ALABAMA: Jeff Sessions is up for reelection and should easily win as the Democrats will likely field just token opposition. PREDICTION: Safe Republican MISSISSIPPI: In neighboring Mississippi, Republican incumbent Thad Cochran is also up for reelection. As of this writing, he has not indicated whether he will run again. Given his age, he will most likely seek retirement. At least, that is what the Mississippi | Read More »
RHODE ISLAND: There are several interesting Senate races in the east this year, but Rhode Island is not one of them. Democratic incumbent Jack Reed should win easily. In reality, Sheldon Whitehouse was the weaker of the state’s two Senators entering their reelection efforts and he handily won in 2012. If Whitehouse could win as easily in 2012, then Reed’s chances are even greater in | Read More »
With most of the primary elections for down-ticket races all but over, it is time to take stock of the Senate races and possible control of the upper chamber. First, let’s dispense with some of the obvious races although they may change by the time November rolls around albeit the chances of that happening are quite low. For the Democratic Party, they will likely win | Read More »
In a previous article, I described the methodology used for the Presidential election. Unfortunately, applying that system to Senate and House races is futile. For the Senate, since there are two per state, it is difficult to get an accurate view of long and short term electoral trends even when one looks at the actual seat in play. Obviously, with House elections, redistricting every ten | Read More »
There is a tremendous battle looming in Indiana for the Senate seat currently held by Richard Lugar. No- it is not some right-of-center Democratic insurgent making his reelection a problem but the challenge comes from within the Republican Party in the name of State Treasurer Mourdock. In many posts, I have stated that, based upon the most recent polls, Lugar would have an easier task | Read More »
We are slightly more than six months away from the general election where we will decide who our next President will be and whether Republicans can take control of the Senate. The following analysis of the battle for the Senate is based on recent polling information which I then modify based on the trends and the reliability of the polling data. Obviously, some polling services | Read More »
Thirteen months out with no primaries, caucuses, or conventions or even set candidates and it would appear that, assuming the Republicans don’t shoot themselves in their feet in certain states, the Senate will fall to Republican control. Of course, it will not be filibuster-proof unless this is a repudiation of Democrats and Obama so deep that it essentially destroys the party for years. It will | Read More »
It is probably a foregone conclusion that Republicans should win the House this year. A perfect storm of a stagnant economy, a floundering President, and anti-incumbent fever has Democrats on the rope. Although many pundits are predicting a turnover of epic proportions, my analysis shows that we should hold on. Although the House will certainly flip, this is a double-edged sword. On the plus | Read More »
Since January, I have been following polling data from a variety of sources in key Senate races. Although the Republicans are on target to pick up 6-8 seats in the Senate, there are some trends that can be culled from these polls that indicate a path to success. And that trend will become somewhat obvious as you look at the numbers thus far. Two caveats | Read More »
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