Wave of First Time Voters? Not so much – Gallup
Same as 2004
So the Gallup Poll (while polling for their tracking poll) asked respondents “whether this would be the first time they had voted in a presidential election, or whether they had voted for president before.”
We’ve been subject to numerous stories about all the new young and black voters that Barack Obama would bring in this year, how excited they were, how they were going to change the game.
The results? Not so much – No Increase in Proportion of First-Time Voters:
Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.
The Obama campaign is trying to discourage Republican voters by saying that the election is over, we don’t have to bother voting. Well you know what, I’m voting no matter the outcome. John McCain might win or he might lose – I think he is probably a couple of points behind right now, but well within striking distance. John Kerry had massive turnout for him and would have won had Bush not increased his turnout as well.
It is not over, many of those late deciders will probably not be comfortable enough with the other guy being in charge. McCain still has a good shot at winning.