Red State

Despite a strong week of polling for Obama, McCain has managed to flip his first Kerry04 state in the GE- New Hampshire, which, with the addition of a University of New Hampshire poll, swings ever so slightly into the Republican's camp. This of course does not take away from Obamas strong week in the national polls, and his gains in Virginia. Obama has polled well in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Carolina, New Mexico, and California a bit stronger. Of course how much of this is residue from a rough economic week and how much is the subsiding of the McCain convention bounce has yet to be seen.

Mason Dixon will be releasing daily polls, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls morning, noon, and evening daily for much of the remainder of the cycle. SurveyUSA will also be joining in the daily poll barrage, promising over a dozen new state poll results this week. STATE OF THE STATES PER CANDIDATE (weakest to strongest): MCCAIN: NH +0.5, VA +2, NV +2, OH +3, FL +3.75, IN +4, NC +4.5, MO +4.75, WV +7.5, MT +10, AZ +11, ND +12, AR +13, MS +14, SC +14, LA +15, GA +15, TX +15, SD +16.5, KY +18.5, AK +20, TN +23, NE +24, AL +25, KS +27, OK +30, WY +30, UT +37.5, ID +40. OBAMA: WI +2.5, PA +2.5, CO +2.5, MN +3.5, MI +3.75, WA +5, NJ +6, OR +6.5, NM +8, IA +8, ME +8, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, CT +13, MA +13.5, MD +14, IL +15, CA +15, RI +21.5, VT +21.5, HI +31, DC +60.

NEXT UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 24 2008

oh, and for ITLAP day, whats a Pirate's favorte vacation spot? ARRRRRRRKANSAS...

HUGE polling dump today by ARG...and despite the weird teaser yesterday, mostly good news for McCain. Still, they are weighed on accuracy, and ARG barely ranks above ZogbyInteractive. New York has drifted back to a reasonable margin for Obama,though it remains closer than it has been polling all year. PPP's poll for Viriginia is worrisome- Virginia is a lot closer than many of us on the right would like to think it is, currently just McCAIN+2.5. Some slightly better news is the results out of Colorado- the state remains weak Republican, slightly boosted by ARG.

Now some of the bad news, and this is a bit of a personal aside- I think this may be McCain's peak in the state-by-state polls, judging on the massive switch back to Obama thanks to the poor economic news, for perhaps the rest of the election cycle. If McCain can't break ahead in the economic debate, and effectively tie or beat Obama in the debates, its all downhill for JSM.

Over the whole cycle, a whole bunch of states have been categorized as "tossups". Well, its clear now what is really up for grabs- Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania..... and to a lesser extent Ohio, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, and Oregon. These states may flip back and forth in the last 7 weeks- but dont expect any more surprises.

MCCAIN/OBAMA STATES (weakest to strongest) MCCAIN: CO +1, NV +2.3, VA +2.5, OH +3.75, FL +5, MO +5, IN +5.5, WV +7.5, NC +8. MT +10, ND +10, AZ +11, AR +13, SC +13, MS +14, GA +15, LA +15, TX +15, SD +17, KY +18.5, NE +19. AL +20.5, AK +24.5, TN +25, KS +27. WY +30, OK +32, UT +37.5, ID +40 OBAMA: MI +1.5, PA +2, MN +2.5, WI +3, NM +3, NH +3, WA +3.75, NJ +5, OR +5.5, NY +10.5, DE +11.25, IA +13, MD +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, CA +15, VT +19, RI +21.5, HI +31, DC+60

NEXT UPDATE- SEPTEMBER 19TH 2008

Its official on the rolling adjusted poll average, McCain has flipped Colorado in the data and clings to a lead:While polling from Virginia suggests a slightly more favorable environment to Obama, that is trumped by McCains INCREDIBLE advances in the last few days. First, Washington state became a tossup- a state where Obama had been burying McCain by double digit leads all year. Then two shock polls from Minnesota- the latest from the Star Tribune showing the two tied there. Obama's 10.5pt lead has collapsed there. Now, New York is following a similar pattern. Sure, its Fool's Gold for Republicans (like neighboring New Jersey), but Obama's 16pt lead there has also collapsed. If Blue New York is really within single digits, McCain has made incredible ground that may not be reflected evenly in all the state polls (and may have actually already flipped much of the "barely DEM" states). Lastly, we have one credible pollster showing Pennsylvania as a total tie- Rasmussen- bringing the number of Blue states polling tied or advantage McCain to two. As I mentioned in my previous few entries, I have hesitated to call this election McCains to win or lose, but the dynamic has shifted to the Republicans. Once we begin tying states like Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and eating at Obamas leads in states like Washington and New York, the ball is now (albeit barely) in our court.

