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Wave of First Time Voters? Not so much – Gallup

Same as 2004

By: Darin_H (Diary)  |  October 23rd, 2008 at 03:33 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

So the Gallup Poll (while polling for their tracking poll) asked respondents “whether this would be the first time they had voted in a presidential election, or whether they had voted for president before.”

We’ve been subject to numerous stories about all the new young and black voters that Barack Obama would bring in this year, how excited they were, how they were going to change the game.

The results? Not so much – No Increase in Proportion of First-Time Voters:

Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.

The Obama campaign is trying to discourage Republican voters by saying that the election is over, we don’t have to bother voting. Well you know what, I’m voting no matter the outcome. John McCain might win or he might lose – I think he is probably a couple of points behind right now, but well within striking distance. John Kerry had massive turnout for him and would have won had Bush not increased his turnout as well.

It is not over, many of those late deciders will probably not be comfortable enough with the other guy being in charge. McCain still has a good shot at winning.

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  • jimmuy8

    And even all this crowing about “massive” black turnout? Big whoop. A massive black turnout would equal something like a 1% movement in white vote. And, uh, don’t look now but, Obama ain’t exactly blowing the doors off the white vote.

  • jerf1120

    I wander if Mickey Mouse and Snow White are considered first time voters. They probably have voted before…after all Clinton was elected twice.

  • dkons05

    Always lean Obama, then the teacher asks for a count of who will be voting.. Less than 5 hands raise, mine is always one of them.

    I’m 21, a first time voter, and my ballot already was submitted for McCain.

  • PaRep

    Bigfoot,Sasquatch, The Abominable Snowman or Yeti for short, Little Green Men & the Loch Ness Monster/Sarcasm

  • Darin_H

    So he’s tougher to poll, Snow White is registered at a midget homeless shelter (pay phone only)…

  • PaRep

    Another DJ Drummond on the drive by Pollsters cooking of state poll

    http://tinyurl.com/5r8ser

  • bigfoot

    that the state polls are cooked as well. In MN, we have to do deal with the Star Tribune’s phony polls every two years.

    In one recent poll these dingbats had Obama up 18 points. No surprise, they had Kerry up 13 points several days before the 2004 election. Kerry won MN by several points.

    I’d laugh if it weren’t so pathetic.