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Just a quick note regarding 2012

By: Dave_in_Fla (Diary)  |  November 3rd, 2010 at 11:00 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

In the last several election cycles, three states have been the keys to winning the white house. With their combined total of 80 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio are the most important to both parties.

In 2000, Florida decided the race.

In 2004, the winner had to take 2 of 3 to win, Bush carried Florida and Ohio, and won reelection.

In 2008, Obama took all three and cruised to victory.

All three have been toss up in the last 3 cycles.

In the midst of disappointment over some Senate races, please note the utter devastation visited upon the Democrats in these 3 states. The GOP won a Senate seat, Govenor, GOP assemblies, and every competitive house race in these states. It was a wipeout.

They are going to try and spin the NV and CA wins as critical, but I assure you that what they are really worrying about right now is what happened in these 3 states specifically.

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  • jeremyz

    For 2012 it is obvious that FL and OH have tacked back toward the right and though very competitive, are great opportunities to flip back to the R column. PA however is probably out of reach. In a huge wave year where PA turned over almost every competitive congressional race from blue to red, in a statewide election Toomey could only win by a percent or two.

    I believe the Senate is the best barometer for PA, and Republicans haven’t taken PA since 1988 in the presidential election. Conservatives will be able to do a lot of good on a state level, control the redistricting process, but long term last night showed that a Toomey (a very good and conservative candidate) still has tenuous path to victory even in a wave election year.

    I do think Casey is vulnerable in 2012 though if the “right candidate” can oppose him.

    • grant9992

      I think right now anythings possible I mean from what ive read and seen Pat Toomey is very conservative. I mean he was hanging out with Ron Paul when he was a congressman. I think its not out of reach for Republicans in 2012 to actually have a chance in PA. But for the most part is is kind of a longshot but only time will tell. In recent years they have gone Democrat pretty handily and this was a terrible year for Democrats and we just barely won.

  • IJB

    I agree with you that things look bleak, bleak, bleak for Obama in not just FL and OH, but places like VA and IN too – Obama can pretty much assume that he’ll carry *none* of these.

    However, I think things still look good for Obama to carry the following states: NC, CO, and NV (and of course CA, OR, and WA).

    NM looks like it’s back to being a true “swing state”.

    PA and MI, and to a lesser extent WI, I think you’ve still got to assume are “lean D” states, despite what happened last night.

    Now I haven’t looked at the (new) E.C. college math yet, but I’ve got figure that if Obama can hold, PA, MI, WI and IA, and take NC, CO and NV as well, his odds of reelection must look pretty good.

    Guess we’ll see soon enough…

  • GregInFla

    Dem. Senator Nelson’s seat is up in 2012. We’ll have to watch some of the Congressmen over the next year to see who stands out. I would love for Allen West to be that candidate, but he may not be ready, and may be better suited for the 2014 governor’s race (pending Scott’s record), and then a move towards POTUS in 2016/2020. I am not sure any of the other state-wide folks who won this year (Bondi, Atwater, Putnam) would be qualified. Given that Crist and Rubio were campaigning in 2009, 2011 is not too soon for the 2012 race.

    20 of the 33 Senate seats up in 2012 are held by Democrats. It could be another good year. Steele and the RNC needs to be planning now.