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Richard Lowry writes of the five reasons ObamaCare may not pass (below) and I have added four more, after Lowry’s five:
1. Public Revulsion — see buying of votes and Dems tanking polling data.
2. Stupak — see the hard core dozen Dem pro-lifers.
3. Who Pays? — see the unions that hate the fact their health plans will be hit with a big tax.
4. Blue Dog Vote-Yes-Fatigue — as election year approaches, Dems begin to see that the election dynamics have gone from bad to worse.
5. The Left — the progressives are angry and are only waiting the outcome of the conference to determine if they will “kill the bill” or not, but some are, for reasons that mostly involve the public option, ready to kill the bill.
And here are four more:
6. Immigration — the Hispanic caucus said is facing a vote to betray their own constituents, and they simply may not do it, because of the enforcement language that bans illegals (or tries) from getting health benefits. From FireDogLake: Hispanic Caucus leaders have said “it would be ‘impossible’ to vote for any measure that denies undocumented immigrants health care.”
7. No Conference — if, and this is a very big if, any single GOP Senator objects to the appointment of the conferees then there will be no House-Senate conference. This means the House has two options,
a) pass the Senate bill as is, which is very doubtful for the foregoing reasons, or
b) amend the bill and send it back to the Senate where we all get a second bite at the apple.
8. Finally, the very small margin of error in the House. Add in the eleven Representatives who have announced their retirement — and the numbers are even tougher. There are 60 Representatives who signed the no public option, I will vote no letter. There are 64 Representatives who voted for the Stupak amendment. Who knows how many Representatives the unions can deliver against the Cadillac health plan tax?
And then there is this assessment from the left wing FireDogLake:
“There are probably 25-30 House Democrats who, for whatever reason, won’t vote for any health care bill. That leaves a very small margin of error to lose Democrats on any of the above issues. And of course, if they are satisfied, they risk losing 1 or 2 Democrats on the razor-thin margins in the Senate, which would also sink the bill.
I wouldn’t etch final passage in stone just yet…”
9. The Left Wakes Up to the Fact they were Rolled: Some on the left see things clearly. They got rolled on abortion, immigration, the public option, the medicare buy-in, the individual mandate to buy health insurance, while insurers and hospitals get billions and their stock prices spike upward to one year highs, after the Senate vote. As time passes, it will be clear to the Progressives that unless they can impact the course of this bill — even if it means killing it — they will never be taken seriously on health care ever again. They get rolled, and they do not do anything to stop being rolled. So, the Dem leadership will listen politely, and roll them again and again and again.