The NPR poll early in the political season discovered this jewel of predictive election results: the generic ballot in the more than 60 swing House seats NPR’s pollsters identified.
Not surprisingly, the generic ballot in these swing districts, NPR found, indicated a wave that would result in the end of Speaker Pelosi.
Now, another extensive poll has found even worse generic ballot numbers inside swing U.S. House seats for the Dems.
The numbers are not pretty.
The Dems will not only be defeated, they will be, to quote Von Clausewitz from On War, defeated “in detail.”
After this defeat (and even now for those whose are experiencing the scales falling from their eyes — too late) the ever-ringing-hollow-cries from the two Jonathans at the New Republic and the E.J. Dionnes of the ObamaCare-at-all-costs-crowd, will be seen for what they were during the ObamaCare debate, and for what they are now: victims or proponents (depending on your view) of some mass political delusion that infected their mind and soul.
And include in that group former President Clinton (who now says he was wrong about the popularity of ObamaCare) and Robert Shrum.
So, here is the extent of the political equivalent of the Darwin Awards that will be given out in early November, or, if you prefer, the ObamaCare political BDA (bomb damage assessment):
“We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming.”
Swing states like Ohio are seeing this 17% generic ballot delta being expressed in the state-wide Dem collapse.
A 17% generic ballot lead for the GOP in these U.S. House swing districts means — newsflash — if these numbers hold, it’s over.
For those who continue to deny reality about the impact of ObamaCare on the Dems, you should know that of all the things that make independent voters the most angry this election cycle, their number one beef is ObamaCare.
What could change to make these numbers better for the Dems? Realistically, very little.
Most plausible October surprise type events, like a second financial crisis either triggered by the collapsing dollar or by the stock market, would likely hurt, not help, the Dems.
Even if aliens revealed themselves on a global scale, it would likely hurt the Dems.
Most scenarios of any realistic or even unrealistic October surprise, would hurt, not help the Dems.
One thing that will help the Dems, however, is if Senator McConnell can’t figure out a way to keep the Senate in session until mid-October.
Notwithstanding the obvious risk to the republic of Congress being in session for another three weeks, if the Dems numbers improve, it will be because the GOP let the Dems go home to campaign early.