OOPS!!! Forgot to hit publish yesterday. Better late than never. Every four years, I hear the political pundits and talking heads yammer on about how Pennsylvania is a swing state and target of opportunity for the party not in power. And then every four years, the Democrat wins Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. In 2008, Obama took 17 Pennsylvania counties. His primary base of power was in | Read More »
For anyone who thought or believed that Massachusetts was suddenly showing signs of conservatism because Scott Brown won in 2010 or Barney Frank is retiring, you are wrong. Brown’s 2010 surprise victory was partly attributable to a recognition of his moderation, and ineptitude on the part of his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley. Brown will not have conditions favorable to him this time out. For example, | Read More »
There is a whole slate of races on the Indiana ballot this year. As regards the presidential election, Indiana barely gave the state to Obama in 2008- by less than 29,000 votes. In politics, that is not a difficult number to flip to the other side. And that is what will happen in Indiana this year. In 2004, Kerry won only four counties- LaPorte, Lake, | Read More »
At the beginning of this presidential campaign, the Obama team believed that Arizona would be in play for their side. However, that dream was soon tempered by reality and Romney should garner their 11 electoral votes. In 2008, McCain won by slightly less than 200,000 votes. Perhaps, the low percentage of the vote- 53%- gave the Democrats a false sense of hope, but this writer | Read More »
There is some interest in New Mexico this year if not at the presidential level, then certainly in the Senate race. Of all the southwestern states, New Mexico is perhaps the most blue. However, recent events, mainly the election of highly popular and visible Republican Governor Susanna Martinez, should give Republicans hope. This state will likely award its 5 electoral votes to Obama although nowhere | Read More »
Mitt Romney originally believed he had a chance in this state, but this writer just does not see it. The Obama message regarding the auto industry bailout- whether correct or not (this writer thinks not)- has resonated somewhat. The auto industry and the unions in Michigan still hold tremendous sway in the state. And despite the fact that Romney’s father was the Republican Governor here | Read More »
Without a doubt, the biggest news out of Maine was the announcement that Republican Senator Olympia Snowe was retiring at the end of her term leaving this an open seat race. More importantly, it is a Republican seat in a blue state- New England no less. Before discussing this race and its effect on the GOP strategy to win the Senate, Maine is a state | Read More »
Five House seats, an open Democratic Senate seat (technically, an independent), and a presidential election are on tap this year in Connecticut. As concerns the presidential vote, this was not always a Democratic state. However, the trend since Clinton’s reelection has certainly been in that direction. In 2008, Obama won with a little over 60% of the vote carrying the heavily populated Hartford and New | Read More »
Rhode Island is a solid blue state and should be again this year. In 2008, Obama took 62% of the vote here. In fact, looking back at past elections, even when the Republican won in this state, it was never by double digits after the 1956 election. Thus, one can safely say that Obama will take this state’s 4 electoral votes. Sheldon Whitehouse- the incumbent | Read More »
There are four races on the ballot this year: President, Senator, Governor and their lone House seat race. This should be an easy analysis entry. For President, Obama will take Vermont’s three electoral votes. In the Governor’s race, incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin is a liberal’s liberal. He has structured health care reform in Vermont to mirror the socialized model to the north in Canada. He | Read More »
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