Why the Polls are Grim for Real Cuts in Spending
I’ve been wading through the multiple polls regarding Wisconsin’s action against collective bargaining vs. the levers pulled for the republicans in the 2010 election and am disheartened because its not just in Wisconsin, its now showing up in Washington DC regarding the republicans, the two week budget extension, and the polls coming out for the action to balance the federal problem.
I’ve come to the conclusion that the Tea Party which includes disaffected conservatives, true independents and democrats came together to fight Obamacare because it was a one-shot: it raised taxes (which irritated the conservatives), it took away choice (which irritated the independents) and it didn’t do enough to go to single payor (so the few tea party democrats joined in) – all creating the perfect venue for a cross-party issue to rally behind. Thus instead of being the rocket booster phase to the conservative take back of the republican rocket, it masks merely the same old divisions of republicans/democrats/independents that divide on social issues if asked. Which leads to the idea – is collective bargaining and fiscal cuts the new code words for the same social issues that we have been divided upon since the beginning of the 20th Century (1900′s for those that went to Wisconsin public schools and are in the 33% math range).
Between the numerous polls out now, even Rassmussen has it that collective bargaining “rights” are tipped toward the sacrosanct. Uh-oh.
The macrolevel view polling – that of the federal budget – and what would “you” cut – is even worse with foreign aid having the support of 42% of people (better not cut THAT), and poor Cantor can’t even get ~roughly~ $350 million dollars out of the budget for Planned Parenhood, let alone going after the BIGGEST resource HOG which is social security/medicare that had a support rate of 78%. A few brave hearts said it was ok to nibble at the edges such as means testing and increasing the age to 69 by the year 2075(!) to receive benefits.
Good grief. Its no wonder that rumors of House Majority Leader Boehner told President Obama that there would be no blowback if the President stood up and took a stand on pairing back entitlements, that leadership was needed.
Leadership is needed, and unfortunately its us in the mirror, and we’re fleebagging it out to 2075 to make hard choices. Talk about wimps.
Which brings me to the polling.
Having a Bachelor of Science degree in Political Science from Arizona State University, one of my classes was Polling 101. Well, that’s the cliff note title of the class whose real name was Statistics in the Political Process. I remember having to devise a poll question – go out and ask it, gather the results, then change the question (albeit keeping the same premise) around, go out and gather results. Wow! What a difference a few words make and placement of order of those words in the question.
Now I’m assuming Rassmussen vs. Qunnipac have done due diligence and their polling statistics can withstand the test of time. Combine those numbers with our inherent Not-in-My-Pocket-Book-Issue narcissism and it begs the question: What are the tea party conservative republicans who were swept to power in the 2010 anti-tax, small government tidal wave supposed to do RIGHT NOW with the debt limit coming up for renewal by the end of the month?