If you have followed my projections, or those of Nate Silvers @ FiveThirtyEight.com, you will have noticed a marked shift in the campaign.

I have been reluctant to say this election has now shifted to the Republicans' to lose or win, mainly because much of the McCain surge could be the convention bounce.

However, with the Star-Tribune poll, the momentum has shifted.

For the first time in the general election season, a reliable pollster indicates McCain TIED in a Blue-swing state. Further, the pollster is, shall we say, a bit biased (they dont nickname it the "Red Star" tribune for nothing), and the poll oversamples Democrats- which if readjusted for party ID gives McCain the lead in a state even Reagan couldnt win in 1984.

This, coupled with McCains surge in Washington and Wisconsin, confirms that we have taken the fight to the Democrats turf. We still need to be weary of what happens in Virginia. Florida is pulling away for us, as is the Mountain West. Colorado needs work. But now the Democrats are barely (and I mean barely) leading Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire- a bloc consisting of 73 electoral votes. We win any 2 of those states, we needn't worry about Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa or Nevada.

The dynamic has shifted, as the media and the Democrats have erred in unleashing their wrath on the VP instead of McCain. Palin has locked up Montana, the Dakotas, Alaska, the Carolinas, Missouri, and Georgia- all states Obama foolishly pissed away fortunes in.

Defend Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia.

Its a far shorter list than Obama has to worry about...

The first map shows the current projections with just weighted polls:

McCain still has trouble sealing the deal in New Mexico/Colorado or flipping a Kerry state.

Though Washington now goes on the list of states Obama needs to worry about- the last Rasmussen poll there gave Barack a 12-point lead. This one? 2. It now joins the roster of up for grabs states.

Polling will explode from now through election day- Mason Dixon is expected to release about 6-10 polls Sunday, Rasmussen perhaps another 10-20 next week, and who knows what else from everyone else!

Remember, the second map is pure conjecture based off McCains current national polling momentum and the numbers regarding his performance amongst the independents. Until McCain's polling average puts him ahead in Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Washington, Obama is still winning this thing.

NEXT PROJECTION- SEPTEMBER 15TH

Three weeks ago, the Republican-leaning parts of the map were barely even pink. Now, McCain has only 3 really vulnerable states- Florida, Virginia, and Nevada. The honor of "barely" holding onto much of ones electoral votes now goes to Obama- with six states all now within the margin of error.

New Hampshire, West Virginia, Florida, and Missouri all show stunted or reversed trends in regards to McCain. But the bulk of the swing states have swung hard to the right since the end of the conventions.

Mason-Dixon should be releasing polls towards the end of the week, and Rasmussen will continue to release polls every weekday @ 5pm EST. PPP will be releasing a new Colorado poll tomorrow- perhaps enough momentum for McCain to flip, and thus lead the Electoral Vote?

McCain's and Obama's states below, in order of tiniest to biggest lead: MCCAIN: NV +1, FL +2.5, VA +3, OH +4, IN +4, MO +5.5, SD +6, WV +8, GA +9, AZ +10, TX +10, MT +10, ND +10, NC +10, AR +13, SC +13, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, AL +20, KS +20, AK +25, TN +25, OK +33, WY +37, UT +39. OBAMA: CO +1.5, MI +2, NM +2.25, NH +3, PA +3, WI +3.5, WA +6.5, OR +6.5, NJ +7, DE +9, MN +10.5, IA +12, MD +13, CA +13, MA +13.5, ME +14, CT +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT+35, DC +65.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2008- perhaps McCain will (finally) be on top?

PreConvention/Post Convention:

PROJECTION UPDATE COMING TOMORROW @ 1100PST

First Post-Convention electoral vote map, and it still favors Obama... NOTE- data for Minnesota, New Mexico and Iowa was collected during/right before/immediately after the Democratic National Convention- me suspects these states may trend more to the middle this week. Data recently released reflects gains by McCain in Colorado,Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and an expansion in Virginia and Ohio. Curiously, McCains lead in Florida has shrunk a bit...as has his leads in North Dakota, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Obama has seen a boost in his leads in the Upper Midwest, and as just mentioned, has eaten away at McCain's leads in NV,NC,ND, and Florida.

