By the standards of “political time” where in one day a candidate can go from frontrunner to underdog, the November 8, 2016 presidential election is decades away. But from this 2013 vantage point all signs point to Hillary Clinton coasting to the Democrat party nomination and winning the White House.
As a lifelong Republican I am not pleased with my own prediction – for nothing would thrill me more than if a Conservative were to win back the White House in 2016. But my political reality instincts lead me to believe the following:
That unless there is a radical change of circumstances within the Republican Party and its crop of 2016 presidential wannabes, or there is some unforeseen cataclysmic national event that dramatically alters the current economic and political landscape, or a serious deterioration in Hillary’s health – there are 16 reasons why Hillary Clinton is poised to be elected the next President of the United States in 2016 -- listed below in order of importance.
1. Madame President: A Great Social Movement in the Making
A great and powerful social movement to elect the first Madam President is gathering wind and will reach sustained hurricane strength on November 5, 2014 -- the day after the mid-term elections and the “official start” of the 2016 presidential campaign.
Akin to the movement that elected the first African American president in 2008, the “Madame President movement” will be propelled by the mainstream media, Hollywood and social media. Altogether they will build momentum and coalitions across all platforms, while reveling in its awesome social and cultural significance. You will hear the “Triumph of the 60’s Feminist Movement,” that you will be “Voting to make history,” and your vote will be used as a “Hammer to break through the glass ceiling of the Oval Office.” Warning: Prepare for the onslaught because it is coming your way.
2. Media/ Hollywood/Celebrity/Pop Culture is Ready To Crown a Queen
Hillary, as the first female presidential nominee of a major party will be anointed by the Media/Hollywood/Celebrity/Pop Culture similar to how they anointed the junior Senator from Illinois in 2008. The only difference between then and now is Obama was hailed as the Messiah, and Hillary will be the Queen ready to ascend to her royal throne. Already NBC has announced a Hillary mini-series set for airing before NBC has to steer clear of FCC equal time regulations. (In other words, right before Clinton officially announces her candidacy for maximum ratings.)
3. Groupthink: It’s Her Time - She Deserves It
Between now and 2016, listen as political pundits exclaim, “It’s her time” or “She deserves it.” Long suffering Hillary, who was publicly humiliated by her cheating husband, and then triumphed over adversity by being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000. Long suffering Hillary, who was defeated by her own party for the presidential nomination in 2008, and then further rejected by Obama to be his running mate.
Triumph came later when “Hillary the Obama team player” became the globe trotting Secretary of State and despite any lack of real accomplishment, eventually earned international respect and higher approval ratings than the team leader himself.
Therefore, because of her highs and lows, the “unholy alliance” of cultural/media forces truly believe that “it is her time and she deserves it,” then sit back and watch it all enfold. This Groupthink will be a toxic mix of media bias that the Republican presidential candidate will be forced to drink on a daily basis.
4. Organization the Obama Way
Hillary’s campaign in waiting, the Ready for Hillary PAC is readying itself to turn into her official campaign as soon as Madame General signs the battle order.
Some top notch Obama campaign talent, Jeremy Bird and Mitch Stewart have already been hired to build an organization similar to President Obama’s near flawless, state of the art campaign. Then it would be nearly impossible for the Republican presidential candidate to quickly build and match what will then be a huge national campaign organization with a three year head start. For the Republican challenger it would appear as if Hillary were the incumbent.
5. Barrels of Money
For the 2012 presidential campaign both candidates eventually raised a billion dollars. But Obama had the advantage of early money and put it to great use negatively defining and attacking Romney throughout the spring of 2012.
Between now and 2016 Hillary could easily raise more than a billion dollars and much of it early. In fact, just this week it was announced that Ready for Hillary had raised over a million dollars in June alone, without its candidate of course. This early money will give Hillary the same advantage Obama had to smear whoever emerges as her likely opponent while the GOP primary season chugs along to its conclusion.
6. Electoral College is Slanted Towards Hillary and the Democrats
Just how much of an advantage will the Electoral College offer Hillary in 2016? Here are some startling facts:
In 2012 the final Electoral College results were 332 for Obama and 206 for Romney. But if Romney had won the battleground states of Florida (29 votes), Ohio (18 votes), and Virginia (13 votes), Obama would still have been reelected but by a closer margin of 272 to 266.
