Will McCain announce before the Olympics? Before Obama does? Who will it be? Who should it be?
Here is your VP Speculation Thread.
Let's start with some data from Intrade, a futures market. As of Saturday morning, the odds of each candidate is listed below:
Romney 39
Pawlenty 29
Palin 15
Portman 12
Crist 10
Thune 10
Ridge 10
Everyone else is in single digits. Looking at the recent movement
in these markets, I would speculate that the above 7 are being (or
have been) actively vetted. Most are at or near their highest
probability this year. And other names have dropped notably,
including Jindal, Kasich, Cantor, Lieberman and Fiorina.
More grist for the mill.
Novak argues that Romney would add value for several reasons,
but most notably because some
polls show him helping significantly in MI.
On the other hand, Romney hurts McCain in most states and nationally. Importantly, Romney never had great appeal to working class voters; he won upper class professionals in most states but never connected with the blue collar workers who are the likely swing voters in PA, OH, MI, MN, and IN. In fact, while his role as a Wall Street man may help him make economic policy decisions; it is not going to help on the campaign trail with those who want someone to feel their pain at the pump.
Other Redstaters have made more arguments for Romney including fundraising ability, no October surprises, and a dubious claim that he reassures conservatives.
OTHER TOP CHOICES ANALYZED BELOW
With Romney as the current favorite, most MSM pontifications have focused on him. However, Pawlenty actually has the background that might play well with the groups who look to be the determining factors in November.
His working class background has helped him win in MN as the GOP got smacked upside the forehead in 2006. He coined the term "Sam's Club Republicans" to describe the groups that he connects with well. Those voters in the upper midwest (Pawlenty's region) are the ones who hold the keys to the largest swing states: PA, MI, and OH.
Pawlenty has some things in common with Romney: no known personal issues, clean image, young but not boyish, and acceptable to the right and the middle of the party. Neither would make conservatives cheer, but neither would lead to large defections.
Finally, the third member of the A list is Palin. She would make conservatives jump for joy. She would be the highest ranking pro-life female in history if elected (currently only 1 or 2 of the 16 female Senators are pro-life). She booted out an establishment, corrupt GOP GOV which lends credence to her Reformer Republican status. Along with Jindal, DeMint, Coburn, McCain, and Sanford, Palin embodies a new spirit of anti-earmark, anti-corrupt, anti-business as usual. It's this background that has (probably) landed her on the short list. And being a female in a country that still has not elected a lady to the VP or Presidential positions surely does not hurt.
But she has her drawbacks. She is the least known of the A listers. She is the least known by McCain; Pawlenty has been a long time loyal ally and Romney has campaigned with McCain often this summer. Alaska is not on the radar of most news organizations much less the general public. And she has been in office for about 18 months without too many Earth shattering policies enacted. She's closer to a blank slate than other candidates.
If Palin is chosen, the only major gripe would be that she was a gender-affirmative action pick. But no major parts of the party would be upset and unless she has unknown skeletons in her closet, she is also a low risk choice.
Your thoughts?
I have it on good authority...
Leon H. Wolf July 26th, 2008 at 10:34 a.m. CDT (link)
That McCain is going to pass on all these losers and go with Don Carcieri. He will make this announcement tomorrow on MTP.
They're illusions, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money.
I'm Not Buying (n/t)
IJB July 26th, 2008 at 10:40 a.m. CDT (link)
it's way too early, don't you think so?
Cheetah772 July 26th, 2008 at 10:46 a.m. CDT (link)
Besides, the only thing I know of Carcieri is that he's the Governor of Rhode Island. I know that he's been at odds with a Democratic state legislature, but I'm not sure what his strengths would be if he were to be McCain's running mate.
Could you elaborate more on who Carcieri is, and what are his strengths and weaknesses (if any)? Thanks.
Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
I'd love it to be Thune
Wubbies World July 26th, 2008 at 10:49 a.m. CDT (link)
It would finally tip the scales for me to make me a very active McCain fan because I love Thune.
However, I am realistic enough to know Thune won't be the guy. However, Obama scares me enough to still make me actively support McCain. The steaks are way too high not too!
Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired): A Proud and Fanatical Hockey Mom Fan - Go Sara Go!!!)
Whoops.
Leon H. Wolf July 26th, 2008 at 11:37 a.m. CDT (link)
For some inexplicable reason, my comment did not include my snarky HTML tag... it was supposed to say:
/Robert Novak
They're illusions, Michael. A trick is something a whore does for money.
What about fans of Mitt?
RedFox84 July 26th, 2008 at 3:16 p.m. CDT (link)
What about the good authority of the fans of Mitt Romney? The fans of Mitt Romney said Mitt Romney was going to be selected for VP this week!
Here's another question
redneck_hippie July 26th, 2008 at 10:44 a.m. CDT (link)
If Palin should happen to be McCain's choice... And if McCain should happen to win... What would a Palin-Clinton matchup look like in 4 or 8 years? Mere speculation or long range dreaming? Do we really want a gargantuan referendum on life?
I like Romney, Pawlenty and Palin. I only wish the top of the ticket had been more conservative and the Veep the moderate concession to please the great unwashed. Oh well, I'll just stroll back over to the world of reality now.
Given your comments, I think Pawlenty is the most likely choice. And I'm fine with that. We need to be smarter and get a line of succession planned. I believe McCain would help himself most by emphasizing this.
The free exchange of ideas inevitably yields both heat and light.
What would it look like? Skirt vs
gamecock July 26th, 2008 at 11:08 a.m. CDT (link)
Pantsuit
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You are correct sir! n/t
redneck_hippie July 26th, 2008 at 11:48 a.m. CDT (link)
I don't know whether to take this personally, but I see this on my Preview Screen:
"There were errors in your submission.
