Let me start off on a tangent and just say- this has been an
awesome summer for movies. Iron Man, WALL*E, The Dark Knight...I've
yet to see a movie that disappointed this year. Particularly
Nolan's Knight, which I had the pleasure of seeing on IMAX...(and
might I add theres no hype behind Ledgers performance as the
Joker...he's perhaps the most believable psychopath-villian on the
screen in years)... now onto good news in the projection...
As the national race continues to tighten (and the full
effects of Obama's World Tour '08 on public opinion are so far
unclear), several states have moved into McCains direction quite
heavily. While McCain's lead in NC waxes and wanes more than an
extreme dieters waistline, and Nevada has drifted to a tossup,
McCain has regained the lead in Virginia, expanded his existing one
in Georgia, and has gained perhaps the most crucial state- Ohio.
Rasmussen's latest poll is enough to push the 30 day average into
McCain's favor by +1.5. Meanwhile, the Obama-favoring swing states
of Michigan and New Hampshire have become far more competitive.
Recent polling out of both states has shrunk Obamas leads- in
Michigan from +7 to +4.5 and in New Hampshire from +10 to just
+3.5.
At this point, McCain needs to simply hold onto his recent
gains, push and steal back Nevada, and flip (in order of
likelihood) Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, or
Oregon.
Case for VP Romney?
justatron July 22nd, 2008 at 1:23 p.m. (link)
Looking at this map, I see a very strong case for making Romney the VP. He could flip NV, CO and (maybe) MI back red. Not a landslide for McCain, but a win nonetheless.
This just goes to show the weakness of Obama as a candidate. There is NO reason he shouldn't be blowing McCain out at this stage of the game, since he has been front and center in the media non-stop since January. If he can't lead now, how bad will it get for him by November?
I could go for Romney!
Sandra_Lea_Wise July 22nd, 2008 at 2:03 p.m. (link)
Have you heard any buzz about Giuliani?
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
Actually there's plenty of reason Obama should be like this
Neil Stevens July 22nd, 2008 at 2:04 p.m. (link)
It's only if you believe the press that one would think Obama should be way up. :-)
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Confirmation
mbauer July 22nd, 2008 at 1:27 p.m. (link)
The state polls have finally caught up with the national tie Rasmussen was reporting last week.
I hope as more polling comes in, some of those light red states become a little safer.
By my count you have 79 EV as weak rep and 35 as weak dem
I told you all VA will not be going Obama...
Jaded July 22nd, 2008 at 1:27 p.m. (link)
The Messiah can open 20 offices in Northern VA and waste his money all he wants but he is not well spoken of in many quarters around here.
Whoever has his enemy at his mercy & does not destroy him is his own enemy
I think
Rod_Patrick July 22nd, 2008 at 1:38 p.m. (link)
that Obama's strategy is working against him. In his desire to paint the heavy red states by blue, McCain's slowing advancing in the toss-up state.
I hope the Obamanots will open up thousands of offices in Utah and spend all his 100 million bucks in the State of the Mormons. That will prove whether or not Obama is really the greatest political magician of all time.
Just wait until the Dem Nat'l Convention inflicts itself on Colorado
Finrod July 22nd, 2008 at 1:55 p.m. (link)
If their convention is half as chaotic as expected, that alone will turn Colorado back red.
Hm, that would give John McCain exactly 269. Maybe it's not too soon to start worrying whether we can win a tie-breaker in the House.
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth: A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Then McCain will likely win
Dave_in_Fla July 22nd, 2008 at 7:42 p.m. (link)
In the case of a tie, Congress is called into session immediately, and each state gets a single vote. The person who gets 26 votes wins. Since any tie would require Obama to have California's 55 electoral votes, this means the majority of states are voting for McCain.
Looking at the map above, McCain would win 31 - 19 (Assuming I counted right).
"If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country."
Actually, Obama would likely win.
CrabCakes July 22nd, 2008 at 8 p.m. (link)
Currently, the Democrats hold the majority of House seats in 27 states. Republicans hold a majority in 21, and 2 (Arizona and Kansas) have an even split.
Of course that will change slightly after the fall election, but probably not in the GOP's favor.
Well, based on the last time it happened...
Moe Lane July 22nd, 2008 at 8:29 p.m. (link)
...which was apparently 1824, the House will meet before the new session starts... and that's when the serious politicking starts. Each Representative will be presented with two arguments:
1). You should vote as per the national popular vote total; 2). You should vote as per your State's popular vote total;
...and that's where things get hairy for Democrats in Red districts, and Republicans in Blue ones. And then there's the Senate to consider, as the VP decision will be also be tossed to Cognress. I count an effective 50/50 there - hi, Joe! - which means that Cheney would end up picking his successor.
Alternatively, we can hope that a Presidential/VP elector will switch and make it 270-268, if only because conspiracy theorists need new material from time to time.
Moe Lane
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.I've been usurped!