« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

Charting a Path Forward

By: Daniel Horowitz (Diary)  |  December 23rd, 2011 at 09:59 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

If the traditional description of the political parties wasn’t evident enough before the payroll tax/UI kerfuffle, it certainly is now: Democrats are evil and Republicans are stupid.  Democrats are evil for insidiously driving up the deficit, perpetuating unemployment, lying about Social Security and passing short-term unworkable Social Security tax holidays for political gain.  Republicans are stupid for a) having Mitch McConnell as Senate Leader and b) coming back to fight the evilness… but then failing to fight it.  They should have outflanked the Democrats on the tax cut and waged a separate battle over Unemployment Insurance (UI).  Instead they begged Democrats to come to conference with them, a losing proposition from day one.

Undoubtedly, there is a lot of blame to go around, with the lion’s share going to Mitch McConnell.  However, the important thing is to forge a strategy going forward into next year.

While everyone is focused on the payroll tax part of the deal, Democrats are quietly getting what they wanted vis-à-vis the UI program.

We were all aghast with indignation last year when we found out that an unprecedented 99 weeks of UI was inserted into the deal that extended the Bush taxes.  We kicked ourselves for allowing that travesty to pass and promised never to let it happen again.  Unfortunately, GOP leaders waited until it was too late to formulate a coherent principled stance against the entire premise of extending UI welfare.  They made a compromise to extend the long-term benefits, but gradually reduce eligibility by 40 weeks.  And, by George, it would be paid for.

Well, now that we foolishly agreed to tie UI benefits to the payroll tax issue, the fate of the UI extension is inexorably tied to the fate of the payroll tax cut.  Consequently, we will get the full 99 weeks in perpetuity…and it won’t be paid for.  If we were like Democrats, who put political gain ahead of country, we might be cheering the ancillary fact that this deal will help perpetuate unemployment and hamper Obama’s reelection efforts.  Another ancillary benefit of this payroll tax brouhaha is that Democrats will have no leg to stand on when they try to let the Bush tax cuts expire.

Unfortunately, ancillary benefits are all we have from this deal.

You see, once Republicans agreed to cave on the two-month extension yesterday, there was no need for them to commit to a conference on a long-term deal, which isn’t even long-term.  They should have started out fresh next year by dealing with the three issues (payroll taxes, UI, and Doc fix) separately in the House, and then ship them off to the Senate.  They should have demanded real long-term solutions, by either outflanking Democrats with a permanent abolishment of the payroll tax or a demand that we tackle Social security reform.  Assuming that Republicans in the Senate would hold the line against Democrat proposals (that might be a big assumption with McConnell at the helm), the House would, once again, reclaim their superior leverage as the only body that could pass a bill.

Instead, they agreed to a conference with Democrats and many squishy Republicans.  The outcome is already a forgone conclusion.  Along with another ineffectual temporary payroll tax cut extension, they will permanently consummate 99 weeks of unemployment into the entitlement empire.  And of course, the super-long UI benefits will not be paid for, at least not in a meaningful way.

During his press conference today, Harry Reid said (after praising McConnell for his treachery) that he was choosing conferees who would fight for full UI extension and against any cuts to the federal workforce.  So there you have it.  And one more thing – that conference report will be impervious to amendments, once again forcing conservatives into an up-or-down vote on two competing interests; a tax cut and permanent entitlement spending.  So either Democrats will get everything they want or we will be forced to play defense in blocking it.  What are we going to do next: tie a tax cut vote to legalizing gay marriage?

We look back at this year and forlornly recall all of the legislative failures; all of the lost opportunities.  It is clear that Republicans need to do some soul searching during the recess and decide whether they want to fight for limited government or not.  If they desire to fight on principle, then they should do so consistently, articulately, and coherently.  If they feel that – with control of just one house – they are impotent and helpless, they should stop setting themselves up for battles they are unwilling to win decisively.

This verse from Kings comes to mind: “And Elijah came unto all the people, and said, How long halt ye between two opinions? if the LORD [be] God, follow him: but if Baal, [then] follow him.”