Errors:
o body"
Should I be insulted?
The free exchange of ideas inevitably yields both heat and light.
No you just tried to post without putting anything in the body of the comment (nt)
Neil Stevens July 26th, 2008 at 11:50 a.m. CDT (link)
HTML Help for Red Staters
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Pawlenty Effect
WilliamPennybanks July 28th, 2008 at 12:32 p.m. CDT (link)
I was considering the veepstakes and many of the points brought up here. Gov Pawlenty seems like a good guy, right on the issues, but What does he bring to the ticket? Is Minnesota really in play? Not according to Rasmussen. Could a McCain-Pawlenty ticket give some gopher-state coattails to Norm Coleman in his very tough senate race?
The only choice for VP is NEWT
Sanjong_Thapa July 26th, 2008 at 10:45 a.m. CDT (link)
Why isn't anyone else talking about Newt for McCain's VP?
Didn't Newt come up with 'Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less'?
Mainly because
Adam C July 26th, 2008 at 11:03 a.m. CDT (link)
Newt's favorability ratings are upside down and pretty bad.
He's less popular than Clinton, Gore, H. Clinton, and any other major R possibility.
Oh and he left his wife while she was in the hospital with cancer to get together with another lady. That doesn't help either.
He's a bright guy, but his days in elected office are over.
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All true Adam. But Newt would make a
mbecker908 July 26th, 2008 at 12:23 p.m. CDT (link)
heck of a Chief of Staff.
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Agreed
Adam C July 26th, 2008 at 1:22 p.m. CDT (link)
And Romney would make a fantastic RNC Chair.
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And how!
Brian Simpson July 26th, 2008 at 1:52 p.m. CDT (link)
That really is the best position for Mitt. His skills match up perfectly there. Realistically, that's why I see him stepping up so much for McCain. He's gunning for RNC.
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You have to be kidding.
Flagstaff July 26th, 2008 at 11:24 p.m. CDT (link)
While I agree that he'd do a great job there, and he might accept it, there's no way he's aiming for it.
It puts him at the same level as Terry McAuliff, which is definitely far below Presidential.
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Pluto, the Ninth Planet - Forever!
Hah! Newt has a big problem.
Flagstaff July 26th, 2008 at 11:42 p.m. CDT (link)
It's called "Newt." He thinks he's a "statesman" now that he's out of office, and he sees nothing wrong with reaching even farther across the aisle than McCain does.
Newt would see himself as the power of the throne, not behind it.
Newt would be to McCain as Hillary would be to Obama.
That would be an office in disarray. Hah! again.
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Pluto, the Ninth Planet - Forever!
Kos Fears Cantor for VP
Ashbrook July 26th, 2008 at 10:48 a.m. CDT (link)
Daily Kos has launched campaign against VP prospect, conservative Eric Cantor.
What a Cantor endorsement.
That link gave me an error
mbauer July 26th, 2008 at 11:04 a.m. CDT (link)
That'd be a Conservative base reconciliation pick and a swing state grabber I'd think? Not to mention a good attack dog.
I haven't heard his name in the discussion before, but I do some what get the feeling that he's not on the short list.
Fixed Link
Commodore Perry July 26th, 2008 at 11:14 a.m. CDT (link)
Cantor for VP
Eric is the perfect candidate for McCain's VP choice because he is not as unexpected as Palin or as run-of-the-mill as Pawlenty. He is young and a base-rallyer who will not bore people or outshine McCain (not that he couldn't, but he wouldn't).
DONT GIVE UP THE SHIP
More analysis at Commodore Perry
My VP Thoughts
IJB July 26th, 2008 at 10:52 a.m. CDT (link)
Can be pretty much summed up with:
1) Don't pick a current Senator (or even a current House member).
Yes, Coburn or DeMint would be great (I don't know enough about Cantor), but McCain desperately needs to establish some anti-DC cred.
2) Don't pick a current member of the Bush Admin.
Now, granted, I'm not very impressed with Condi Rice. But this has less to do with that, and more to do with the fact that McCain needs to fully break with Bush 43 to have any chance of being elected. I'm not saying that's "right" - it's just the way it is.
3) Don't pick a non-Republican.
Whatever Lieberman or Bloomberg get you in "the middle" would be more than made up for with what McCain would lose among the base.
4) Don't pick a relatively new Governor.
It's not that I don't like Palin & Jindal. But I think their respective states need them more, and I'd like to see them tested for a few more years.
5) Don't pick an AA candidate.
Picking a woman or minority just because they're a woman or minority will blow up in McCain's face. Let Obama make that mistake.
6) Don't pick Huckabee!
Whatever you do, don't go there. Just, don't.
Of the names you mentioned, I'm most predisposed to John Kasich.
But Sanford would be great, I could live with Pawlenty, I'd be unenthused by Crist, and I'd be dumbfounded by Ridge (what would be the point?! - I doubt he'd even help in PA!).
McCain might also want to think about going with a current or retired general or admiral - no reason not to rub Barry's nose in it, I say.
Even I would hesitate to elect two "warmongers"
Mord July 26th, 2008 at 12:58 p.m. CDT (link)
Clarifying myself! I don't think McCain is a "warmonger" and plan to vote for him, of course.
Not that I don't agree, It would be cool to rub it in Obama's face, but it's probably a risky idea to elect an ALL-military govornment. I think that civillian control of the military is a good idea. I like McCain for President, he was actually my favorite nominee. Picking another old-school military man might be a little too much of a good thing though.