Now, just because Obama won well over 300 electoral votes does not mean Hillary will repeat that achievement. However, the math path to 270 is much easier for any Democrat candidate given current and future demographic growth and established voting patterns.
7. Hillary Will Have Either Symbolic or No Primary Opposition
The only reason why ambitious power players like New York Governor Andrew Cuomo or Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley might challenge Hillary to a primary is to increase their own national name recognition with the goal of landing on Hillary’s VP shortlist. (The battle to top that shortlist will be the real Democrat primary of 2016.) Not having a real primary will be a tremendous advantage for Hillary thus freeing her to concentrate on the general election battle while the Republicans are still battling each other.
Meanwhile, Vice President Biden will fall in line and become an avid campaigner/ fundraiser for Hillary because he will obey his boss’s orders – both of them.
8. Hispanic Voting Block is Hillary’s to Lose
In 2012 the Republican Party was shaken to the core after Romney lost Hispanic voters to Obama by a lopsided margin of 71 to 27 percent. Now remember, the Ready for Hillary PAC has already hired some key Obama managers and field organizers who helped produce those outstanding results. Certainly part of their new job will be to ensure that the fast growing Hispanic population continues to be a loyal Democrat voting block.
And you can bet on this: Ready for Hillary will be “ready to register” all of those 50,000 Hispanic teenagers who will be turning 18 every month for the next two decades.
9. African American and Asian Vote is also Hillary’s to Lose
The Republican Party was hardly surprised when Obama won the African American vote by 93 to 6 percent in 2012. But they were surprised that he won the Asian American vote by a wide margin of 73 to 26 percent. Will Hillary resonate as well with these two groups?
I can only take a wild guess about Asian American’s attitude towards Hillary, but I do remember Bill Clinton being called America's first black president well before we had one.
10. Bill Clinton Will Be a Tremendous Asset to Hillary
“Vote for the First Dude” is a bumper sticker waiting to happen.
During last summer’s Democratic Convention Bill Clinton convinced America to vote for President Obama in what was heralded as such an eloquent speech that it made Obama seem small by comparison.
At that moment, Democrats and their media allies experienced a tsunami of feel-good Clinton nostalgia that continues to this day and “Hillary 2016” is the supreme beneficiary. Furthermore, from a pop culture/ media perspective, her leaner, non-meat eating, more highly evolved, totally re-branded, well-respected charitable husband of Clinton Global Initiative fame will be one of Hillary’s greatest assets on the campaign trail. (Assuming here "Bimbo Eruptions" are a thing of the past.)
The once deadly “Clinton fatigue” that plagued Hillary in 2008 now only lives in the minds of Republicans. In fact, Obama's presidency has made Democrats long for both Bill and Hillary more than ever. And, unless Elvis is reincarnated as a Republican, the GOP has no celebrity stars that even come close to “Bubba the Big Dog.” (Don’t even THINK about Clint Eastwood or his empty chair.)
11. Hillary Will Run For Either Obama’s Third Term or Bill Clinton’s.
If Obama’s presidency tanks in its final years, than Team Clinton, with the help of the complicit media could easily repackage herself to run for Bill Clinton’s “third term.” (Remember how his third term was won by Al Gore in 2000 and then stolen by that evil George W. Bush, or so goes the Democrat folklore.)
Or, if “back to the nineties” with its booming economy does not test well, then some really clever re-positioning would allow Hillary to distance herself from the failed policies of the Obama administration. However, the trick for Hillary is to still utilize Obama’s ever-likable persona just enough to fire up his loyal base to serve her own purposes. This tactic will achieve success no matter how low Obama’s approval ratings because there are always Republicans around to blame.
12. The Republicans Have a Weak Bench With Little Star Power
If the Democrats did not have Hillary, or she declines to run, than both parties would have weak benches filled with ambitious 2016 candidates.
In this case, the campaign playing field would be roughly equal (except for that growing slant in the Electoral College.) But the Democrats do have Hillary and all signs point to her running, so that leaves only a weak GOP bench and the question, “How can any of the potential GOP candidates possibly win 270 electoral votes?”
13. The Long GOP Primary System Plays to Hillary’s Advantage.
On May 30, 2012 Romney finally won enough delegates to win the Republican nomination. And during that month, Obama pummeled and defined Romney as “a rich mean man of privilege who fired people like you so he could become even richer.” Romney didn’t know what hit him and hardly responded. Some Republican political consultants believe May was the month when Romney lost the general election because he was too busy wrapping up the nomination and building a national campaign organization.