Tags: , , ,

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • ghostship

    As much as the GOP leadership likes to cave on everything I think we need a new mascot to represent the Party under their leadership.

    I think a troll would be a good replacement. According to mythology It generally lives underground and is as dumb as a rock. That seems to fit McConnell and Boehner to a T.

    • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

      I was thinking more like one of those gollum-like creatures from Lord of the Rings, talking about “my precious office in Washington.”

      • ghostship

        Hobbits needed to go to Washington and dropkick McConnell and Boehner “precious offices” into the fires of Mt Doom.

        Requres:

        An actual will to cut spending.

        An actual will to shrink the size of government

        Backbone

        Send all applications to your local Tea Party.

        • http://edgeinducedcohesion.wordpress.com nathanalbright

          …I tend to think of myself as a little elfin myself, though maybe as cranky as a dwarf.

  • carolina

    that Boehner & McConnel have ‘forced’ Reid to agree to. There are very specific rules that apply. The House Bill reduces UI to 79, then 59 weeks. There will be compromises. We shall see….

  • carolina

    that Boehner & McConnel have ‘forced’ Reid to agree to. There are very specific rules that apply. The House Bill reduces UI to 79, then 59 weeks. There will be compromises. We shall see….

    • heraklios

      McConnell and Boehner will cave again, and because it concedes the continuation of the payroll tax holiday gimmick and UI extensions for yet another year. Our kids and grandkids will be paying interest on the additional $100 billion we are borrowing for these “temporary” measures for the rest of their lives.

    • dukeroyal

      They have proven, time and time again, that they will allow themselves to be outflanked and defeated at evey turn and will willingly help Reid do it to them.

  • http://www.doctor-bob.biz rsklaroff

    …on regarding events of the past week…and year:

    “Watch for the TEA [Taxed Enough Already] Party Movement activists to transmute dismay with a yearlong failure to achieve meaningful budgetary cuts…into the POTUS-GOP sweepstakes.”

    http://dyn.politico.com/members/forums/thread.cfm?catid=7&subcatid=41&threadid=6277037&start=1&currentPage=1

    In prior postings, I posited that “Establishment” Mitt contests “TPM” Perry.

    Fundamental forces are at-play, dealing with such concerns as the acquiescence of RINO’s [including the Bushies, as again evidenced yesterday] and the populism inherent in efforts to dismantle-D.C.

    Sometimes, a reflex-feeling yields a judgment that withstands brutal attack. Here, agree/disagree with specific policies promulgated by Perry, most everyone in the TPM must accept his forthrightness [read: "lack of flip-flops"] and the depth of his convictions which inform his politics. No one else conveys this pervasive message, which both subsumes “social issues” and targets domestic/foreign policies.

    Rather than awaiting accommodation by TPM-activists to the McConnell’s of the world, we should eagerly encourage the Rockefeller-Republicans to allow the RR-inspired GOP to reignite America’s innate Patriotism and our traditional stick-to-it-iveness and can-do optimism.

  • txvoice

    What is it that makes GOP leadership always seem like lost puppies? There seems to be no overall strategy, linking Senate and House GOP. And, with the House being under GOP control, I’d think Sen. GOP would be mindful and seek to support the only lever of power they have. Instead, it seems there is constant pulling the rug out, back stabbing, one-up manship, and other Machiavellian acts.

    The GOP is going to get voted out with the leadership they have – plain and simple. Boehner out – a new, fiscally tough, political fighter in. McConnell out. Mike Lee or John Cornyn in. Either change or you’re part of the problem. But I won’t support any of you if something like this happens again. I’d just as soon let Dems drive the truck in the ditch, then find a team that will pick up the pieces and start over. This pusillanimous political theater has to stop.

    • dukeroyal

      There is no argument that Boehner or McConnell can make that will get people on board for them.

    • writescribe

      if Boehner lost his speakership. I have no love for the guy, but I think a lot of people posting comments here are not giving him enough credit. You don’t think he’s already cut deals and/or made plans to ensure his political survival?