“Republicans never win polls, they win elections,” - Rudy Giuliani
Palin is the best choice
paint_it_red July 26th, 2008 at 11:04 a.m. CDT (link)
Governor Palin is the best choice to my mind as she is the choice that is most likely to get McCain elected. Some items favoring Palin:
The GOP brand has lagged behind the Dems in the gender gap for years, but this is due to a lot more than abortion. Exit polls consistently show 9% base their vote on the abortion issue, which break 7-2 Pro-Life. The other "women's issues" are ones that Palin is well suited to win voters over on.
Further, look at the internals on the polls in key swing states like Michigan, Colorado, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Florida, where there is a huge gender gap. These are all states you will recall that McCain was polling well ahead of Obama until Clinton dropped out and endorsed Obama. There is no reason McCain/Palin could not win all of them.
McCain inched back to roughly even to a couple points behind Obama over the past few months, but from the conversations and blog traffic I've seen, he has not reconverted many if any of the Clintonistas that are reluctantly supporting Obama. Palin would bring them back.
The beauty of Palin, (besides the fact she is a former beauty queen), is that she also deflects a lot of criticism from the ticket. Dems have to double think the whole McCain is too old bit - that just suggests to the Clintonistas that they could get a women in the White House sooner. If they attack Palin, the Dems alienate huge portions of their base that would be impressed with a successful working woman being unfairly attacked.
A veep selection should never piss off and alienate the base. McCain's a maverick, and it has taken him a long time to walk the tightrope of balancing maintaining that image and winning over the base. Pick a pro-choice Ridge, Rice, Lieberman, Giuliani, or Powell, and its over. I'm not saying there are not great characteristics about these individuals - all great Americans, but they are not electable tickets.
The carry one's own state thing is overstated. Ridge would not carry Pennsylvania (Rasmussen had a recent poll where 33% said they'd be more likely to vote for McCain with Ridge while 31% said less likely). Romney would not carry MA, or even necessarily MI, and Pawlenty would not likely carry MN.
Romney was, and is, a great candidate, but for this go around he'd be the wrong veep choice. He pounded on McCain and McCain's campaign finance reform bill during the primaries. The Dems are sure to have footage of that. It would not do to have commercials running where McCain's own veep selection is clearly and unequivocally attacking him. And, fundraising ability is not an issue this go around. McCain will likely name a veep at the convention, after which he is limited to public funds anyway. Romney should build his stock by helping Republicans get elected around the country.
Palin is very strong on all the issues McCain needs a strong veep - energy and drilling, ethics (her heroic story there would probably win over a lot of Dems, Independents and disaffected Republicans who were upset with the ethics scandal that damaged our party brand over the past couple of years), strong executive approval ratings (had been over 90% for a while), young (but a young woman does not highlight McCain's oldness like a young man would, and still adds balance to the ticket), executive experience, and no major disagreements with McCain.
She's a strong fiscal conservative on spending restraint, keeping government from interfering with businesses, and supporting tax cuts.
She'd be a social conservative hero, and her stances on abortion and gay marriage are not only conservative, but explained in a way that makes sense to independents too. As a mother of 5, she's someone all working parents can identify with. And, if the Dems attack her or snipe against her on that basis, (as some of their less intelligent surrogates are sure to do), it will backfire against them.
While its true she has not had much foreign policy experience, neither has Obama, Clinton, Romney, Pawlenty, or a host of others. McCain's got more than enough foreign policy strength for the ticket, he does not need to pick someone to bolster those credentials. The "lack of gravitas" criticism against her is too nebulous to respond to. She's photogenic, popular, qualified, and electable. I'm not sure which voting block is going to be turned off by her "gravitas."
This could be our 16 year ticket.
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Great analysis supporting Palin
Michael Dugas July 26th, 2008 at 11:46 a.m. CDT (link)
All great points and being a Washington OUTSIDER that much more of a positive image as far as the voters go.
Intro to Federalist Papers; section 5; paragraph 4. "...dangerous ambition more often lurks behind the specious mask of zeal for the rights of the people than under the zeal for a firm and efficient government."
Palin has her problems right now -
Achance July 26th, 2008 at 11:51 a.m. CDT (link)
I did a diary about her troubles over her dismissal of a popular commissioner of public safety a couple of weeks ago. That is still simmering and compounded with all sorts of stories about her and her family's attempts to get a State Trooper, her sister's ex-husband, dismissed.
She then compounded her troubles with her selection of a new commissioner. Either he neglected to mention or her staff neglected to thoroughly vett, and it quickly came out that while he was chief of police in Kenai, he had a sexual harassment complaint. Both he and she hemmed and hawed for a painful couple of weeks but the outcome was inevitable: http://www.adn.com/news/politics/story/475539.html
Now there's a hue and cry for a full-tilt investigation of the whole tawdry mess. Gov. Palin rather openly rode rough-shod over Senate President Lyda Green, so much so that Sen. Green is not seeking re0election. Sen. Green though gets to decide about that investigation and is poised to make Gov. Palin's misery her mission. That fight may make for an interesting fall.
More importantly, Gov. Palin has enjoyed spectacularly gentle press coverage even from the Democrat Party's mouthpiece, the McClatchey-owned Anchorage Daily News. That has very clearly ended. Palin has committed the unpardonable sin of actually acting like a Republican and has been making nice with both Sen. Stevens and Rep. Young. That might interfere with the ADN's planned stately progression of Democrats Begich and Berkowitz to the open Senate and House seats. That would never do, and the ADN has turned on her with a vengance.
To the pure politics of it rather than Alaska inside baseball, neither she nor any other Alaska Governor is a conservative as many of you would define one. While her credentials and actions as a social conservative are pretty solid, Alaska is a socialist state with a command economy that runs on State oil revenue; the State owns the oil. Just as routine business, an Alaska governor is going to do some things that will make the national FisCons cringe. Bear that in mind and visualize the Democrat response to Alaska's current $10 Billion dollar budget surplus, it's Permanent Fund "giveaway" program, Palin's planned direct distribution of cash from the Treasury to each citizen to offset current high energy prices, and operating budget spending that went up around 25% in her first budget. All of those things make perfect sense, even for a Republican governor, here, but they are easily played very differently nationally. Just food for thought.
