Here is a fun little video of Caleb’s “opening” remarks. Not particularly political, but pretty funny.

Caleb Howe from David Thompson on Vimeo.

John Randall gave us a short talk about the NRCC recruitment efforts for 2010. Even though it was short, it was very informative, and gave us a good bit of confidence for success in 2010.

John Randall from David Thompson on Vimeo.

All I can say about Nikki Haley is WOW. The story of her rise in politics, and her willingness to take on the Republican establishment in South Carolina is compelling. She capped off the presentations in Atlanta, like the cherry on top of the cake.

She is running for Governor of South Carolina next year. Regardless of the success of her campaign, she is clearly going to be a strong voice for conservatives in the future.

Just watch.

Nikki Haley from David Thompson on Vimeo.

Ted Cruz was the Solicitor General for Texas, and is running for Attorney General. He gave a terrific speech, telling us the story of defending Texas’ 10th amendment rights against international courts and the Justice Department.

A very engaging speaker, he had us spellbound throughout. His story of his father escaping Cuba is amazing to hear.

Ted Cruz from David Thompson on Vimeo.

Ken Cuccinelli is a Virginia State Senator running for Attorney General this year. He gave an excellent address about his campaign and the state of politics in Virginia. He is unapologetic about running on conservative first principles, and brings a breath of fresh air in his willingness to fight for his beliefs.

I think you will enjoy this as much as we did in Atlanta.

Ken Cuccinelli from David Thompson on Vimeo.

Karen Handel, the Georgia Secretary of State, will be running for Governor of Georgia next year. She has been a leader in pushing for voter identification and proof of citizenship in elections, with tremendous success.

Her presentation at the Redstate Gathering was wide ranging, discussing the role of Secretaries of State, the recent push by Democrats to target these offices in swing states, and the challenges Georgia has in dealing with the Voting Rights Act.

Erick was proud to announce Redstate’s endorsement of her candidacy.

Karen Handel from David Thompson on Vimeo.

Many people in the establishment believe the Marco Rubio’s campaign is doomed, and that the best thing he can do for the party is to get out of the way and let Charlie Crist, the next person in line, to take the Senate seat from Florida.

Those people are wrong. Campaigns like Marco’s are vital to improving our legislators in Washington. They force establishment candidates, like Crist, to answer to their constituents and remember who they work for.

And Marco can win. Despite being behind in the polls and fundraising, he is winning straw poll after straw poll, when people hear his message. So watch and listen to the next Senator from Florida. You will be amazed.

Marco Rubio from David Thompson on Vimeo.

The story of Lawrence Spivak has been all over the news recently. He is a small businessman selling conservative and anti-Obama merchandise in a mall in North Carolina. When another mall employee complained that he was selling items critical of Obama, his lease was terminated.

This story has turned out to be a tremendous metaphor for the current struggle against Statism. I personally watched Lawrence on the Glenn Beck show as they examined the political affiliations of the Simon conglomerate.

Caleb surprised us by bringing him to Atlanta and setting him up with a booth to sell his bumperstickers. He did a brisk business, and I picked up 5 of them myself. This is a short video of some of his remarks to the gathering, along with rare video of the great Caleb himself.

FreeMarketWarrior.com – Lawrence Spivak from David Thompson on Vimeo.

Michael Williams is an amazing, dynamic speaker. He is the current Railroad Commissioner for Texas, and the odds on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchinson when she leaves the Senate in the next few months. At times the room felt like an old time revival, with Michael drawing in the crowd with his eloquence combined with a genuinely friendly demeanor. Words really can’t describe it, just watch.

Michael Williams from David Thompson on Vimeo.

The highlight of the Redstate Gathering was Liz Cheney’s address to us, discussing world events and the involvement of the Obama administration in them.  She was a very engaging speaker, and the crowd enjoyed it immensely.  Afterward, she was very gracious with her time, posing for pictures with the attendees.

Liz Cheney from David Thompson on Vimeo.

Promoted from diaries, despite the hiccup: the link to the video works. – Moe Lane

Here is video of Tom Price’s remarks and Q&A at the Redstate Gathering.  Congressman Price welcomed us to Atlanta before heading to the airport for his flight to Israel as part of a congressional delegation.

Congressman Tom Price from David Thompson on Vimeo.

More video will be posted as I process it.

I am laughing so hard right now that tears are rolling down my face. From a link on Ace, I found the following “proof” that Obama is not eligible to be president.

So this knockoff on the Dan Rather memo is funny enough. But what is truly hilarious are the leftists that don’t get the joke, and think this is a real Birther claim.

Anyone could have typed this. In fact, I did it. Can you prove me wrong?

