(This is a long diatribe, but I would appreciate anyone that takes the time to read it and get feedback.)
One mistake I’m afraid too many Republicans are going to make is that the back-to-back defeats that were given to Republicans around the country was merely a result of Bush being unpopular, and that once he’s gone, we’ll be running the country once again.
The American people have rejected the Republican Party in its current form, and we can’t just go by the same play book and hope the Democrats screw up so bad as to put Republicans back in charge.
I think conservatism sells, but I think we need to recognize that America has changed substantially over the last 20 years, and culturally (in my view), not for the better. We seem to think if we continue to mimic Reagan’s agenda, we’ll keep winning landslide elections. Anytime a Republican loses, conservative activists seem to have a knee-jerk response of “if he ran like Reagan, he would have won.” A major part of Reagan’s platform was opposition to abortion and a desire to allow school prayer. These issues simply don’t sell right now in most parts of America outside the Bible Belt.
America is a much different place now culturally than it was in 1980. Can you imagine how ballot propositions banning gay marriage would have done in 1980-1988? It would have been passed by 90% of voters. Today, these ballot propositions are hard-fought contests. My guess is in 10 years, twice as many states will have legally sanctioned gay marriage, including California. My point isn’t about gay marriage (which I very much oppose), but what this trend is indicative of, that the “moral majority” of this country seems to be fading, and as Republicans, we need to figure out a way to be a competetive political party in the future for a more secular America.
I don’t think we can form a governing coalition if we have litmus tests about certain cultural issues, like abortion. Certain parts of the country are just not comprised of very many religious people, specifically the northeast, and the west coast. I don’t see this changing anytime soon. I’ve heard people make arguments that non-religious people can be socially conservative, but it’s exceedingly rare. Even states that are exceedingly conservative on social issues have rejected bans on abortion, like South Dakota’s recent ballot proposition. If you can’t effectively run a pro-life message in a place like South Dakota, what makes you think you can ever form a majority in the rest of the nation? It’s a dangerous gamble to bet on a more religious America in the future, I only see this country trending more and more in the opposite direction.
We have a decision to make, do we just allow large swaths of this country to be run by Democrats from here on out, or do we find areas of agreement within the Republican platform and run on those? I really don’t want to just give half the country (or more) to the Democrats because a few in our party threaten to leave. I think a strong national defense, lower taxes and fiscal responsibility for starters, can sell in these places. I don’t think candidates that emphasize “family values” can. I’d like to have a political party that can once again be competitive in places like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and even California. I think the Republican success between 2001-2005 (where we had large majorities in Congress and had the White House) was primarily because of national security concerns post-9/11, in spite of many Americans disagreeing with much of the social conservative views of the Republican Party. Had 9/11 not occurred, I think we’d be where we are right now (in the minority), only a lot sooner.
A good example of Republicans thinking this country was still as socially conservative as it once was, was their opposition to embryonic stem-cell research. I think this practice is immoral, but when 75% of the country is for something, and the Republican party looks like it’s stifling medical research to appease a small faction, it’s political suicide. Anecdotally, I’ve been amazed at how many “right-leaning” voters have been outraged at Republican opposition to this type of research, even Nancy Reagan spoke out against it. Thankfully, most Republicans have decided it’s not worth losing elections on this issue, and have moved on, especially since their opposition seems to have done nothing but fuel more money and research into the practice.
The only part of the country that still responds to the culturally conservative message of the Reagan coalition seems to be the Old South, and the rural Midwest. We cannot form a governing coalition with just these states, that much is obvious. I think we should continue to run candidates like this in those parts of the country, but adapt our message to other parts of the country.
To sum it up, I don’t think this country wants the left-wing socialism that Obama and Nancy Pelosi are selling. That being said, I also don’t think a majority of this country wants a Rick Santorum-type Republican Party. I think our party needs to look at moving into the direction of candidates like Rudy Giuliani, who have shown they can be both conservative and competitive in the bluest of states.
I really lament where America has gone on a lot of cultural issues, and I personally agree with most of the socially conservative wing of the party, but at the end of the day, I’m realistic. Politicians aren’t the right people to change the hearts of these people. I don’t think pro-life Republicans losing in deep-blue states are going to change anyone’s mind on that issue.
Democrats have done a good job of adapting to their audience, and for example, won’t run anti-gun type candidates in the South. At the end of the day, the liberals get most of what they want out of these “moderate” Democrats. I think we can get most of what we want out of Republicans that can moderate their stances on hot button social issues, like abortion.
I think it’s obvious we need to make changes in our party and waiting for people to turn on Obama because the nation is in shambles could put us in the wilderness for a long time.
I think we need to analyze why our Republican Presidential candidates no longer campaign in large states like New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois, etc. I think to just write off large areas like that because of cultural issues is suicide for a political party. I think a more Goldwater-type conservatism can sell in both the red and blue states, and I think that’s the direction this party needs to move in if we want to be a relevant coalition.