In Vino Veritas
Thanks Achance... so maybe it IS Pawlenty
CK_MacLeod July 26th, 2008 at 12:57 p.m. CDT (link)
Your info points to the possibility that Palin may be a great first date with high morning-after risk.
As vulnerable to a pretty face as the next guy, and loving all of the rest about her profile in this political conjuncture, I was more than ready to set aside some qualms and jump on the Palin bandwagon - and I'd still be glad to do so. I've hoped or at least wondered if trotting out Romney, Jindal, Pawlenty, Fiorina, Ridge, and others, giving each his or her day or two of buzz, wasn't partly granting a consolation stroll in the limelight and a gesture to each constituency, and partly misdirection ahead of the real choice. In other words, being mentioned, trotted out, and trial balooned would be the best objective evidence that someone else had been selected. It may still turn out that the in-state noise you're discussing looks trivial in the national context.
If the polls looked worse, McCain might feel compelled to set aside the first rule of Veeping ("do not harm") and instead take a big risk, either with Palin or with some other relatively untested "identity" candidate - Carly Fiorina or Meg Whitman, for instance. But, if there's good reason to believe the Quinnipiac polls showing swing state tightening - including in Minnesota, where there's also a contested Senate race and the convention - then Pawlenty's recent mentions and appearances, in which latter he seemed to be auditioning his "on message" abilities at the expense of his "smart and credible" qualities, may not be misdirection at all, but exactly what they looked like.
Palin means Oil
Mary_Contrary July 26th, 2008 at 3:52 p.m. CDT (link)
Alaska may be a detriment, but it's also a plus.
Even if she can't banish the Polar Bears from the land of oil, there's a sub-conscious association.
Palin means Oil.
Good Analysis
LibRick July 27th, 2008 at 9:59 a.m. CDT (link)
Palin is a future star. She has a lot going for her. However, in this go-round, I think the McCain camp probably is considering the very things you point out.
The upside for garnering the Hillary vote is enticing but the risk is that the very choice might detract from his own message.
But you never know with McCain, he goes his own way and has been quite successful doing so.
They wouldn't care
Oscar98 July 26th, 2008 at 1:30 p.m. CDT (link)
They don't care. If you're not one of them, you lose the right to have their sympathy. See Justice Thomas, Powell (in the Sec of State years), and Rice.
That said, solid case for Palin if she had more executive (or command) experience so I could how she'd govern. I also would say the same for Jindal.
My choice hands down would be Sanford, but I know he brings few swing votes to the ticket.
I'm also not interested in 16-year presidencies/administrations. Sorry. I just can't stomach any "succession plan." Even if that's what happens, I hope it's by default, and that the successor is the best choice.
All that said... I agree with the poster below. McCain-Powell is probably a winning ticket. And it wouldn't be a bad thing in foreign policy. They would need a strong economic team in their corner, though. I highly doubt he'd run, though.
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Powell
Robert L. Mayo July 26th, 2008 at 11:07 a.m. CDT (link)
I read a (seemingly) credible news report Here that a high McCain staffer leaked the short list; It had 6 names:
Pawlenty Palin Ridge Romney Lieberman Powell
From the perspective of ideological purity, Powell would be a poor choice, but if the priority is winning, he is the only VP that could be a game changer.
A Market research company called Affinnova ran a study Here Showing him to be by far the strongest VP. My impression is that, although he would loose some votes from the base, he would more than compensate by adding independents. I think he could move some serious electoral votes.
Getting him to agree to join the GOP ticket would be the problem, but if he let it be known that he would not consider it, I doubt he would be put on the short list.
If it would guarantee victory in the fall, I could live with him. Opinions?
Robert L. Mayo Dream no small dreams for they have no power to move the hearts of men. - Goethe
I agree,
frat July 26th, 2008 at 11:33 a.m. CDT (link)
Powell would likely be a net gain for him and would offer a very good chance of success.
My concern with Powell is that he is "pro choice" (a term I hate to use, as it really is more "pro death"). So, the big question would be what kind of judges he would appoint, given that he would be in a good position to become the nominee for prez in a future election.
NO! to Powell and Condi.
mbecker908 July 26th, 2008 at 12:34 p.m. CDT (link)
Either of them would be as bad as Huckabee.
First of all, don't think that either would net McCain one extra black vote or one fawning editorial in the Axis of Stupidity. Just recall the "cartoons" of the two of them serving in the massa's house.
Second, both are infected with whatever virus inhabits Foggy Bottom. They've become acolytes of the internationalists at DoS and their concept of foreign policy is utterly toxic. See Powell's excellent work at undercutting GWB at every opportunity and Condi's metamorphosis into an Arabist.
Third, they're both pro-choice, but I could easily live with that if they had Rudy's other credentials. There's reason to suspect they both support affirmative action, as well. Bottom line, they're not trustworthy on judges. Powell would likely also make GWB look like a movement conservative when it comes to domestic stuff and the growth of government.
Again, not just NO!. Hell NO!
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Powell's future not an issue
CK_MacLeod July 26th, 2008 at 12:35 p.m. CDT (link)
Even setting aside his ideological differences with social conservatives, he's as old as McCain. Otherwise, his last "great" moment was going to bat for the Iraq war policy at the UN - an event which he probably considers the nadir of his public career, and which manages to tie him to Bush's central political error (the whole WMD fiasco), even while his subsequently unhelpful performance on Iraq (even including the Plame affair) ruined him for surge supporters.