      Daniel Horowitz’s post makes a lot of good points. However, I’m wondering if anyone has heard rumors or thoughts that maybe one of the Tea Party members was going to block the unanimous consent earlier today. Look, I know that would have been painting a big target on one’s forehead, but would that have been the ultimate gesture of principle for the Tea Party? Wouldn’t something like that have shown that, even in the face of certain defeat, the Tea Party is willing to stand up for what it believes in to save this country?

      Easy for me to say, I know…still, the room was eerily silent. *sigh*

    • geoph

      Just imagining all those tears he’d shed being kicked out….they probably still wouldn’t wash the stench of this year under his leadership away.

      May God help us and forgive us, for we lost the leverage to kick him out.
      We are in for another 12 looooooooooooong months of Boehner.

      Win or lose come November, I hope we learned a lesson with these leaders – but I fear not looking at the Romney campaign.

      • txvoice

        I know I posted to vote them both out, and I do really appreciate what many of the DC pundits write about McConnell’s political skills and Boehner’s ability to run that herd of cats we call GOP House members. It’s not easy – no doubt.

        I’d be willing to give them both a break if I saw one thing they’d win at. I don’t consider extension of the Bush tax cuts a win – not when they had to agree to everything else and then revisit early in 2012. I guess the debt ceiling is somewhat a victory as it got “cuts to spending” on the table. But after the entire 535 members got to look over the thing – THEY punted by having the absurdly idiotic “super” committee then got outflanked into agreeing to massive cuts in defense on a one-for-one basis with cuts in spending elsehere. And now they’re looking at tax cuts – not just any cuts, but cuts to the primary funding mechanism Social Security has. And the GOP let this go by without absoulutely pillorying the Dems with the fact they were hurting Granny and stealing from her retirement to help them get re-elected. Nothing! Nothing!

        Again, I respect what they’ve done. But this is a new battle, a new army, a new set of objectives. And to win it we need new generals. Let’s do this right, and move on the offensive as we go into November.

  • hunter

    Conservatism is losing. It is being rolled back. The amazing grass roots movement- the Tea Party- is being denigrated and framed as a bunch of kooks or worse.We are unable to frame a coherent argument in the public square about any of the issues we care about. Our leaders are consistently caught flat-footed, on the defense, responding to the proven failures and deceivers in media and the dnc.
    We need to ask “Why?” And we need to get to an answer and a solution NOW. We do not need cute snarky parodies of Obama. we do not ned to tell ourselves we are winning on issues while we watch failure and corruption set the agenda from the WH and in the media. If we do not start this now we will see an Obama second term and a democratic House and Senate after November.
    this cave-in by republicans only happened because of an inarticulate badly thought out, poorly executed effort by republicans and Conservaitves.
    Thirty years after regan, the US debt, deficit and budget are all up faster than any other area of the economy, American strategic and financial position is precarious and Americans are rapidly becoming no different from Europeans- dependent on govt. subsidy, secularized, and with deteriorating work ethic and hunger for liberty.
    Blaming the NYT will not get us anywhere. An agenda that can be executed effectively at the voting booth needs to be created and soon. time is wsting.

    • renl57

      Because the Tea Party and their supporters here on RS keep ignoring what every poll says is foremost on voters’ minds: Jobs and restoring full employment.

      Now if the GOP tied any of these Dem proposals to their own proposals to provide jobs (like the Keystone XL approval), then they could argue that unemployment insurance (UI) will be phased out as jobs are phased in.

      But to tell Americans who are unemployed or have loved ones who are unemployed that their UI benefits will be cut off even if they can’t find work, just sounds pretty hard-hearted. Especially as Christmas approaches.

      There’s an argument to be made that cutting Government bureaucracy and regulation will also help stimulate private sector jobs. But that’s not even the Tea Party’s argument.

      UI should not be extended for any fixed amount of time. Rather, UI should be extended as long as the unemployment rate remains above 7%. Whether the unemployment rate drops below 7% this year or 5 years from now, that’s when UI should no longer be extended.

      • bobguzzardi

        Extending UI indefinitely without regard to cost or consequences solely because it seems “mean spirited” seems like feel good policy.