The House of Representatives certified the election in January. The same body just reaffirmed that Obama was born in Hawaii.

This is beyond sour grapes and wading deep into frothiness on the lips.

John Mc Cain was for sure not born in the USA but in the Panama Canal Zone. No conservatives gripped about having a Panamanian born prez. Bottom Line: The average conservative is a white racist who seethes with rage about our “mullato” POTUS. Deal with it hillbillies. A latino president is next, then a woman, then a gay, then God will destroy AmeriKKKa with hell fire and your inbred kids will fall into the abyss. About damn time too.

I don’t believe this to be real or proves anything nor does it matter. If you do your research you’ll find that even if he was born in Africa that he still meets the criteria as stated in the Constitution as a “natural born citizen” because he is BORN a US citizen because of his mother as opposed to a naturalized citizen. John McCain was born in Panama but hardly anyone questioned his eligibility.

No letterhead, no date, no name, no signature, no addressee.

Worth about as much as the American Buck.

This is interesting, but with no background about who sent it, where it is from, and what these people are talking about, it is meaningless.

Is this supposed to be a memo from a hospital in Hawaii? Who are these doctors mentioned (Staudt, Hodges and Harris)? Where did this come from, and how did it manage to get faxed to you?

If you want to be believed, you need to explain things in a believable manner.

A doctor would remember what babies were born during his or her shift in 1962??

Funny how nobody found this before a random republican blog…. also funny how there are no signatures.

This whole conversation is really stupid. Obama won the election. It’s over – now deal with it.

HA,HA,HA,HA,HA!!!!! You nutjobs are sure running out of ideas! HA,HA,HA,HA,HA,HA!!!!
;D

I could keep going, but the level of cluelessness is really beyond measure. I think the comment thread was pretty well summed up by the following.

Rob, you have managed to create the world’s most powerful stupid magnet! We got us some weapons grade stupidity right here.

There are no links in this post, because it is a 100% personal story. As such, take all of this with a big grain of salt. This story has a statistical sample of 1, with all the accuracy that implies. However, this is such an interesting vignette, I couldn’t resist sharing.

This weekend we were having dinner with my parents at Disney World. As the conversation continued, the subject of my cousin’s new marriage came up. She just got married for the 3rd time back in the spring in a lavish wedding in Las Vegas. Now I can’t really call my cousin a gold digger, since she has a degree in dentistry and a considerable nest egg from back when she was in practice. However, she does not associate with anyone without money, and certainly won’t marry someone without it.

So her new husband is a school administrator in California.

I’m sure your “spidey-sense” is tingling right now, but the story gets better.

He lives in Phoenix. Every week, he flies his private plane to California to work. He has a condo near his job, to make it convenient for him. But this weekend, my Dad told me the best part. This guy found a Mercedes SL500 AMG hardtop convertible for sale in Sarasota, Florida. He asked my Dad to go check it out for him, before he purchased it. Turns out it is in mint condition, so my new “cousin-in-law” is going to pay cash for it, and have it shipped to Phoenix. These cars retail new for over $100,000.

Now I don’t begrudge anyone making some money (besides the normal in-family jealousy). But I found it fascinating that California can afford to pay its school administrators enough money to allow them to live such a lifestyle. How was I to know that engineering was such a dead-end job?

When playing chess, there often comes a time toward the end of the game when the outcome is preordained, even though the final moves have yet to be made. The positions of the pieces, and the relative strengths between the two sides are such that no combination of moves can prevent one of the players from winning the game. When both of the players are very experienced, the player in the winning position will often say “Mate in X moves”. This is a signal to the losing player to examine the board and see that the other player does indeed have a path to checkmate that cannot be blocked. Usually, the losing player will then “tip the King” to surrender the game, saving everyone time.

When players are of unequal experience, this often becomes a teaching exercise. The more experienced player will declare that checkmate is imminent, but the losing player doesn’t see how that is possible. The game then continues, with the loser learning a valuable lesson about end game strategies.

Obama’s Healthcare bill in Congress reached a point yesterday where the outcome is preordained, however as an inexperienced player, he is continuing to play the game, not yet realizing that he cannot win.

As I wrote last week, Obama has a bad hand to play here (my apologies for mixing metaphors). He expended his political capital on the stimulus, but did not use it when he had it to pass healthcare. Instead he waited until the political fallout from the stimulus began to erode his public support, and has been trying to hurry through a bill before it eroded further. This has resulted in a legislative game where the quality of the bill is irrelevant, only the speed at which something must pass matters. The irony is that with a 72 seat majority in the House and a 20 seat majority in the Senate, he still can’t get a piece of legislation that will pass in Congress.

