Iowa is one of those smaller states that Obama needs to retain in 2012. Due to the census, they lost a House seat (and electoral vote) dropping to four seats. With approval ratings largely reflective of his national average and moving as it does, the state is considered a toss up, swing state at this point. However, given the Obama machine now in place in | Read More »
Besides the Presidential sweepstakes in Minnesota, there is also a Senate race and eight Congressional seats up for grabs. Throw in some redistricting drama and the general weirdness of the Minnesota voters and the state can be potentially perilous for the GOP in 2012. So much depends on the movement of district lines here and there and the entire dynamic can change. In addition, Minnesota | Read More »
The focus in South Dakota will be the lone congressional race. Republican Kristi Noem will seek reelection. In 2010, she defeated two A-list opponents to win the Republican nomination which made national party officials, anxious to break the perception that the GOP was the party of white men, to actively and seriously support her candidacy. And in the general election, she defeated Democratic incumbent Stephanie | Read More »
The 2012 elections in Nebraska looks to be a coup for the Republican Party. From the standpoint of Presidential politics, Obama stands little chance of winning the state. Nebraska has only five electoral votes and he will expend very little political capital or money attempting to win this state. But first, the Congressional races. Redistricting was passed early in the cycle after a Democratic filibuster | Read More »
There are no statewide races in Colorado in 2012. That does not mean that the state will not attract interest, attention and money on the Presidential, or even Congressional level. Colorado’s nine important electoral votes are up for grabs and this is a state Obama must retain in 2012. If he loses this state, it changes the electoral strategic dynamic. The most recent polling puts | Read More »
There is little drama in Oklahoma with no statewide races on the ballot. Perhaps one of the reddest of red states, it is certain that the eventual GOP nominee will take Oklahoma’s seven electoral votes. Instead, the interest will be on the Congressional races, especially the 2nd District. In the 1st, Republican John Sullivan, who has held the district since 2002, faces his biggest challenge | Read More »
The current Congressional delegation stands at 23-9 for the Republicans. Under the new maps drawn by the legislature, twelve of the 23 Republican districts would undergo some change with eight of those 12 undergoing a major change. Of those undergoing a major change, Joe Barton in the 6th, Kay Granger in the 12th, Ron Paul’s open seat in the 14th, Canseco’s seat in the 23rd, | Read More »
Texas gains four seats in the House bringing their total to 36 (and thus 4 electoral votes raising the total to 38). With approval ratings consistently well below the national average, Obama stands little to no chance of winning their 38 electoral votes. Additionally, some of these votes come at the expense of states that Obama carried in 2008: Ohio and New York (2 apiece), | Read More »
Just as Democrats see an opportunity in Arizona, especially in a vacant Senate seat, Republicans should see a greater chance in neighboring New Mexico. Most of the news revolves around the retirement of and replacement for Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman. For President, the state has been becoming increasingly blue with each successive election and 2012 should not be any different. This state will go for | Read More »
Arizona is ground zero in the immigration debate in this country. With the fate of their “controversial” S.B. 1070 and similar laws in other states safely in the hands of the Supreme Court, this topic will inevitably play a role in the Arizona political debate. A Court ruling either way just as the campaign season is heating up will make for some interesting discourse at | Read More »
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