This is only one example of how the Republican primary traveling circus went on far too long, hurting the eventual winner and was extremely debilitating to the image of the party in the eyes of the general electorate.
Now in 2016, (unless order suddenly comes from chaos) it looks like we are in for another long, heated, Republican primary season while Hillary assumes the Obama-like incumbent position, ready to pounce on whoever starts to emerge victorious.
14. Hillary Will Make the Case That She Is the Only Leader Who Can Bring Us Together
As the potential first woman president and commander in chief, Hillary must prove that she has the capacity for strong leadership and is not afraid to compromise with Republicans in order to solve the problems confronting this nation.
And with friends throughout the media singing her praises, this task should be a no-brainer even when the Benghazi clip of “What difference does it make?” is being played non-stop by Republicans in 2016.
But the irony here is by offering herself up as the strong leader that America desperately needs (like she did so well in 2008) she draws an obvious negative comparison with our current leader who is sadly lacking in this skill set and whose blessings she wants repeated out on the campaign trail.
My guess is the media will gloss over Obama’s lack of leadership while bolstering Hillary’s and they will both get what they want – Obama, a historic legacy and Hillary, his office. Because with the media on your side - everything is possible!
15. Calling Hillary Old Insults the Old Republican Base
Hillary was born in 1947 making her 66 years young and, if elected president, she will turn 70 her first year in office. But as we all know, 70 is the new 55 so this is not a problem. But, the next time you hear a Republican say that Hillary is too old to run (as I do all the time) please have these facts handy:
In the 2012 election, voters over the age of 65 comprised 16 percent of the electorate and voted for Romney over Obama by a whopping 56 to 44 percent -- making this age group Romney’s most loyal voting block.
Next most faithful were the 45 – 64 year-olds who comprised 38% of the voters and supported Romney 51 to Obama’s 47 percent.
So how do these stats help Hillary?
The answer is today’s “old people” do not think of themselves as old but rather smarter, more disciplined, better educated and more competent than the generations that followed. Romney won older voters because he appeared more competent and accomplished than Obama. Now it is Hillary who will wear the competent and accomplished label more often than black pantsuits.
In addition to the competence factor, older voters (especially aging baby boom women) relate well to someone like Hillary, identifying with her life journey and numerous family struggles.
Therefore, old people will carefully listen to her message and give her the benefit of the doubt since the concept of “it is her time and she deserves it” will have been drilled into old people’s brains by the mainstream media.
16. The GOP Has Weak Arguments Against Hillary
Recently, someone sent me a link with a video from the Stop Hillary.com PAC. The video portrayed her 2017 “inauguration.” The voice-over was Hillary taking the presidential oath of office while the following words were flashed on the screen: Whitewater, Vince Foster, Travelgate, Rose Law Firm, and Benghazi. Then as Hillary finishes the oath saying, “So help me God,” the words “So help us” flash on the screen.
Along with the video, here is the mission statement of the Stop Hillary PAC:
Make sure Hillary Clinton never becomes president! America can't survive another team back in the White House. In 2016, it will be too late to stop Hillary. We've got to hold her accountable right now. Stop Hillary PAC was created for one reason only -- to save America from the destructive far-left, liberal cancer created by Bill and Hillary Clinton that's trying to corrupt America. Stand with Stop Hillary PAC today to take a stand for America's future and STOP Hillary dead in her tracks.
Now, does any thinking Republican really believe that dredging up 90’s era scandals is going to stop Hillary? (Benghazi is different but unfortunately the mainstream media and general public have lost interest, and by 2016 it will have as much negative impact on her as Travelgate.)
If these arguments are the best the “Stop Hillary movement” can muster, than it is time for some new arguments.
Because of reasons 1 – 16, and in spite of the fact that Hillary is extremely polarizing and travels with a lot of baggage, she is still poised to win in 2016 because frankly, there is no one who can stop her. Unless, as stated at the beginning, there are unforeseen cataclysmic national events that dramatically alter the current economic and political landscape or Hillary has major health issues and drops out even before she gets in.
For the record, I am not in favor of any of the above options. The best I can hope for is that the presidential election campaign in 2016 will be fair, clean and without the blatant media bias that tipped the scales for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
But since we are talking about Hillary as the potential first woman president, and a rekindled Clinton media love affair, good luck with fair and clean!