On Tuesday, the outcome was still in doubt. Both Pelosi and Reid were willing to give Obama a chance to sway public opinion in favor of the bill. They were waiting for his press conference to see if he could use his personal charm to turn public opinion in the direction of trusting him with their health. On Wednesday night, Obama turned in arguably the worst public performance of his career, even drawing criticism from usually sympathetic journalistic outlets such as the Associated Press, the New York Times and MSNBC. As Howard Fineman said:

“His prime time press conference was worse than a waste of time. He spent an hour (with the aide of a soporific White House press corps) pouring sand (one grain at a time) into the already-slowing gears of the machinery of health-care reform.”

After this debacle, Congressional leadership realized that quick passage of the legislation would be impossible without public support and announced that no vote would occur in either chamber. Today, Nancy Pelosi appears to have been pressured by the White House (Rahm Emmanuel in particular) to violate House rules and bring the bill to a House vote next week, without approval by the Energy and Commerce committee. If this does occur, it will be a pyrrhic victory, having insulted the committees in order to pass legislation that the Senate will do nothing with. It also has a strong possibility of losing, especially if public funding for abortion is not explicitly prohibited in the bill.

Regardless of what happens in the House, the Senate will go into the August recess without voting on a healthcare bill. This will send the members of congress back to their home districts, where they will meet with a firestorm of opposition. Many members of the House, especially from Republican leaning districts have been stunned by the anger they have received from constituents over the Cap & Trade vote. That is going to be minor compared to this, especially if a Blue Dog has caved and voted in the House for this bill.

Let’s look at the cratering of public support for Obama in the last year. In November, 2008 after the Presidential Election, Rasmussen’s party affiliation tracking showed identification of 41.4% Democrat, 33.8% Republican, and 24.7% Independent. The June poll reflects how that has changed since, with 38.9% Democrat, 32.2% Republican, and 28.9% Independent. This means that Independents are self identified 4% higher than in November, with a 3% loss from Democrats and 1% loss from Republicans. Yesterday’s daily Presidential tracking poll, for the first time, showed Obama support among likely voters had dropped below 50%, hitting 49%. Note that Rasmussen uses a likely voter model, where other polls use an “all adults” model, which yields a higher approval result.

It’s not just Rasmussen. If you dig into the internals of the AP/Gfk poll, which is a poll of 1007 adults, you can see an interesting shift over time. Their July poll showed a 48% Democrat vs. a 38% Republican partisan split. But if you compare it to their May poll, and dig into the internals you see that 6% moved from “Strong Democrat” to “Moderate Democrat”, and 7% went from “Independent” to “Independent-Lean Republican”. This shows a significant shift from the left toward the right.

Both of these polling firms show significant opposition to the healthcare bill. Rasmussen is showing 53% opposition to the bill. AP/Gfk (now 2 weeks old) shows a 50/43 split toward approval, but the highest category is “Strongly Disapprove” which rose from 18% to 34% in 3 months.

So what is going to happen between now and the end of the August recess? Well Obama purposely withheld the July budget report, delaying it into August. The most likely reason is that it will show the deficit growing faster than expected, with significantly reduced revenues. Additionally, we have a July and August jobs report that will hit between now and when Congress reconvenes. There is a strong possibility that unemployment is going to pass the psychological barrier of 10%, which will create a great deal of political emphasis on the economy and stimulus, making Healthcare much less important. Additionally, Obama is going to try and pressure recalcitrant Democrats to vote for his bill during the recess. Juan Williams talked to White House contacts yesterday, and found that the plan is to remind Democrats how important it is for them to support a Democrat President, and that it will affect their fund raising efforts if they continue to resist.

In other words, Obama does not plan to try and build public support for his plan. His efforts will focus solely on political pressure on other Democrats.

This is a tactic that will not work for him.

Democrat members of the House and Senate are looking at polls and their need for votes from their constituents. They see the strong recruiting efforts of the Republicans. They will need to decide which they need more, MoveOn.org’s money or votes. They are going to choose votes.

Obama also hopes to use grassroots efforts to “get them onboard”, hoping that with a strong local push, they will change their minds. But how many Acorn grassroots efforts are going to be successful in the critical districts, compared to the people that are already showing up for these townhall meetings? We haven’t even begun to mobilize tea-party efforts. The result will be a strong push against Obama’s legislative efforts within the districts due to dissatisfaction with the bill, crumbling popularity of Obama, rising economic concerns, and fear of losing reelection.

The game is over. Obama is just too inexperienced a player to realize it is time to tip his King.

