The recently released RNC report of what went wrong in 2012 has been met with diverse criticisms and analysis almost in keeping with the number of times the word “diversity” is mentioned or intimated in the actual report. This is the underlying theme of the report- that the Republican Party is viewed as a group of stodgy old white men, dominated by voices from a | Read More »
In the previous entry, I noted that the main motivation behind proposals to either reform or eliminate the Electoral College, especially the most recent proposals, is predicated by the Liberal/Democratic assertion that George Bush stole the Presidency in 2000. Yet for all the disdain for the Court’s decision in Bush v. Gore, there is another recent Supreme Court decision that really, really just makes your | Read More »
In a series of articles leading up to Election Day, I analyzed the presidential and Senate races state-by-state. It concluded with a predicted Romney win with somewhere in the neighborhood of 280 electoral votes. For the Presidential vote, I use a system I devised based upon recent and historical trends in each state, properly weighted, polling data (again weighted), and other criteria then run that | Read More »
Ohio has been the most stubborn state for Mitt Romney to gain any traction in the polls. In a state heavily polled in October, Romney managed to lead in only three of them and tied Obama in another five polls. Since the end of September, Obama has consistently polled near or above the 50% level. While the state is not exactly enamored with Obama, Mitt | Read More »
In 2004, Bush took Florida by 381,000 votes and Obama took it in 2008 by 236,000 votes- a swing of over 617,000 votes. Romney has some work cut out for him in Florida. The bulk of the Obama victory came from six counties where that swing in votes was exceptionally high- Hillsboro, Pinellas, Osceola, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Orange. If Romney can win back Pinellas and | Read More »
Unlike North Carolina to the south, the situation for Romney in Virginia will be much more difficult. In North Carolina, he only has to overcome a 21,000 vote disadvantage from 2008. In Virginia, Obama won by 262,000 votes in 2008. Realizing that the margin of victory will be nowhere near that for him this time around, the swing in votes from 2004 to 2008 is | Read More »
When discussing North Carolina, there is only one important number- 21,000. That was Obama’s margin of victory in 2008. One cannot see him replicating anything near that performance this year. Obama’s approval ratings in the Tar Heel State are stubbornly in the mid 40s range while their economy is showing a slower-than-average rebound. The Democratic Party in the state is weakened and in disarray. In | Read More »
With each passing day, it appears that Barack Obama will be rendered a one-term President. His agenda, such that one exists, may not be the death of liberalism in this country, but it certainly will be death of his brand of liberalism which skirts the boundary with European-style socialism. After the concession speech and rally before a tired and losing battle-weary crowd, the Obama team | Read More »
In 2008, in heavy turnout, Obama won this state with close to 54% of the vote by about 213,000 votes. This is one state that Obama flipped to the Democratic side that year. Compared to the 2004 results, where the margin of victor came from, Obama managed to win 5 counties that Kerry failed to carry in 2004. Two of them- Ouray and Huerfano- are | Read More »
In 2008, voter turnout in Nevada for the general election was below the national average; in fact, it was one of the lowest in the nation. Generally, this due to voter apathy and/or a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate. However, turnout in 2008 race was better than that in 2004. Turnout in 2012 is not expected to be as high as 2008 and this | Read More »
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