The Broken Political Equation
I confess, it makes zero sense to me.
I’ve done the math and the political calculus keeps coming back a broken equation.
In general, if the strategic political forces are aligned properly, then the tactical level concerns resolve themselves. This mathematical rule in politics (it is very close to applied chaos theory) regularly produces victory for those applying the rule.
There are oh so very many outright political violations that irrationalism – an identifiable and documented strain of ideologies, among them, fascism — can only explain the behavior of the White House and the House and Senate leadership.
The following political actions are simply not rational:
1. Spend more than a trillion dollars, at least $1.25 Trillion, on a new health care entitlement: $1 trillion for the house bill, plus the $247 billion for the doctor Medicare fix. This new entitlement is being pushed at a time when global financial capitals believe America is bankrupt. For those who do not know, we have printed $1 Trillion in U.S. currency in the last year, to buy our own T-Bills, to finance our $1.4 Trillion deficit – which has grown by a trillion dollars in one year. By spending another trillion dollars, the world’s financial leaders are being told to go pound sand.
2. Republicans and independents rank spending and the deficit as their one of their top concerns: go pound sand.
3. Seniors are concerned about cuts to Medicare: go pound sand.
4. Americans in the toughest economic climate in decades do not want their taxes raised to pay for more spending: go pound sand.
5. Pro-life Democrats and the Catholic Church and legions of evangelicals — many of whom want some health care reform — cannot stomach taxpayer financed or guaranteed abortions: go pound sand.
6. Second Amendment groups are concerned about electronic health records documenting gun ownership: go pound sand.
7. Independent and Republican voters have great concerns about increasing the power and influence of government over their lives: go pound sand.
8. Americans worried about financing a new entitlement for health care being accessed by illegal immigrants: go pound sand.
9. Americans will be forced to buy health insurance, and Americans hate that. Just ask Frank Luntz.
10. In the greatest and most spontaneous out pouring of American political activism since the Vietnam War, the White House and House and Senate Democratic Leadership has chosen to ridicule it as an “angry mob” and ignored it.
11. The divisiveness of the health care fight will leave its implementation, should irrationality rein, impossibly difficult — sabotaged along every step, by every political force violated.
12. The American business community opposes it outright, and for all the talk about pro-business Democrats, the White House is attacking the U.S. Chamber of Commerce as public enemy number one. And now almost every business group opposes the House health bill, imagine that?
It is simply impossible to violate so many voter’s cherished concerns and not be struck down by God-like lightening, now or in the future.
It is easy to ridicule the strategic political posture the Democratic Party has put itself in over health care. For they are being irrational in not just strategic ways, but also tactical: why is the U.S. House voting first?
Why are its vulnerable members going to walk the plank, again, prior to the Senate?
Probably because U.S. House Members do not know that you can filibuster the motion to proceed in the Senate — meaning that if the Republicans stick together, just one Democratic or Independent Senator voting against ending the filibuster will mean the U.S. Senate does not even proceed to the bill. Think of it like defeating the rule in the House. But the margin of error is one U.S. Senator.
When Senator Reid decided to leave Senator Snowe at the altar by going with his public option, she was asked what would Senator Reid have to change to bring her back, and her response was — he’d have to change all of it.
The only real rationale for deciding to march your troops on to a mine field without clearing it first is if you know you are going to take losses and don’t really care — note to Blue Dogs — your leadership wants you dead.
And some believe that just by bringing up health care the base will be happy even if the bill dies. This is really just another way of saying those who will lose their election over this are acceptable losses to feed to our base — note to Blue Dogs — your leadership wants you dead.
Senator Reid needs the base for his re-election fight, since his approval ratings are death like. So Senator Reid is asking his fellow Democrats to act against their own interests, despite the fact that he thinks he is acting in his own interest.
In fact, the liberals likely see health care as a political enema for their party. Every member of their caucus who is concerned about any of the issues listed above, after all, is not a real liberal. Health care will be a great bodily cleaning for the liberals. Those objecting to being cleaned are obviously to be treated with disdain and ostracized. Those being expelled and cleaned from the body politic must be told everything is going to be OK, and kind words whispered in their ears; while harsh words and hard laughter is used behind closed doors. These members to be cleaned are like followers at the Jonestown Kool-Aid club. Drink up men and women of faith. Let’s all see what awaits, together.
But the consequences of irrational behavior are in direct relation to the degree of irrational behavior. And this degree of irrational political behavior is off the scale, the graph paper is too small to chart it.
For many, this is going to be like watching stock car races to see the crashes. But, given the leadership of the House and Senate have gone about and made it their business to dismantle every known safety device prior to the race, there will be fatalities.
But there are a group who could save the organism known as the Democratic caucus, and they are straining to prevent it from killing itself, and killing the health bill is the quickest route to saving the caucus, and saving themselves.
In the Senate, voting against cloture on the motion to proceed — allowing the filibuster to continue and never letting the bill come up — will save every Democratic Senator facing re-election a month of tough votes, on every thermonuclear issue in American politics today. Issues like guns, abortion, taxes, immigration, spending and deficits.
You know, acting rationally, in their own self-interest.