For those of you that follow me on Twitter (@dave_in_fla), you may have noticed a few snide tweets over the last few weeks about how stupid Obama was to spend his political capital on the stimulus bill. My point (which is difficult to convey in 140 characters) is that all administrations have only so much political capital, and they have to use it while they’ve got it. George W. Bush understood this well, which is why he used his on five major initiatives, education, Medicare Part D, tax cuts, Afghanistan and Iraq. Note that Bush also tried to use it after the 2004 election to enact Social Security reform, but failed by over reaching toward a shift toward privatization.

Once political capital is gone, it is gone. You can’t get it back unless you win an election, or have a significant event provide you authority to act (such as 9/11 did for Bush). And without that capital, you are unable to enact sweeping structural changes through legislative action. Instead, you have to develop a strong bi-partisan consensus to make changes, something difficult to do when congressional leadership is named Pelosi and Reid.

The next 3 weeks are critical in the Obama Presidency, and mark the final 3 weeks of his first term as measured by major legislative initiatives. If Healthcare is the defining measure of his presidency, then he has made two significant mistakes along the way that are forcing him to achieve success in a short period, or lose.

First, he spent an huge amount of capital on passage of the $797B stimulus package, without becoming personally involved in the details of the legislation. This is unfortunately a hallmark of his personal style. He is disinterested in details, as can be traced back to his short tenure in the Senate. He allowed Congress to draft the package, without any guidance other than “make it big”. Congress of course does what it is good at, and used it as a giant earmark package, funding every pet project they had on the table. The end result was a giant package, which Obama made bold claims about, which have produced no visible benefits to the voters in the last 6 months.

Now the passage of the stimulus was not in and of itself a problem for Obama. If he had been ready to push forward with a healthcare overhaul immediately after the stimulus passed, he could have gotten what he wants. However, he was hindered by his two personal foibles; arrogance and laziness. He wasn’t willing to take direct action to craft legislation that he could use to guide a quick effort through Congress, instead he fell back on “conscienceness raising seminars” with breakout sessions that are universally used in business to give the appearance of action without actually doing anything. Second, he arrogantly believes in his own personal popularity to the point that he thinks that he will always have a 65%+ approval rating, just cause he is so freaking awesome.

So time went by, and the economy got worse. He allowed 5 months to pass, with mounting unemployment eroding his core support with the voters. It really is irrelevant whether or not his actions are hindering recovery. Laid off employees, their families, and their friends, are going to blame him for their problems, no matter how much he tries to blame Bush. If you track the Rasmussen approval index, there is strong negative correlation between the increase in unemployment and the decrease in the index. He is currently hovering around a -8 on the index, which dropped from around -1 when the June unemployment numbers were announced.

The second critical mistake was Cap and Trade. Obama tried to sneak this one through Congress when they did a vote count and realized they had enough to get it through the House. He gambled that once through the House it could quickly head to the Senate and get approved. This turned out to be a huge mistake, because it provided a rallying cry to opposition that was already disaffected by the lack of results on the economy. Congress was stunned by the level of opposition, and is still reeling from the effects as they go home to their districts and hear from constituents. The Senate wisely noted the firestorm and has tabled the measure until after the August recess. Cap and Trade is now in legislative limbo and will live and die based on the outcome of healthcare.

This brings us to today. Obama squandered his political capital on the stimulus, and activated vocal opposition during Cap and Trade. He now has 3 weeks to try and bully Congress into passing a version of Healthcare that he can claim as his own. The question is will a version without a public option be considered a legislative victory, or a defeat for the administration? It is unlikely, given the current environment, that he can get a package with a public option passed before the August recess. But if he doesn’t get something passed before then, the clock will have expired and the game will be over. His personal approval will have dropped below 50% like the approval of his policies already have. His political capital will have been spent. Both cap and trade, and healthcare will be dead legislatively, and he will be forced to deal with the economic mess as the new fiscal year begins.

Obama is facing the end of his presidency, as he knows it. He must win on healthcare in the next 3 weeks, or become effectively a lameduck.

Let’s start with the first letter I received. This is from Senator Bill Nelson in response to my letter regarding cap & trade legislation:

Thank you for contacting me regarding cap-and-trade legislation.

I am interested in cap-and-trade programs because they would let the market, not the government, dictate how to lower harmful emissions. I believe that we have the technology and ability to meet the challenge of climate change in a way that will provide new economic opportunities and make us more competitive internationally while protecting consumers from high energy prices and breaking our dependence on oil.

Global warming threatens Florida’s fragile ecosystem and $56 billion tourism industry. Rising sea levels will encroach on Florida’s pristine beaches and harm coastal wetlands and the Everglades. Increased carbon dioxide and water temperatures will damage sensitive coral reefs and endanger Florida’s diverse marine species. A scientific study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded with 90 percent certainty that global warming is caused by the accumulation of man-made greenhouse gasses.