About the only excuse for putting him on the ticket would be to keep him from endorsing Obama.
I just hope he picks someone
Kowalski July 26th, 2008 at 11:29 a.m. CDT (link)
All of this analysis about helping and hurting in swing states and with particular voting blocs is interesting and certainly beyond my pay grade because I haven't looked at the numbers, so I'll take other people's word that their analysis is true. Whatever that means in a political environment where people from the other party especially are being allowed to say whatever comes to mind at the moment and have it be reported as the "new truth"...
...so...
All I will say is that I hope John McCain picks someone who is an excellent public persona and who is an unimpeachable Capitalist, and someone who can speak with authority about the economy, social security, medicare, taxes, federalism, the size of the government, and the importance of economic liberty.
He needs to choose someone to really get in front of the American people and explain why someone making $100,000 (or even $250,000) a year is not rich and does not deserve to be "soaked", particularly when their costs of living and keeping the lights on in their business are $110,000 a year or more.
I wonder whether Romney's purported troubles with blue-collar workers aren't an illusion based on a misunderstanding of economics? Or are we just admitting that class warfare is now the dominant state of mind in America?
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Sarah Palin
TrueRedHead July 26th, 2008 at 11:31 a.m. CDT (link)
Would certainly make THIS conservative (woman) jump for joy.
I really can't add much to what Paint_it_red has already outlined above except to say I believe Palin on the ticket would be a huge plus in attracting outraged former Hillary supporters who are going to be a major factor in the G.E.
He will name the Veep before the olympics
Illinicon July 26th, 2008 at 12:06 p.m. CDT (link)
because the olympics will dominate the news cycles while their going on. The first week post olympics is the DNC, so Obama will likely need to pick his VP before the games start to get some buzz out of it before the convention. Once Obama names his choice, McCain will answer back within 48-72 hours to try to steal some headlines pre-olympics.
McCain/Palin '08
My One and Only Comment in This Thread
AndrewHyman July 26th, 2008 at 12:30 p.m. CDT (link)
Anyone here who suggests that Romney would not be the best choice had better be ready, willing, and able to donate oodles of money to McCain and the RNC.
Romney has very deep pockets and huge fundraising ability.
I'm not suggesting that he would or wouldn't be the best pick.*
*I've already maxed out on contributions to McCain for the primary season.
Palin or Fiorina for VP-- McCain Needs a BOLD Choice
Suzy July 26th, 2008 at 12:39 p.m. CDT (link)
I don't think picking a candidate who will help you carry a key state works this time around (I'm trying to think when was the last time this concept worked anyway).
A successful VP helps you balance your shortcomings, not geographics. Bush needed maturity and foreign policy, thus Cheney.
Normally McCain would only need youth and economy. But running against Obama -- who has also captured the imagination of the public as the first African American -- McCain needs to pick a trailblazer.
Obama will pick an older white guy with military and/or foreign policy experience. McCain needs to pick a woman.
Palin brings youth and an understanding that we need to drill NOW. She also would please the conservative base.
Fiorina brings youth and the obvious business experience. She would energize suburban women who lean center left/independent and maybe even sway enough of the Hillary voters who will not vote for Obama.
The only drawback to both of these women is that neither would be perceived as being ready to be president on day one (even though both -- I believe -- are MUCH better qualified than Obama).
Just say NO to Fiorina
NightTwister July 26th, 2008 at 12:48 p.m. CDT (link)
She would turn away blue collar voters much more than Romney would (and I still doubt Romney would). She most certainly would not be ready to take over from day one. Her business experience is suspect at best. She embodies everything negative that people think about conservatives.
Night Twister • Veterans For McCain-•-Palin
FWIW
Adam C July 26th, 2008 at 1:33 p.m. CDT (link)
I don't think Romney "turns away" blue collar workers, he just doesn't bring them in. McCain has always done better among blue collar Rs than upper class Rs. He could use additional help, but he already appeals based on his biography, patriotism, and bad a persona.
Romney won't scare them away. But when people say McCain needs someone who understands economics more, they don't necessarily mean CEO-knowledge. Many mean someone who understands their hardships. Romney doesn't help connect in that way.
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I'd rather a CEO...
mikefisk July 26th, 2008 at 1:53 p.m. CDT (link)
...than yet another career politician. Saying "candidate X alienates blue-collar workers" is basically conceding to Marxist claptrap about class warfare.
And seriously... I'd rather somebody who knows a thing or two about bringing money in and creating jobs rather than somebody who has hardly worked outside the public sector.
"Once within the maw of Leviathan, degree of digestion is irrelevant." - Michael Fisk
7.88, -1.97
Yeah
Adam C July 26th, 2008 at 3 p.m. CDT (link)
And I'd want a reformist anti-earmark activist like Coburn. But he isn't going to get the nod either.
Because it's not about what I or you want.
More importantly, it's important to remember that when people discuss McCain's "need" to bolster his economic creds, many or most are not saying he needs a CEO. They are saying that they are being pinched and want someone who understands that.
McCain is already good on economic policy. He opposes minimum wage increases, supports free trade, supports lower taxes, and supports smaller government. His Fannie Mae op-ed was great.
This isn't about economic policy.
I don't think Romney helps win over "economy" voters. McCain won them in most primaries. And Romney never connected with them. That's not saying Romney is wrong on something. It's saying that he shouldn't be making the pitch "I'll help win over 'economy' voters."
His pros are fundraising, squeaky clean and help win MI. His cons are not popular among swing voters, doesn't connect with blue collar workers, isn't a game changer, and isn't likely to make most conservatives really enthusiastic.
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Just goes to show...
mikefisk July 26th, 2008 at 3:07 p.m. CDT (link)
...why I will never run for elected office. I'd have both parties calling me "out of touch"...