McCain now leads in the popular vote by about 2.5%, but thanks to Colorado, he still loses the election.

Polling data should be steady now through November 4th. Rasmussen will be releasing data for Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania weekly for FoxNews from now on. We should also see biweekly releases from Public Policy and perhaps daily releases from SurveyUSA. States ranked weakest to strongest for both candidates 9/8/08:

MCCAIN: NV +1, MT +1, ND +1.5, VA +2, FL +2, NC +3, OH +4, IN +4, SD +6, MO +7, GA +9, TX +10, WV +10, AZ +10, AR +13, MS +13, SC +13, AL +15, ID +16, KY +18, LA +18, NE +19, KS +20, AK +22, TN +25, OK +32, WY +37, UT +39 OBAMA: NH+1, CO +1.5, MI +2, PA +3.5, NM +5, WI +6, OR +6.5, DE +9, MD+10, WA +10, NJ +10.5, MN +10.5, IA +12, CA +13, MA +13.5, CT +14, ME +14, IL +15, NY +16, RI +21, HI +30, VT +35, DC +60

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It was bound to happen, and we now have the polling data to back it up: McCain has received a modest bounce from the convention.

The first indicator of this was a release from CNN last week, around Labor Day, showing Obama's lead had narrowed to just 1 point, 49-48 (here). Soon after, CBS news released this one on Thursday, indicating in their polling that the race was dead even.

Mind you, these were all taken BEFORE the nights of Palin and McCains speeches.

Yesterday, Rasmussen and Gallup began trending towards a tie. Democrat John Zogby released his latest internet poll, giving McCain the first post-convention lead, and one where he garnered within striking distance of the hallowed 50% mark.

Today, Scott Rasmussen indicated a tie- 48-48 w/leaners, in the daily tracking poll of Likely Voters.

Gallup chimes in, showing McCain ahead by 3 amongst registered voters in it's daily tracking poll.

Lastly, we have todays USAToday/Gallup poll of registered and likely voters. Amongst registered voters, McCain beats Obama 50-46. But amongst likely voters, McCain has CRACKED 50%, now holding a 10-pt lead.

If the Gallup and Rasmussen trends continue to show a bounce through Wednesday, we could expect to see McCain ahead roughly by 4-5 points in the RCP average @ RealClearPolitics.com. If he manages to hold an average of 49.5% in the national vote in the weeks FOLLOWING the bounce, McCain will become the likely winner, with Obama playing roll as underdog.

We are a nation that has undertaken incredible feats of engineering- we have developed a complex telecommunications system, the Hoover Dam, countless record-breaking bridges... So before reading further, and asking the "but but buts"... Open your mind to the idea of the greatest economic stimulus program ever- An international "power" pipeline.

McCain has pressed the idea of using everything under the sun (and hell, that gaseous giant too) to power our future. Suppose we take it a step further. Suppose WE propose a plan that could employ possibly millions of people. Wind in the Midwest/Southwest. Solar in the Southwest and the Artic (land of the Midnight Sun, and come on- you cant tell me we cant create cold-resistant solar cells). Geothermal power in the Northwest and Alaska (Ring of Fire, anyone?). Tidal and hydroelectric along our Pacific Coastline. Clean coal and nuclear up and down the western United States. Creating a new grid, and a new energy network, that extends literally from the tip of Alaska to the Mexican border. An engineering project that, with good foreign relations and major feats of engineering, can expand westward PAST the Bering Strait, down through eastern Siberia and NE China. Lets face it- the Far East is rapidly catching up to us- and their energy demands have exploded... A truly multinational steroid-injected super-highway of energy that would employ (permanantly)- millions of people along the route- Substations and Power Stations needing thousands to operate them, personnel needed to be hired to maintain lines, particularly in the roughs of the NW and Alaska on our end. Blue Collar/White Collar/Oily Collar, all there. And on our end, these are jobs that wont disappear. Demanding this vision to become a reality, challenging the rest of the country to jump on board, could give our side an even bigger boost- more so since it is feasible, albeit mindblowingly massive. And this WITHOUT the government funding it- private businesses will be more than ready to jump on the opportunity.

Now, I know we sort of have lines and stations and yada yada yada already- beef it up. We always need more power. If the Bering Gap could be closed (and thats a big if), we could help feed even more power to the up-and-coming superpower of China.