On June 26, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. The Senate is expected to consider legislation to address energy independence and climate change in the fall.

I will continue to work in the Senate to fight the effects of global warming. I appreciate your taking the time to share your thoughts with me, and I respect your views. Please feel free to regarding any additional issues of concern.

Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson

We had some fun a few days ago with this letter. I am still thinking about how to respond to it. Currently I’m leaning toward taking on the role of a real environmentalist who is pissed off that he is cheapening the validity of the movement through support for this bill. It should be pretty easy to make the case that actual funding for protection of the Everglades will be hurt due to the distraction caused by this bill.

Now contrast Senator “Crazy” Nelson with Representative Bill Posey, who sent me this letter:

Thank you for contacting me to express your concerns about global warming legislation being considered in the Congress. I appreciate hearing from you and share your concerns.

The Waxman/Markey-Cap and Trade National Energy Tax legislation (H.R. 2454) that passed the House on June 26, 2009 could cost the average family anywhere $750 and $3,100 per year. Keep in mind that Washington typically underestimates the cost of legislation, thinking they can get them into law before the American people know the true cost. This bill includes budget gimmicks hiding the full cost.

This 900-plus-page bill started out as legislation aimed at improving the environment, but it has become a means of raising money to pay for larger, more intrusive government while having little impact on the global environment. This is how it works in layman’s terms:

Washington places a limit (cap) on carbon emissions and pegs it to the output level of a certain year. The government auctions off carbon emission permits for energy producers, refineries, and factories to purchase (usually through speculators) in order to emit more carbon. Many credits are given away to special interest groups. If a company needs to meet a rising demand for energy, it will have to purchase permits to do so. The cost of purchasing these credits will simply be passed on to the customer (you) in the form of higher prices.

The idea behind “Cap and Trade” is to purposely increase the cost of energy that is produced using fossil fuels like natural gas, coal, or petroleum. Nearly 85% of electricity across the U.S. is generated using these sources of fuel. The price of everything you buy will go up, even food, because there will be a hidden national energy tax built into the price of everything.

One leading Democrat Senator told the Washington Post that, “This is the greatest revenue generating [read tax] proposal of our time.” It’s all about taking more money from everyday Americans so politicians can spend it on their favorite programs.

Estimates are that this bill will have a negligible effect on the global environment. Carbon emissions from U.S. competitors in China, India, and the rest of the developing world are exempt from these caps and they will continue to increase emissions at levels that far outstrip any reductions in the U.S.

This costly national energy tax will put American products at a competitive disadvantage and further erode our ability to compete with China, India, and the rest the developing world. The result will be the loss of at least millions of jobs, as more jobs move to countries that will not impose these caps on their citizens. It’s no wonder China has essentially endorsed this energy tax bill. With a national unemployment rate nearing 10%, it’s estimated that this tax will cost Americans another 2.5 million jobs.

I oppose this plan and will vote against it because it is not good for the American worker, small businesses, seniors on fixed incomes, or families struggling to pay their mortgages and other bills. Washington doesn’t need more of your money, it needs to control spending. Europe adopted a similar plan several years ago, and it forced jobs to leave Europe, caused electricity prices to skyrocket, and they have little to show for the costs. It’s all pain and no gain. Check out the non-partisan Tax Foundation’s energy tax calculator (www.taxfoundation.org/capandtrade) to figure out how much it may cost you.

Again, I am pleased that we are in agreement. Thank you again, David, for contacting me. I appreciate having the benefit of your views. It is an honor to serve you in the Congress. For more information on my work in Congress or to sign up to receive my E-newsletter, please visit my website, http://www.posey.house.gov/. If I may be of service to you in the future, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Beyond my natural inclination to prefer the second letter because it matches my views, it is a much better letter. I clearly outlines his objections, explains the legislation, points out the flaws, and doesn’t denigrate the AGW community. It points out that if you want to actually limit carbon, this bill doesn’t do it. It also points to external resources for confirming evidence.

I’m pretty happy with my freshman congressman, at the moment.

During the cap & tax debate I sent emails to all of my representative, including Bill Nelson.  Well BIll responded to me today.  Yes it is a form letter that lays out his position, but oh my God.  I don’t know where to begin.  Let me just show the whole thing to you:

Thank you for contacting me regarding cap-and-trade legislation.

I am interested in cap-and-trade programs because they would let the market, not the government, dictate how to lower harmful emissions. I believe that we have the technology and ability to meet the challenge of climate change in a way that will provide new economic opportunities and make us more competitive internationally while protecting consumers from high energy prices and breaking our dependence on oil.