"Once within the maw of Leviathan, degree of digestion is irrelevant." - Michael Fisk
7.88, -1.97
When I Was Talking About an AA VP Pick...
IJB July 26th, 2008 at 1:57 p.m. CDT (link)
...Fiorina was pretty much my textbook example.
If she were a male former-CEO with the same record, he(she) wouldn't even be on the radar.
I'm with The Architect
itrytobenice July 26th, 2008 at 12:54 p.m. CDT (link)
Karl Rove said that a candidate should not consider the electoral consequences nearly to the extent that he considers the governing consequences. If a person would assist the President in enacting his agenda and governing as needed, that is the person a candidate should pick for VP.
McCain has to beat Opossum on his own. Without the skirt of Palin. Without the money of Romney. Without the looks of Sanford. Without the humor of Huckabee. On his own. McCain vs. Opossum. May the best man win.
For that reason I could support a VP Romney (though I could be persuaded that others would work as well). The success he had in the Olympics, his work ethics, his honesty, his business success, his understanding of capitalism (which makes the wheels of America turn), his experience as governor, all these things make me think that he would be a very helpful person to put in the position.
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
Mitch Daniels
quill67 July 26th, 2008 at 2:56 p.m. CDT (link)
While the rest of the midwest industry has been clobbered, Indiana has held its own. Daniels is an ardent balanced budget person (which fits with McCain) but most importantly he knows how to add jobs. He would attract votes in the midwest and his common man appeal would serve McCain well.
Not to mention he learned a very important lesson. He originally supported a plan to raise taxes for 1 year but the Republican led legislature stopped the plan. Together they balanced the budget without tax increases.
Romney's Competence & Money
Swamp_Yankee July 26th, 2008 at 1:31 p.m. CDT (link)
A note on Romney and his money in the primary:
In the beginning, Romney was an unknown with no large built in base. He spent more money because it was necessary for an unknown to compete. He was running against America's mayor, an ancient Senator and war hero, who had been running for President for twelve years, and a national actor and former Senator and another Southerner who had the built in base of evangelicals everywhere.
Romney started out of the gate in single digits and worked his up to almost toppling McCain. He ended up being the number two guy. The notion that he spent money with no effect is a red herring.
Second, he is extremely competent. I think McCain is going to try to do the mature and responsible thing and select the person who can not only help him, but be prepared to take over on one day's notice if necessary. Some of the names being floated around - Palin, Portman, Cantor, Sanford, ... are just not ready for primetime. Romney is smart, unflappable and COMPETENT.
Sanford
Adam C July 26th, 2008 at 1:38 p.m. CDT (link)
and Huck have more Governing experience than Romney. Palin has been a mayor and Governor.
The idea that Romney is particularly prepared to take over "on day one" is not the best argument for him. He has one term as a GOV under his belt and he would have lost re-election if he had run. That's not the strongest political resume.
I respect his private sector experience but you are acting as though he soars above the rest in his preparedness to be President. I don't think most people see it that way.
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Sanford
Swamp_Yankee July 26th, 2008 at 1:49 p.m. CDT (link)
I don't think Romney would get whipped by sofballs like this, at least not after the hard fought primary:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2nNSMZKv_A
Palin has been a Governor for less than two years. Winning a Republican seat in a Republican state isn't the same as running as a full fledged primary candidate and running and winning is a super hyper poltical state like MA. It's not just about experience on paper, which he has. It's about his general composure, demeanor, energy, and intellect. If say, China were to invade Taiwan. I'm not sure how the others could handle the pressure. If Romney is one thing, it is eternally unflappable and very capable. People make fun of him for being machine like, but in a way, it is an asset.
Palin IS competent
Praypraypray July 26th, 2008 at 1:51 p.m. CDT (link)
I pray that Senator McCain chooses Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate. She's a squeaky-clean reformer, a devout Christian, very smart, and speaks cogently during interviews.
Gov. Palin has served as an excellent CEO during her LONG government service, has earned the highest approval ratings of ANY governor, and (this counts!) has a good marriage and loving family. She's pro-life in principle AND in behavior: she and her husband were happy to thank God for their new son, Trig, who has Down's Syndrome. Wonderful!
Also, Gov. Palin agrees with most of Senator McCain's views. She might successfully persuade him to support drilling in the ANWR, which the US needs, and which will NOT hurt the environment.
Best of all, Americans want to LOVE their leaders, and they will love Gov. Palin as much as Alaskans do. She will bring energy, intelligence, and enthusiasm to the Republican ticket. We need these things in order to win!
Very few will get me to vote for McCain
Right_Again July 26th, 2008 at 3:02 p.m. CDT (link)
I know I won't vote for Obama. That is set in stone. However, I am still unconvinced that a vote for McCain would be much of an improvement.
Of those mentioned in this thread, Kasich, Romney and Thune could get me excited for the ticket. I don't know enough about Pawlenty or Palin and probably never will, unless McCain picks one of them. Huckabee, Powell, Rice, Lieberman or Crist would just solidify my opinion of McCain and keep me from voting for President this year.
I wish I could be more enthused, but it just feels too much like Bob Dole, the Sequel.
What a great day on RS 3.0!
Vegas_Rick July 26th, 2008 at 3:34 p.m. CDT (link)
This has nothing to do with the VP thing, although, I think Gov. Pawlenty has the inside track.
NO, NO!
This is about all of the commenters who are out and about today: GC, Achance, MBecker, Sussanah, Adam C, NightTwister, Neil and so many more! It’s almost like the old days. I’m lovin’ it!
Those who control energy, control society.
The weekend crew?
Adam C July 26th, 2008 at 4:09 p.m. CDT (link)
Maybe?
