this give us a real good guess what the subject of his next effort of “historic legislation” may be? Looks like his and Nancy’s plan is to try to have free health care ready and warmed up when 30 million-plus undocumenteds achieve amnesty. The truth is the Sovereign Republic of Texas (1836-45) handled itself and the border with five companies of Rangers, than the feds have the last 20 years. What is a state supposed to do when confronted with the above, or other crushing fed’l burdens the state didn’t approve or want? The AGs in some states are getting ready to file – can we now understand if they do, those would be acts of self-defense, not first strike…the first strike comes from Congress when it passes unconstitutional, invalid legislation.

    • proudgop

      as many of you and feel useless minus the calls, faxes, and emails I can make

      I hate to say this but Obama has not only destroyed this country but he is doing so in the most divisive way and I can feel some major protests and riots happening and at this point I am not even sure it would be bad thing.

      I really can’t stand to look at either him or even Michelle they both revolt me

  • joayn

    Awsome, simply awsome.

    http://patriotroom.com/article/honk-to-stop-obamacare-protest-32-seconds-of-noise

    • aesthete

      It was quite fun :)

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