Global warming threatens Florida’s fragile ecosystem and $56 billion tourism industry. Rising sea levels will encroach on Florida’s pristine beaches and harm coastal wetlands and the Everglades. Increased carbon dioxide and water temperatures will damage sensitive coral reefs and endanger Florida’s diverse marine species. A scientific study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded with 90 percent certainty that global warming is caused by the accumulation of man-made greenhouse gasses.

On June 26, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. The Senate is expected to consider legislation to address energy independence and climate change in the fall.

I will continue to work in the Senate to fight the effects of global warming. I appreciate your taking the time to share your thoughts with me, and I respect your views. Please feel free to regarding any additional issues of concern.

Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson

Holy crap, where do you start with this mess?

Rising sea levels will encroach on Florida’s beaches?  Even if they do actually rise like the alarmist say, how much beach would be lost by 9 inches?  Vertical rise from all Florida beaches is about 6 feet or more due to tides.

90% certainty global warming caused by man-made GHGs?  MM GHGs contribute to much less than 1% of GHGs.  The vast majority is contributed by water vapor.  Oh that whole water vapor thing is also a balancing mechanism affecting those sea levels he is so worried about.

IPCC consensus?  What consensus?

The scariest thing about this is that he believes it (or someone in his office is doing a damn good job of faking it).  My first reaction was to just trash this trash, but the more I think about it I think something needs to be done with this.

Any suggestions from our political experts on how to use this letter in a way to gain a politcal benefit?

Florida 02

Incumbent Status

Incumbent: Rep. Allen Boyd, D

First Elected: 1996 (6th term)

Last Elected: 2008 (61.9%)

Incumbent Status: Running for re-election

2008 Results

Allen Boyd (D) – 215,627 – 61.9%

Mark Mulligan (R) – 132,555 – 38.1%

Current Funding

Boyd (D): Current Funds – $188,512

Lawson (D): Unreported

Fisher (R): Unreported

McKain (Whig): Unreported (I’m not making that up)

District Statistics (2000 Census)

2006 Voter Registration: 55D/32R/13I

2006 Results: Unopposed

Population: 639,295

Under 18: 22.8%, Over 65: 12.0%

Married: 51.3%

Non-Hispanic White: 72%, Black: 22%, Hispanic: 3%, Asian: 1%

Foreign Born: 3.7%, Language other than English: 6.5%

Median Household Income: 34,718, Owner Occupied Housing: 68.4%, Income above $200k: 1.4

White Collar: 61.7%, Blue Collar: 20.6%, Services: 17.7%

Bachelor’s Degree: 24%, Graduate Education: 9.8%

Civilian Veterans: 75,599

Party Contact Info

In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-02 includes Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Taylor, Suwannee, Lafayette, and Dixie counties.

Bay County web site

Jackson County web site

Calhoun County No Website available

Gulf County No Website available

Franklin County No Website available

Liberty County No Website available

Gadsden County web site

Leon County web site

Wakulla County web site

Taylor County No Website available

Suwannee County No Website available

Lafayette County No Website available

Dixie County web site

Florida GOP web site

**State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations**

James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President

Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)

Florida TaxWatch

FreedomWorks – Florida

Analysis

I give the Republicans credit for at least running a candidate in 2008. It was a waste of time and money, but it showed some guts. This is a heavy majority Democrat district and outspent the Republican 20 to 1. This district includes both the state capitol and Florida State University, meaning both the public employees and academic employees are part of the electorate. Despite the heavy advantage in Democrat registration, the Cook Political Report rates this district R+1. This district DID vote for Bush in both 2000 (51-46) and 2004 (54-45). In 2008 that flipped to a 56-44 advantage to Obama, due exclusively to heavy turnout in Leon county alone (91,000 of Obama’s 158,000 votes), abetted by depressed Republican turn out over 2004 in the remaining counties. Note also that the black demographic of this district is also no different from FL-01, meaning that Obama did very well with whites in Leon County. The largest county is Leon, which includes Tallahassee. The second largest is Bay County which includes Panama City, and turned out for McCain 70-29. This is one of those districts that can be targeted with a good candidate. There are rumors that Boyd is considering running for Senate to take Martinez’s seat, which would leave this seat open. The demographics of the district are almost identical to FL-01, and the Democrat concentration is in a single (though highly populated) county (Leon). However, **ALL** of the other counties lean Republican, and their combined population does exceed that of Leon county. If looking for a strategy, then I would recommend finding ways to strengthen the Republican Party of Leon County and addressing the smaller counties, 7 of which have no website.