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Is that all it is?
Vegas_Rick July 26th, 2008 at 4:14 p.m. CDT (link)
I'm on, at least lurking, most every day. And this seems like the most active the site has been since the conversion from 2.0. :)
Those who control energy, control society.
Vegas, this is the first time that I have been
janis July 26th, 2008 at 4:18 p.m. CDT (link)
here that things were actually working well. Plus we had that tasty little chuck-treat to work out with. Good times.
Good times indeed! n/t
Vegas_Rick July 26th, 2008 at 4:23 p.m. CDT (link)
n/t
Those who control energy, control society.
Not working that well.
Flagstaff July 26th, 2008 at 10:37 p.m. CDT (link)
It can still take minutes to preview a comment, then post it, then get back to where you were. That's too long for anybody but the chronically unemployed.
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Pluto, the Ninth Planet - Forever!
3 minutes, 27 seconds
Flagstaff July 26th, 2008 at 10:41 p.m. CDT (link)
on that one.
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Pluto, the Ninth Planet - Forever!
The weather's too crummy
Achance July 26th, 2008 at 6 p.m. CDT (link)
and gas is too expensive to be out on the boat, so what's a guy to do?
In Vino Veritas
Work...
Oscar98 July 27th, 2008 at 9:39 a.m. CDT (link)
Which is what I'm doing today. Sorta. It will be a long day, too...
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Its seemed obvious for a long time
SirGladiator July 26th, 2008 at 5:40 p.m. CDT (link)
McCain should either pick a female or hispanic running mate, since either would capitalize on Obama's major weaknesses. My first choice was to pick a hispanic running mate, since that would flip the hispanic vote from 60-30 Obama to probably 75-25 McCain by the time election day rolled around, since we already know from the primaries that most hispanics dont want to vote for Obama if given an actual choice, and being able to vote for a fellow hispanic would give them all the reason they need to vote for McCain.
However now that oil has become one of the top issues in the campaign, and since Governor Sarah Palin is from Alaska, home of ANWR, she can bring not just the womens vote, but the oil issue, squarely into McCain's camp. Plus, like McCain, she is a reformer with results, which highlights McCain's own reform credentials. The fact that she brings such a wide range of assets to the ticket seems to make her by far the best choice.
Also, unlike most of the other candidates mentioned most often, she would lock up her home state for McCain. Granted its an extremely small prize, but in a year in which states that used to not even be contested are suddenly up for grabs, the ability to completely lock up a state that your opponent would otherwise have a chance to win does mean something. Obviously Alaska has never mattered before, but due to the major corruption in the GOP there the Republican brand is so weakened that its actually competitive this year. Palin has fought the corruption and overcome it, that is why she is so extremely popular and would ensure that Alaska stay firmly in McCain's camp. That would also be a powerful narrative for the ticket nationwide, that McCain and Palin have fought the corruption within their own party and won, and if elected they will clean up Washington.
It is amazing that the candidate with the most appeal to the swing voters is also the candidate that would do the most to excite the base as well. Her strong Conservative views on the major moral issues will bring back the values voters that McCain has had trouble reaching, and that will be absolutely key to winning this election.
The only question in my mind is, when should McCain announce his pick? Generally speaking its best to wait and let the other guy go first if you have the chance to do so, and McCain has the right to go second, a right that shouldnt be lightly forfeited. However, if he is smart enough to pick Sarah Palin, I do believe he should make the pick early, for a number of reasons. A smaller reason, but the most obvious, is that it would give the Country more time to get to know her and her compelling story. More importantly however, it would put EXTREME pressure on Obama to match McCain's pick and go with a woman himself, specificly Hillary Clinton. Can you even imagine how crazy the feminists would go if McCain picked Palin and Obama DIDNT pick Hillary? If the nation sees McCain pick a highly qualified and capable woman as his running mate, and then sees Obama buckle to the tremendous pressure he will be under from feminists to pick Hillary, it will make Obama look extremely weak, and he wont even get a boost among women because everyone will know he only picked her because he was forced to. So Obama will be left with all of the negatives that Hillary will bring, and none of the positives that she would've otherwise brought to the table. Not to mention the fact that Palin would be far more attractive to independent voters than Hillary in every possible way. The race would effectively be over after the GOP Convention.
So with all that said, I firmly believe that Governor Sarah Palin should be McCain's VP choice.
agree and disagree
David Hinz July 26th, 2008 at 5:48 p.m. CDT (link)
chose a VP for COMPETENCE not as a token -- tokenism is the Democrat way of doing business.
Choosing a "Hispanic" or "woman" because they are a Hispanic or woman is such liberal thinking that it smacks of racism and sexism.
That said, based on COMPETENCE, I believe Palin would be an excellent choice.
The Minority Report -- The HinzSight Report -- TMRB.tv -- MFOB
Not a threadjack.
Flagstaff July 26th, 2008 at 10:25 p.m. CDT (link)
Tokenism and possibly competence combined will probably result in an Obama-Richardson ticket.
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I've been calling that ticket for months
David Hinz July 27th, 2008 at 8:33 a.m. CDT (link)
it is the only logical choice for Obama
The Minority Report -- The HinzSight Report -- TMRB.tv -- MFOB
I think Palin would be a great choice also.
Josh_Painter July 27th, 2008 at 6:28 p.m. CDT (link)
I can imagine her taking McCain on a helicopter tour of ANWR, showing him the desolation of the proposed drilling area and convincing him to change his position against drilling there for oil.
But I don't think McCain is likely to choose her. Palin and Romney are the only two vp possibilities that I find acceptable.
