The current Congressional delegation stands at 23-9 for the Republicans. Under the new maps drawn by the legislature, twelve of the 23 Republican districts would undergo some change with eight of those 12 undergoing a major change. Of those undergoing a major change, Joe Barton in the 6th, Kay Granger in the 12th, Ron Paul’s open seat in the 14th, Canseco’s seat in the 23rd, | Read More »
Texas gains four seats in the House bringing their total to 36 (and thus 4 electoral votes raising the total to 38). With approval ratings consistently well below the national average, Obama stands little to no chance of winning their 38 electoral votes. Additionally, some of these votes come at the expense of states that Obama carried in 2008: Ohio and New York (2 apiece), | Read More »
Just as Democrats see an opportunity in Arizona, especially in a vacant Senate seat, Republicans should see a greater chance in neighboring New Mexico. Most of the news revolves around the retirement of and replacement for Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman. For President, the state has been becoming increasingly blue with each successive election and 2012 should not be any different. This state will go for | Read More »
Arizona is ground zero in the immigration debate in this country. With the fate of their “controversial” S.B. 1070 and similar laws in other states safely in the hands of the Supreme Court, this topic will inevitably play a role in the Arizona political debate. A Court ruling either way just as the campaign season is heating up will make for some interesting discourse at | Read More »
Redistricting in California is simply a mess. As some left leaning publications have reported, the Democratic Party gamed the allegedly non-partisan redistricting commission while the inept California GOP fell asleep at the wheel and got taken to the cleaners. Perhaps this is a hard lesson learned for California Republicans, but one that may very well undercut the gains made in 2010 and hurt the GOP | Read More »
First things first. Before discussing the general election in November 2012, there is a special election to fill the term of David “Tigerboy” Wu in the 1st Congressional District. Many, usually those on the Left, have pointed to this race, like every other special election held thus far usually in response to a resignation over some sex-related scandal, a bellweather for the November elections. Of | Read More »
In Utah, besides the Presidential election, there are two statewide races: Governor and Senate. Given his popularity and the fact that Utah is staunchly conservative and decidedly red, there is little drama in the Governor’s race as incumbent Republican Guy Herbert should win easily. The only chance the Democrats have of winning is if Joseph Smith ran on their ticket. At the present time, there | Read More »
The 2012 elections in Montana will be closely watched and may determine the balance of power in the Senate. All three races are statewide in nature: Governor, at large House seat, and Senate. Starting with the at-large seat, current Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg is leaving his job to challenge Jon Tester for his Senate seat thus producing an open race. Thus far, the best Republican | Read More »
Why two states in one day? Two reasons: both are no-brainers and some states like California, Texas and Illinois might require a two day analysis. So, this will be a fairly quick entry that involves two Republican strongholds. In Idaho, only the two incumbent Congressmen are up for re-election. They are Raul Labrador (what? A Hispanic Republican?) and Mike Simpson. Redistricting has not greatly affected | Read More »
The political situation in Washington will be well-watched in 2012. Considered safely blue by most pundits, a large portion of the population lives in the Seattle/Tacoma area and Democrats hold a decided advantage in this region. Once out of the area, however, the population is less sparse, more conservative and more Republican. Still, Washington’s 12 electoral votes will go to Obama continuing a trend that | Read More »
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