Doesnt this make us vulnerable? Why would we want to enable the Chinese and the Russians and endanger our own position in the world? We aren't- its good business that will draw all interested in making a buck. A massive powersupply that has all parties interested both as consumers and producers could further stabalize our sometimes questionable relations with the Peoples Republic of China, and could help take Putins mind somewhat off eating Europe alive- when instead he can charge his Eastern neighbors equally predatory rates for electricity.

There are numerous problems and challenges with my vision. Its massive. Its sketchy. A lot of people would oppose it on various grounds. It requires interstate and international cooperation. But its a Big Idea that if we could get working would really, really kick our economy in the ass AND make my SCE bill go down a few hundred bucks- and I've been eyeing 22s for my 87 volvo station wagon...

So, any engineers/etc out there with some ideas that could get this rolling?

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After both conventions, McCain will see a boost in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Montana, Alaska (duh), the Dakotas, and Pennsylvania. He may also see some favorable movement in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan, but not anything significant.

Obama will see a boost in Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and New Jersey- with perhaps a slight uptick in New Hampshire...but thats depending on the independents...

Enough of my vague guesses, anyone else want to take a shot at the swing states?

As I feel it is foolish to even update a projection in the middle of two conventions' conflicting bounces, I will, unless otherwise noted, refrain from any updates to my projections until (at the earliest) Tuesday of next week. Polling data from the swing states will only begin to reflect the real winner next week (and methinks thats why PPP, Razzy, Susa, Zomgsby, and the rest have refrained from state by state polling).

That being said, from here on out polling data will be roaring in, just when my day job picks up for the year.Pollster.com has been pretty helpful in collecting data, but polls will be released SO quickly and so frequently I will be missing a few of them here and there. Starting probably September 15th I will attempt to update projections every other day. If you notice a poll that may have slipped under the radar (read- not from Rasmussen, PPP, Mason Dixon, Survey USA, or Quinnipiac), feel free to email it to me, along with the crosstabs, to theoneandonlyfinn@yahoo.com .

States to look for next week- all of the biggies: Ohio (expect every polling firm to release post convention) Virginia Colorado Pennsylvania New Hampshire Alaska Nevada New Mexico Florida Michigan Minnesota Iowa Wisconsin

Looking forward to crunching the numbers again!

FINAL PROJECTION BEFORE THE CONVENTIONS, GOOD REFERENCE START POINT FOR ANALYZING ANY CONVENTION BOUNCES FOR THE CANDIDATES.

NOTE- NEW MAP DESIGN! Since we are now within the last 10 weeks of the campaign, states are divided into four categories for both parties-Barely (0.1-3.9 within M.O.E.), Likely (4-9.9), Strong (10-14.9), and Solid (15+). Obama has regained the lead in the electoral vote with Colorado, now+2 for the Democrat. This thanks to the Mason-Dixon batch of Western U.S. polls and the Suffolk U poll. Meanwhile New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Michigan have polled tighter, cutting Obamas lead to a point a piece for the first two states and just 4.5 in Michigan. PPP's recent Virginia poll, matching last months, pushes it back to a near-tie, McCain is holding on to a fractional lead there. The Democratic convention starts today, I expect Obama to receive a 3-6pt bounce through the week, which may not be reflected until next week's state-by-state polls.

CURRENT OBAMA/MCCAIN STATES AND MARGINS (weakest to strongest) McCAIN: VA+.02 MT+1 NV+2.5 FL+2.5 OH+2.75 NC+4 AK+5.5 IN+6 ND+6 SD+6 MO+7 GA+9 AZ+10 TX+10 WV+10 AR+13 MS+13 SC+13 AL+15 KY+18 LA+18 NE+19 KS+20 TN+25 OK+32 WY+37 UT+39

OBAMA: NM+1 NH+1 CO+2 MI+4.5 MN+4.75 PA+4.75 WI+6 IA+6.25 OR+6.5 DE+9 MD+10 WA+10 NJ+10.5 CA+13 MA+13.5 ME+14 CT+14 IL+15 NY+16 RI+24 HI+30 VT+35 DC+60

McCain's surge may be subsiding now as we are heading towards the back-to-back conventions... Obama's margins in Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa are growing slightly, enough to bump Iowa into likely Democratic status. Nevada as well has drifted back towards a tie with Research2000's Nevada poll giving Obama a 1pt advantage there. McCain is still making headway, however, in some key swing states- New Hampshire is on the verge of a virtual tie- Obama now leads with just a 1.2 pt margin- it had been 11pts in late June. Pennsylvania, with Rasmussen's latest polls, has drifted into "weak Democrat". Still enough of a margin for Obama to have a good cushion, but if it falls any more things could get exciting in the Keystone State.