I don't buy the diarist's argument that "Romney hurts McCain in most states." In the primaries, despite dropping out relatively early, Mitt Romney won 11 states, 4.2 million votes and 291 delegates. He finished second in another 11 states, including some big ones such as California, Florida, New York, Illinois and New Jersey. So of the 29 states that Mitt competed in, he won or finished second in 22 of them. Of the remaining seven states, he finished third in six of them.
Interestingly, an analysis by Pew Research just before the Michigan primary showed that Romney led the entire GOP field among non-evangelical conservatives. For a guy that many say isn't liked well by conservatives, not too bad. Not bad at all.
As for ther evangelical vote, it's tough to win against a former Baptist preacher. Just ask Fred Thompson.
"I don't believe that people should be able to own guns." - Barack Obama
I think Palin would be a great choice also.
Josh_Painter July 27th, 2008 at 6:28 p.m. CDT (link)
I can imagine her taking McCain on a helicopter tour of ANWR, showing him the desolation of the proposed drilling area and convincing him to change his position against drilling there for oil.
But I don't think McCain is likely to choose her. Palin and Romney are the only two vp possibilities that I find acceptable.
I don't buy the diarist's argument that "Romney hurts McCain in most states." In the primaries, despite dropping out relatively early, Mitt Romney won 11 states, 4.2 million votes and 291 delegates. He finished second in another 11 states, including some big ones such as California, Florida, New York, Illinois and New Jersey. So of the 29 states that Mitt competed in, he won or finished second in 22 of them. Of the remaining seven states, he finished third in six of them.
Interestingly, an analysis by Pew Research just before the Michigan primary showed that Romney led the entire GOP field among non-evangelical conservatives. For a guy that many say isn't liked well by conservatives, not too bad. Not bad at all.
As for ther evangelical vote, it's tough to win against a former Baptist preacher. Just ask Fred Thompson.
"I don't believe that people should be able to own guns." - Barack Obama
I think Palin would be a great choice also.
Josh_Painter July 27th, 2008 at 6:28 p.m. CDT (link)
I can imagine her taking McCain on a helicopter tour of ANWR, showing him the desolation of the proposed drilling area and convincing him to change his position against drilling there for oil.
But I don't think McCain is likely to choose her. Palin and Romney are the only two vp possibilities that I find acceptable.
I don't buy the diarist's argument that "Romney hurts McCain in most states." In the primaries, despite dropping out relatively early, Mitt Romney won 11 states, 4.2 million votes and 291 delegates. He finished second in another 11 states, including some big ones such as California, Florida, New York, Illinois and New Jersey. So of the 29 states that Mitt competed in, he won or finished second in 22 of them. Of the remaining seven states, he finished third in six of them.
Interestingly, an analysis by Pew Research just before the Michigan primary showed that Romney led the entire GOP field among non-evangelical conservatives. For a guy that many say isn't liked well by conservatives, not too bad. Not bad at all.
As for ther evangelical vote, it's tough to win against a former Baptist preacher. Just ask Fred Thompson.
"I don't believe that people should be able to own guns." - Barack Obama
I have a problem with a woman or a minority pick
Flagstaff July 27th, 2008 at 12:10 a.m. CDT (link)
if it is clearly made just to counter Obama's color.
Beyond that, we seem to institutionalize roles like this. Sec of State Albright (female) is followed by Sec of State Powell (minority) followed by Sec of State Rice (female minority). Thurgood Marshall is replaced (effectively) by Clarence Thomas. I hope we never get to where we have to have a woman and/or a minority on the ticket just to be competitive.
In case nobody noticed, this election is a black candidate vs a white one. The black electorate realizes this; I don't think white voters do. This is not a PC thing to point out, but there is no way any candidate should get a 95% approval rating from any large group of voters. Geraldine Ferraro was exactly right. On the merits, McCain is head and shoulders above Obama, but you'd never know it from the polls. Maybe it'll show up in the election, though.
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D's get
Xraxnd_Caracarn July 27th, 2008 at 1:41 a.m. CDT (link)
91% to 95+% every time of the black vote, turnout is the issue there. I was under the impression that D's had maxed that demo out with gotv.
The scary thing to me is if the 18-25's actually vote at more than the ~10% number they average. MTV has tried and tried to "rock the vote" but has had less than effective results aside from registering a lot of folks (I think 20 million last election.)
I think you contradicted me, and probably correctly.
Flagstaff July 28th, 2008 at 12:44 a.m. CDT (link)
What Obama may well do is achieve the historic high water mark of 95% of the black vote, but draw many more black voters to the polls. While I wouldn't say it's bad for black citizens to vote, I would say it's bad if they are only doing so because of the color of Barack's skin, just as I'd say it's bad if a lot of white folks go to vote for McCain just because he's white.
But even worse is the situation if we start to polarize voters to the extent that the only way to win is to have ethnic minorities on every ballot in an effort to cancel each other out.
All in all, we are all, Democrats and Republicans, reaping the whirlwind.
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Pluto, the Ninth Planet - Forever!
six months ago I said
David Hinz July 28th, 2008 at 4:42 a.m. CDT (link)
win OR lose, Obama will set race relations back to the '60s because he will polarize the nation.
His extreme incompetence and the divisive rhetoric he insists on using is what will divide this country.
It might take decades now before Americans will be willing to see PAST a candidates race to elect a minority based on content of character -- all because of this fool.
The Minority Report -- The HinzSight Report -- TMRB.tv -- MFOB
Kasich
call4552 July 26th, 2008 at 6 p.m. CDT (link)
The best choice would be John Kasich. He is pro-life, fiscally conservative, telegenic, plain spoken, and last but not least he is from Ohio. Anyone that has heard him on Fox knows that he can convincingly and articulately get his point across. We have been missing that for the last 8 years. Turn him loose on the idiocy of the Dems and this could be a great election--even with John McCain on the ticket.