Is it possible that George W. Bush could be the last Republican president ever, or at least for the foreseeable future?
Am I crazy to even formulate that question?
Maybe not and here are 10 reasons why.
1. Rapidly changing demographic trends that favor the Democrat party.
2. An education system controlled by liberals that churns out young liberals.
3. A population with an ever increasing dependence on government in the form of entitlements and subsidies.
4. A mainstream media that is overwhelmingly comprised of journalists who subtly and not so subtly spin the news in support of Democrats and liberal causes.
5. The influence of Hollywood which makes it cool to be a liberal Democrat.
6. The growing power concentrated in local, state, and federal government worker unions whose members actively campaign against Republicans on the taxpayer dime. (See WI Governor Walker’s upcoming recall election for an active example of this.)
7. A culture where non-traditional social and sexual behavior has become mainstream.
8. A hatred for Republicans in general and a tendency to blame the party for “the mess we’ve inherited.”
9. A Republican party that is growing increasing white, old, southern and male, while alienating majorities of younger voters, Hispanics, African Americans, gays, teachers, young professionals, atheists, unmarried women and even suburban married women.
10. The internet and the growing social media phenomenon that strongly tilts in favor of Democrats.
Together, all of the above reasons are reflected in the latest Obama vs. Romney Real Clear Politics Electoral College map.
Currently with 270 electoral votes needed to win, the states that are either likely or lean Obama total 253, while Romney’s likely or lean states total 170.
What is even more significant is the list of toss-up states.
Below is a list with their electoral votes and a hyperlink to the latest Obama vs. Romney polling averages in each state.
Together these 9 states total 115 electoral votes of which Romney must win 100 if he is to reach 270.
Consult your nearest statistician for the odds of that happening.
Upon examining this lopsided electoral match- up one could conclude that Romney is not the strongest candidate the Republicans could nominate to go up against Obama.
Sure, you could say that, but you would be wrong.
The truth is Romney at this time, is actually the best candidate the Republicans could have to spearhead the ticket. The reasoning is since Romney is perceived as “more moderate”, he has a better chance of converting independent voters in those 9 toss-up states with 115 electoral votes, than any of his former GOP rivals.
(Do you seriously think Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann, Cain or Perry would be doing any better?)
Romney’s problem with the electoral map is NOT Mitt Romney. But it is his problem in that the attitude and composition of the voting electorate is trending away from what the Republicans as a brand, have traditionally stood for -- less government, traditional values, taking charge of your own destiny, strong defense, God, family and apple pie. Does anyone seriously have a plan to turn around current social and cultural trends? Think about the 10 reasons at the beginning of this piece and it becomes clear that the Democrat voting mold is cast.
This pains me to write, but let’s just say the statistical chances of Romney winning 100 out of those 115 electoral votes prove to be too much and President Obama is re-elected.
What happens to Republicans as they try again for the White House in 2016? Here is a preview.
Base conservatives who were against Romney and wanted a “true conservative” at the top of the ticket in 2012 will blame Romney for the loss and the cycle of finding a “Reagan Conservative” leader will begin again just like it did after McCain’s loss to Obama in 2008.
Meanwhile, traditional Republican states like North Carolina, Virginia and Arizona have become fierce battlegrounds joining the usual battlegrounds of Ohio and Florida. Thus, the path to 270 for ANY present and future Republican presidential nominee becomes narrower and narrower while the Democrats have an increasing number of options.
Looking back, based on how much the demographic composition of the nation had changed, there are studies (by Democrat think tanks) that conclude John Kerry in 2004 and even Michael Dukakis in 1988 would have won the White House if they faced the same electorate then that President Obama is facing this November. The Democrats know that today’s demographics are their destiny.
I wish I had better news to report but based on the 10 reasons cited above I conclude that President George W. Bush and President Millard Fillmore might have something in common.
Fillmore in 1850 was the last Whig Party president and Bush re-elected in 2004 might be the last Republican Party president.
For the sake of this nation’s future, I hope I will be proved wrong. However, when I look at all the young Democrat voters in my own family I shake my head.
The thought of any of them voting for a Republican president this time or anytime in the future, is as unlikely as any one of them quitting Facebook.
It’s the culture, stupid.