Polling out of New Mexico shrinks Obama's lead there as well.

North Carolina has been an oddball state for much of the year in polling. While it has never given Obama a lead, the state has only given McCain a 2-6pt lead all year. It drifts back to weak McCain thanks to the recent InsiderAdvantage poll.

Next week is the Democratic Convention. Expect to see polling throughout the week in: New Hampshire Ohio Michigan Colorado New Mexico Pennsylvania Florida Nevada Virginia Iowa Wisconsin Oregon and perhaps a few pointless-to-poll states, like Kentucky, Nebraska, or California.

Had to adjust several states for the trend, but with a poll out of the RockyMountainNews, it is enough to change Colorado from tossup to weak GOP, giving McCain a 274-264 lead in the Electoral Vote and winning the General Election.

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Well back again with another projection update, this one thanks to some new polls from PPP, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA (which hasnt been polling all summer), and Quinnipiac.

Since mid-June, McCain has expanded his support in Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, flipped Ohio and Virginia, forced Colorado to a tie, and has cut Obamas leads in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Obama has managed to solidify his existing leads in the rest of New England, California, New York and New Jersey, but these states have been projected as safe Democrat for months. His only cut into McCains gains have been in Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska- worrisome since these are traditionally very red states, but coming close on these 9 electoral votes pales to the 31 currently trending back towards McCain.

If Colorado holds its current Republican trend (Rasmussen has it +1 McCain, Quinnipiac +2), it can tip the scale over to a 274-264 lead for McCain. Of course, with the Democratic National Convention in Denver, it could swing back to Barack (or backfire and go further into McCains). Have to wait and see.

Public Policy Polling should be releasing a new Ohio poll shortly (probably still showing an Obama lead but probably down from his +8 in July).

The one worrisome area for McCain is the traditionally Red west and Alaska- recent polling out of Alaska, North Dakota and Montana leave all three (doubtful to me, but hey, its what the polls say) within the margin of error for McCain. States that will probably be polled in the coming week: New Mexico (well overdue) North Carolina Virginia Ohio (probably PPP as reported earlier) New Hampshire (perhaps Rasmussen or UNH) Florida Pennsylvania Iowa

All one has to do is read the recent releases from Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac to see that McCain has been gaining considerable ground, even in Democratically "safe" states. Hes now up again in Nevada as the trend average moves back nationally in his favor, he's managed to cut Obamas leads in Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire, and has strengthened in several key red states.

As the national data shows a tightening race (Rasmussen gives McCain the lead including leaners for the first time in well over a month), state races are tightening as well.

FiveThirtyEight.com had been using what I felt was a bit of a stretch- a trend-adjustment to their polling to reflect the movement in the national polls. But as we've seen in the last two months, when Obama expands nationally, he expands leads/takes over in the swing states; and when Obama's lead contracts, there goes his leads. Its impossible to ignore now.

If McCain continues to do better in the national polling over the next week (as the war continues to improve, gas prices drip down but the demand for drilling increases, etc), I would be shocked to see McCain still stuck @ 265 come Tuesday. McCain is currently 2pts down in the average at FiveThirtyEight.com and 2.5 down @ RCP. I have him clocked @ 2.4. If that gap narrows to within a point, or goes into a lead for McCain, we're looking at an EV of at least 274. Tiny. But enough to win.

Polling data from here through November should come rather regularly now, particularly since we are now within the last 100 days. The Olympics may overtake the election briefly in the news, but come the end of August/beginning of September, the fun really begins.

Apologies to all for no projection updates in the last two weeks. Between WALL*E, painting, and a few family shenanigans I've been a tad busy... Currently Obama still leads McCain (as he did in my previous months projections), but his national lead is shrinking, and subsequently that tightening is reflecting in the state polls. Virginia, where Obama was holding a surprising 4-5 pt lead, still remains (for the first time since 64) in the Democrats camp, but barely- the current average is just Obama +.5, and any poll showing a McCain lead will be enough to tip that back over. The Mountain west has been surprising- particularly the Dakotas and Montana, which have been polling rather favorably for Obama. On the other hand, Colorado is becoming more competitive. At this point in May, Colorado was averaging about 5.5pts for Barack. His lead has shrunk down to just 3, well within the margin of error. Expect more polls from Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan in the next week. Id expect Q to release its FPO swing poll by Friday...that will give us a better picture of what McCain is facing in the more northerly swing states...