        Forcing people who work save and invest to pay people who don’t may not be most productive policy. Those who don’t work, the tax takers, from corporate welfare to inner city welfare, are not conservative and don’t vote Republican anyway. There is a reason that Democrats are successful; they pander to the unproductive.

        There is a place for social safety net but we have gone far beyond that and we are going bankrupt. The Titanic did sink.

      • geoph

        Questions framed by a group with an agenda to a target issue is hardly preferable to the sweeping victories of 2010.

        If memory serves, “jobs” have been the promised and broken/ignored pledge since the stimulus. It is still the control of spending and the limiting of government that will lead to job creation.

        Btw, what is the TParty position if not the fiscal crisis our nation is facing, and I couldn’t infer you plan from what you posted?

    • writescribe

      succinct, articulate and hit the nail on the head. It seems like there is a lot of anger on the Right, justifiably so. Anger can be good if it is the basis of passion to support a cause/idea/movement.

      However, the anger I see now is more indiscriminate, all-encompassing, everything-be-damned kind of rage. It is counterproductive to the thought-out, planned agenda that you correctly identify as necessary to navigate the political landscape. So often I read here on RS (and other forums) of people bashing the President for using a teleprompter or calling Paul Krugman an idiot. That;’s fine but it doesn’t get us anywhere except maybe a high-five from the person next to you who is putting exactly the same amount of thought into the necessary hard work – that is to say, zero.

      Yes, conservatism is losing, but not just because outside forces are countering it. In my very humble opinion, we are also doing a disservice to the cause we profess to believe by living in our own little, self-congratulatory worlds while oblivious to the fights that need to be waged and the terms on which they are fought.

    • azrally

      It’s hard to say Conservatism is being rolled back, as it has hardly ever been considered to be rolling. . .When you think of Krystol and Buckley really starting the movement, it was an intellectual exercise and reaction to the liberal, and yes, Communist steamrolling that was evident world wide for the first half of the 20th century. Goldwater signed on, “wrote the book” and was demolished at the polls. Reagan was “discovered” in that election cycle, and took four more before he was elected. Gingrich was a “foot soldier” in the Reagan revolution and and took four cycles to transform the House with “The Contract”. Since then we have had nothing in the way of Conservative action nationally, unless you consider “Compassionate Conservatism” to be a victorious example. There has been a new “fit” starting with the Tea Party movement that may ignite a true change in “Republican” voting, but I don’t know about it creating Conservative governance. Especially in today’s “information” society, Conservatism is easy to make into the “bad guy”. It doesn’t take much intellectual ability to be for the “progressive” or “liberal” platforms, just be able to spin the feel good aspects of spending “Government” funds to “help” the people. Easy to do in sound bites and catch phrases. But on the contrary, Conservatism requires one to think through the philosophy, and the sound bites don’t seem to catch on (remember “It’s not the Government’s money in the first place!” or the current “We don’t have a revenue problem, it’s a spending problem”). Not so catchy are they? Unfortunately this ease of creating a popular message has caused the liberal agenda to dramatically expand government and regulation since the 1930′s, and allows the activist Judiciary (it’s only a woman’s choice after all. . . ). We have a rough road ahead of us, not suitable for “rolling” at this time, that will require individuals to talk to neighbors and friends, get involved in the schools, really work with our legislatures and start smoothing a path where Conservatism can be taught, understood and lived, before any “rolling” will be seen.

  • oh2believe

    is difficult to visualize when we are being dragged around by the nose by 1) Democrat and even some Republican loons in the Senate, 2) The Socialist scheme-embracing White House, 3) our own fine collection of “What Not to Do” Republican leadership nitwits in the House. Far too many people have even now failed to realize that the battle for America’s Future is far from over. We were once told to embrace bold colors and forego pale pastels. We embraced it and held it dear. We achieved for a time the accomplishment of great things and gave fertile ground to new ideas, hopes and dreams. Alas we got comfortable in the beginings of our success and forgot the cost and resposibilities of those successes.

    Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other.
    Abraham Lincoln

  • oh2believe

    is difficult to visualize when we are being dragged around by the nose by 1) Democrat and even some Republican loons in the Senate, 2) The Socialist scheme-embracing White House, 3) our own fine collection of “What Not to Do” Republican leadership nitwits in the House. Far too many people have even now failed to realize that the battle for America’s Future is far from over. We were once told to embrace bold colors and forego pale pastels. We embraced it and held it dear. We achieved for a time the accomplishment of great things and gave fertile ground to new ideas, hopes and dreams. Alas we got comfortable in the beginings of our success and forgot the cost and resposibilities of those successes.

    Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other.
    Abraham Lincoln

  • Spartan4Life

    I have been pointing this out for thirty years. About every tenth year I think maybe they finally figured it out. I felt that way in 2010. Now I am back in the doldrums again.

    The Republican argument seems to be, ‘We think Medicare, SS, Medicaid, and UI are great things, we just want to give you less of them.” That is a political loser. It basically allows the other party to sit on the side and watch while you punch yourself in the face. Until you argue that the Entitlement Society is fundamentally flawed and that these programs don’t need to be “fixed” and that they need to be replaced, you are going to continue to allow guys like Chuck Schumer to roll you.

    The only way for the Conservative movement to ultimately WTF(win the future) is to propose something that is better. Like keeping more of your own money, for example. My kids are 24, 18, and 17 and would gladly opt out of SS for a system which allowed them to keep and save their own money. Where are the serious proposals on this? How about more control over your own healthcare? Everyone knows we are heading for a premium support replacement for Medicare, let’s just call it Futurecare and pass it.

    As long as the Opposition Party, which is what the GOP is right now, continues to play on Entitlement turf, we will continue to look like the party of Scrooge. We need to propose and implement an opportunity society where everyone gets lifted up.

    • ghostship

      Right now all the GOP does is argue that can manage the Progessive’s vision of their utopia better than they can.

      The GOP no longer seriously tries to cut spending but instead tries to control the rate of growth. It no longer tries to reduce the size of government but only argues in favor of managing it more efficiently. The GOP has come to accept the New Deal, the Great Society, Feminism, and the Progressives vision of the role of government as permanent parts of America so it no longer challenges the principles on which they were based.

      However, those principles MUST be challenged if their to be any hope of restoring this nation to the ideals upon which this country was founded upon. Too many Americans depend upon the government to care for them in old age, sickness, loss of job, and etc. In the name of compassion these programs have introduced a moral rot in the American spirit. Man cannot be free and dependent at the same time.

      We need to become a party of principles. Eventually the failure of the Progressives vision will no longer be able to be ignored and without a clear philosophical alternative for the people to turn to when that day comes I fear what the people might choose in its stead. If history is any guide what usually follows democracy is dictatorship.

    • docaja

      is here to stay. Many of us seem to forget that we in this country tried letting people “keep and save their own money” for 160 years. Social Security came about to address the failure of this approach. Why not begin to seek the implementation of market-based policies in areas where they actually work?

      • ghostship

        One cannot be free and at the same time believe one is entitled to have the government take care of you.

        The used to be a nation that believed a man was responsible for taking care of himself. If he did need help he turned to the charity of family, friends, or the church and such a man knew that it was done as an act of charity. However, now man expects the government to provided instead of asking for charity from his fellow man and that it is his right to make such a demand. No longer does he ask for ones help but demands it as a right. Is it any wonder that we have become a nation that has produced such an entitlement mentality such as exemplified by the OWS losers?

        By the way Social Security is as Rick Perry called it a ponzi scheme. Their is absolutely no way the government can come up with enough money to pay the baby boomers their SS checks short of just outright printing the money. In which case the boomer will get their checks but they won’t be able to buy so much as a pack of gum with it.

        We need to argue against the principles of the Left instead of arguing how to better manage the Left’s vision of utopia.

        • Spartan4Life

          Well said.