Since Boyd just voted for the Cap and Trade bill, this is a potential wedge issue that can be used against him. However, I wouldn’t hold my breath. There is a pretty strong belief in the Global Warming hoax in Florida. While north Florida is the lowest area of “concern” in the state, several polls still show a 29% “very concerned” response, with over 50% when including the “somewhat concerned” category. Additionally, Cap and Trade may be a job killer, but not in Leon County. This county has among the lowest unemployment in the state (around 5%, compared to 10% statewide). Mostly these people are state government employees.

The best chance of unseating Boyd is to get the counties other than Leon to rise up against him. These include the farming counties who will be hurt by rising fuel costs and the Panama City area that is hurting due to reduced tourism (people drive there from Alabama and Georgia). This is the strategy that the minority leader of the House, Al Lawson is using in the primary against Boyd. He is hitting Boyd hard for his vote on the stimulus and bailouts, calling him more interested in Wall Street than his district.

The biggest problem for the GOP is there don’t have a viable candidate. I was able to find no information at all on Fisher, and certainly no web site. This district can be won, especially in 2010 after a bruising Dem primary. But if the NRCC can’t recruit a strong candidate, this district will not change, despite the favorable conditions.

As many of you know, I usually don’t comment on current events, leaving it in the very capable hands of Moe, Warner, and the rest of you.  But I am fascinated by the underlying forces that shape those events, especially when they come together to illustrate a greater truth.

 A few days ago, Jonah Goldberg posted a piece of satire from the Onion:

WASHINGTON—More than a week after President Barack Obama’s cold-blooded killing of a local couple, members of the American news media admitted Tuesday that they were still trying to find the best angle for covering the gruesome crime.

 ”I know there’s a story in there somewhere,” said Newsweek editor Jon Meacham, referring to Obama’s home invasion and execution-style slaying of Jeff and Sue Finowicz on Apr. 8. “Right now though, it’s probably best to just sit back and wait for more information to come in. After all, the only thing we know for sure is that our president senselessly murdered two unsuspecting Americans without emotion or hesitation.”

 Added Meacham, “It’s not so cut and dried.”

 Since the killings took place, reporters across the country have struggled to come up with an appropriate take on the ruthless crime, with some wondering whether it warrants front-page coverage, and others questioning its relevance in a fast-changing media landscape.

 ”What exactly is the news hook here?” asked Rick Kaplan, executive producer of the CBS Evening News. “Is this an upbeat human-interest story about a ‘day in the life’ of a bloodthirsty president who likes to kill people? Or is it more of an examination of how Obama’s unusual upbringing in Hawaii helped to shape the way he would one day viciously butcher two helpless citizens in their own  home?”

 ”Or maybe the story is just that murder is cool now,” Kaplan continued. “I don’t know. There are a million different angles on this one.”

Personally, I found this to be hilarious (maybe I just have a sick sense of humor), because is so perfectly captures the media’s unwillingness to actually do any critical reporting on Obama.  While many of us have noticed the unwillingness of the likes of John Stewart to poke fun at Obama, they are now poking fun at the media and their unwillingness to actually behave like journalists.

This reminded me of a video I posted a few months back of Brent Bozell:

Brent has been predicting the old media’s demise for a long time now.  But he also predicts that it is going to happen sooner rather than later.  With his analysis in mind, consider the post that Michael Graham made (again h/t to Jonah) about the Boston Globe’s coverage of the tea parties.

When the Washington Post’s Howard Kurtz reported that the Boston Globe-Democrat hadn’t run a single story on the national “Boston Tea Party” movement (key word: Boston), I’ll admit I was surprised.  Their blatant political bias is obvious, and every rational reader knows their “news” coverage is driven by their politics.  But not one story?  From a journalistic standpoint, it’s utterly indefensible.

So I shouldn’t have been surprised when I picked up the BG-D this morning–the day after thousands of BOSTON-are citizens gathered at BOSTON Harbor for a BOSTON Tea Party to protest (in part) the taxpayer abuse by our BOSTON-based state government…and found a single local story in the BOSTON paper.  Buried on page A16 there was a small AP story with the dateline “Frankfort, KY.”

I guess the Boston Globe-Democrat staff just couldn’t resist a “KY” reference…

To add ignorance to incompetence, the AP story spreads the canard that our Tea Party was part of some national Republican effort.  They link it to FreedomWorks and the GOP–neither of whom had anything to do whatsoever with our event…though I’d be happy to send them the invoice for our expenses.

Here’s the Boston Globe-Democrat’s model for journalistic success:

1. Ignore a national story inspired by local Boston history for as long as possible;
2. Refuse to cover the story when it becomes local;
3. Misreport the story with a wire report from Kentucky;
4. Then wonder why you’re losing $1 million a week.

