Something lighter this morning… My first recollection of political awareness was during the 1968 election. I had just turned 8 years old, and was kind of paying attention, without understanding any of the issues. My parents made a point of not discussing politics around the house (to this day I don’t know my parent’s party registration), so I was left to form my own opinions. | Read More »
See, when my candidate kicks serious butt, I don’t feel the need to head over to liberal sites, pretend to be liberal or make a general fool of myself. I guess the tightening in the polls, combined with the debate last night has left them feeling … inadequate? They must not be so confident that Obama won, despite their Paulian assault on the online polls | Read More »
My Admin stopped into my office to ask a question about the debate: “I stopped watching last night, because neither of them would answer the questions, then kept slinging mud at each other. But could you explain this McCain healthcare proposal?” Chalk up another vote for McCain on Nov 4th. His plan vs. Obama’s connected with her. She has a 22 year old in college | Read More »
I’m reminded of watching the 5 stages of grief. The NRO folks are well past bargaining, and are now in the anger stage. Soon they will settle into acceptance. Oh look! We have more than a few of they same types here. Here is Andy McCarthy on last night’s debate: With due respect, I think tonight was a disaster for our side. I’m dumbfounded that | Read More »
This diary is going to attract a lot of trolls screaming about how Obama destroyed McCain tonight. And a lot of our posters and front pagers also think that this debate was “unhelpful” to McCain. Let’s dispense with the obvious. Obama looked and sounded better than McCain. He came across and polished in his diction and tone. If you didn’t listen to his words, you | Read More »
Jay Cost is my hero for understanding the actual dynamics of political science. He is particularly good with understanding (and explaining) the importance of the cost of information flow in a campaign, and how getting information to voters who don’t have “perfect information” is the key determiner of election success. Jay has just posted a typically excellent analysis of the current state of the race, | Read More »
Today is the first day of his polling track that includes all polling after the VP debate. 70 million people watched that debate, and the results are that Obama’s lead increased to 8 points? How does that make any sense in a sane universe? Giving the MSM spin, at best it can be called “Biden held his own”, which should have resulted in the tracking | Read More »
For the last few days, the comment section and member diaries are “getting stuck”. I can post, see my post in the thread and even see them when looking in my diary. But when I refresh the front page, these two sections don’t update, until maybe an hour later? I’m sure you probably know about it, but I figured I should mention it. I am | Read More »
While we have been having a week’s worth of self immolation over the bailout, and Obama has risen to +7 in the Rasmussen daily track, the thing that has most depressed me was the lack of trolls. They must have been feeling really good about the election, and had all retired to their mom’s basement to play Grand Theft Auto. But what do you know, | Read More »
The Yeahs are 74 The Nays are 25 McCain votes yes Obama votes yes
First a tiny bit of good news from Rasmussen, McCain’s slide in the polls has finally stopped, with Obama ahead 51% to 45%. This poll now reflects two days of polling after the the bailout lost on Monday. Now for the bad news, the economic mess hurt McCain badly. Obama now holds a 51% to 42% lead on the economic trust issue, the highest lead | Read More »
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the center cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at | Read More »
During the first debate of 2004, George Bush was universally declared the loser of the debate. He lost his cool, looked uncomfortable, and seemed to give off an air of “why do I need to be here with this wannabe?”. Let’s be honest, a lot of us on the right watched the televised version of the debate and cringed. We thought Bush had done “ok”, | Read More »
It is panic time in the right-wing blogsphere. McCain is tanking in the polls, the economic meltdown has given his campaign another body blow, he has resorted to a gimmick to get out of a debate where Obama was going to destroy him, the country hates this president and all Republicans and will punish them on November 4th. Even Ramesh Ponnuru, who was one of | Read More »
(h/t) to Geraghty at NRO for pointing this out. On the heels of my analysis of polling and their value, we have this poll from Pennsylvania showing Obama leading McCain 50% to 46% among likely voters. Whoa there Batman! That looks a lot like Rasmussen’s results, doesn’t it? As they say in the Hertz commercials, “Not exactly”. Their partisan breakdown for this poll is 53% | Read More »
Answer: They don’t Ok, for the ADD folks out there you can go back to reflexively hitting refresh, hoping to get past the 500 errors now (I kid, I kid!). For those of you who need this education again, lets talk about what polling is and what it isn’t. We’ve had a spate of polling data today that is causing interesting reactions among members (Obama | Read More »
Rasmussen and Fox jointly released a slew of state polls last night from battleground states. The results of these polls are: Florida: McCain 51%, Obama 46% Ohio: McCain 50%, Obama 46% Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, McCain 45% Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 48% Michigan: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
I have a long time friend, who is a lifetime Democrat. He and his wife are both San Francisco liberals suffering through living in Red State Florida. We normally don’t discuss politics, but it actually came up yesterday. His comment was that he was unsure who to vote for (are you kidding me?). He was thinking about McCain but was troubled by the Palin pick | Read More »
Forgive me for offering a completely wild guess about the current state of the presidential race. I tend to notice different threads of data and try to mesh them together into an analysis of how they interrelate to form a cohesive story. Here is my theory. The Obama campaign believes that it is losing
Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll is finally showing the McCain advantage that the other polls have been showing. As of today, McCain holds a 3 point advantage both with and without leaners included (49 to 46 with leaners). This gives me a lot more confidence in the state of the election, since Rasmussen was not matching the other polls before today. This is historically a small | Read More »
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