  • theericker

    They raise the issue (1 year vs. 2 months), talk a big game about holding firm, develop zero strategy in making their case (easily communicated and understood talking points, etc.), do even less to promote their case, and then fold at the end of the day like everyone knew they would from the beginning. Why get the black eye over this if you are always going to do the predicted outcome? Instead of just caving, they caved and got bad publicity. Not only that, he further cemented his caver reputation causing the demoncrats to more of this BS going forward. He did this on every issue, including the larger ones, so why would the dems treat him any different on this relatively minor battle. The republican leadership has been absolutely worthless this whole year and squandered a golden opportunity because they are afraid to confront the media and president.

    Look at Trump, he took the birther issue from a marginalized kook to mainstream issue, compelling Maobama to show his certificate, in about a month. Boehner could even make his justifiable case of cutting $100 billion from a $3400 billion budget Obama increased by $800 billion in a zero inflation budget. Again no messaging, no strategy, and fighting losing battles. If he had a line in the sand he should have prepared to defend it ahead of time instead of buckling under pressure at the 11′th hour.

    We would be better off picking him and the other top 5 GOP off in the primary, general election if needed. In the scheme of things, 5 or 6 house seats temporarily in democrat hands is not a big deal and hopefully getting competent leadership downstream in the rank and file may be worth it. It seems pretty hard to move these guys out of leadership positions once they have them as long as they have office.

    • dukeroyal

      Boehner covets none of these things.

  • http://www.FranBaker.com frankieb

    I’m so ticked off at the Rs for caving. Why isn’t there someone – a Congress(wo)man, a Senator, a presidential candidate … SOMEone – standing firm on this ship-sinking payroll tax cut? The Ds, the WH specifically, gather a bunch of whiners who want “their” $40 a week saved, and McConnell and Boehner melt like the wicked witch! I fear we’re looking at a major defeat in 2012 if someone doesn’t stand up and explain to the voters – not once, but over and over – why none of what BOzo is doing makes fiscal sense.

    • dukeroyal

      All they had to do was pass a clean one year extension of the payroll tax and would have put the Democrats in the losing position. They didn’t do that because they would have to had a strategy to win rather than one that simply involved them doing what Reid wanted. We know what one they picked, again.

    • dukeroyal

      All they had to do was pass a clean one year extension of the payroll tax and would have put the Democrats in the losing position. They didn’t do that because they would have to had a strategy to win rather than one that simply involved them doing what Reid wanted. We know what one they picked, again.

    • uselogic

      it was $40 every two weeks. The WH lied again. The media sucked MaObama’s thumb and the Manchurian GOP leadership rolled over. Again.

    • uselogic

      it was $40 every two weeks. The WH lied again. The media sucked MaObama’s thumb and the Manchurian GOP leadership rolled over. Again.

  • ss396

    They should have started out fresh next year by dealing with the three issues (payroll taxes, UI, and Doc fix) separately in the House, and then ship them off to the Senate…snip…the House would, once again, reclaim their superior leverage as the only body that could pass a bill.

    Isn’t the the story of 2011 – that only the House has been able to actually pass anything? And still the GOP is unable to gain any political advantage from that. Is it messaging? Is it a ‘go along to get along’ strategy? Is it a lack of commitment? Is it a lack of command? Is it ‘squishy’ ideology? And this is in the face of the Senate not doing any budget activity for over two years.

    I am really at a loss here as to why the House has been unable to gain any political advantage for being the only body producing legislative activity.

  • thirstyboots

    The rebelion against Boehner in the republican ranks was the reason for this disastrous debacle. As Krauthammer wrote, they set their own trap.

    Time for those guys to stop listening to amateurs, it’s been almost 2 years. The idea that the House republicans should “fight it” is ridiculous and idiotic. Some people are way too over-emotional to make political analysis. Their tactics and antics – fight! hold the line! I’m so mad! look at how principle and angry I am! – would turn the GOP into a perpetual 30% party and America into a socialist country.

    • boonerdan

      “Stupid is as stupid does.”

      The GOP needs no help in making themselves a perpetual 30% party. They are doing that on their own.

      Either Boehner and McConnell are stupid or they are complicit. Either way, they need to go. If you don’t see that, then it’s no wonder Obama was elected and no wonder he will be reelected.

  • bobguzzardi

    paragraph one is a gem.