It is very easy to see a scenario where Boston will be without a local paper in 2010.  And the actions of their editorial board are helping to hasten their rush toward oblivion.  They have put their political ideology ahead of their paper’s interests and are surprised to find out that irrelevance is not a successful business model.

I’m not going to rehash the “reporting” of CNN’s Susan Roesgan, but I will point out that the Blogsphere coverage and views of the off camera altercation with the tea party attendees are approaching (if not surpassing) the actual CNN viewership of the incident in the first place.  Look at the CNN ratings during March 2009:

Through Wednesday, Fox was averaging 2.73 million prime-time viewers in March. MSNBC had 1.16 million and CNN had 1.14 million. The March ratings period ends Friday, and it’s doubtful CNN will be able to overcome MSNBC.

Given how badly Fox is destroying CNN, is it any wonder that Susan Roesgan would launch into an on-air attack against ordinary citizens laced with conspiracy theories about their competition?  Susan and the rest of the old media are working through shock as the underpinnings of their place in the world is shaken.  Remember the five stages of grief:

Denial and Isolation – At first, we tend to deny the loss has taken place, and may withdraw from our usual social contacts. This stage may last a few moments, or longer.

Anger – The grieving person may then be furious at the person who inflicted the hurt (even if she’s dead), or at the world, for letting it happen. He may be angry with himself for letting the event take place, even if, realistically, nothing could have stopped it.

Bargaining – Now the grieving person may make bargains with God, asking, “If I do this, will you take away the loss?”

Depression – The person feels numb, although anger and sadness may remain underneath.

Acceptance – This is when the anger, sadness and mourning have tapered off. The person simply accepts the reality of the loss.

The Boston Globe is in stage 1, Denial, while Susan Roesgan has progressed to stage 2, Anger.  I will be fascinated to see if they can get to acceptance during the coming months.

For the last few weeks, as I ride the express train to socialism we are all on, I’ve been thinking, what does it take to bring the electorate back to reality and get them to put adults back in charge of their government?  I have an idea on a way to attack the situation politically.

First an assumption.  I believe that the majority of voters, meaning the middle/moderates/independents, really don’t have a dog in the fight.  They vote out of habit, without really thinking through the consequences of their actions.  This means while they don’t consider values, morals, responsibility and liberty when casting their votes (like we wish they would), they also don’t think about social justice, global warming and torture at Gitmo either.  They cast their vote either through habit (our family has always voted Democrat) or no more thought than they do when voting for someone on American Idol.

This puts us at a disadvantage, since the Democrat party has managed to maintain a loyal following over the years, since FDR, while they have expanded their numbers among the victim class that does vote for expanded government intervention.  Obama’s real danger is that he will be like FDR in his ability to remain popular in the face of societal upheaval with the willing participation of the media (just like FDR enjoyed).  A whole new generation of voters will continue voting Democrat out of habit.

How can we fight this?

The genesis of my thought is the silliness in Spokane Washington of dishwasher detergent with phosphates that Erick posted about earlier.  I had read about this idiocy a few days ago.  To my mind, this situation is just begging for someone to run unapologetically against the environmental lobby.  I don’t mean the typical “Well I’m in favor of the environment just like you are, but I think this is a mistake” mealy mouthed crap we usually get from GOP candidates.  I mean full throated, unapologetic opposition by calling them insane lunatics that are trying to destroy our way of life.

The commercial practically writes itself:

“Hi, I’m Dave_in_Fla and I’m running for city council.  Let me show you something.

- Cut to a dishwasher full of dirty dishes

This is a stack of dishes that my 17 year old and her friends left for me to clean up, while they went to the movies.  This is a box of Spokane City Council approved phosphate free detergent that we legally must use.

- Holds up box of Trader Joes

Now I love Trader Joes chocolate covered raisins, but this stuff is awful.

- Show time elapse of dishwasher running, open dishwasher, pull out dirty dishes

- Cut to picture of me with hands in sink full of dishes, washing the dishes that just came out of the dishwasher

So do you want a city council that does the bidding of the environmental lobby?  Or would you rather have clean dishes?  Vote for me, and let’s bring sanity back to government”

To me, the best way to fight against the voter lethargy is to go completely against the grain.  Instead of negative advertising, mock the opponents in ads.  Instead of “messaging”, be irreverent and funny.  When Obama runs his 4 ads an hour in 2012, combat it with the following:

- Picture of a green field with horses running, soft music playing in the background

- Text at the bottom on the screen reads, “This break from the Obama commercials brought to you by Jindal/Palin 2012″

I believe that traditional methods aren’t going to be effective.  We can’t out “message” them.  We need to challenge their assertions directly in way that captures the attention of the disengaged voters.