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FL-15 Bill Posey (R)

Remaining Safely Republican

As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2 Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for) any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.The statewide party affiliation is:

Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%

Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%

Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%

Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%

Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17, 19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration. Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and 14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of congressional and legislature representation.

Florida 15

Incumbent Status

Incumbent: Bill Posey, R

First Elected: 2008 (1st term)

Last Elected: (%)

Incumbent Status: Running for re-election

Race Forecast: Republican Favored

2008 Results

Bill Posey (R) – 191,341 – 53.1%

Stephen Blythe (D) – 151,031 – 41.9%

Frank Zilaitis (X) – 14,228 – 4%

Trevor Lowing (X) – 3,472 – 1%

2008 Funding

Posey: Funding Received – $836,356.00, Spent – $620,912.00, Remaining Cash – $215,441.00

Blythe: Funding Received – $100,458.00, Spent – $95,331.00, Remaining Cash – $5,128.00

District Statistics (2000 Census)

2006 Voter Registration: 36D/43R/21I

2006 Results: 56%/44% (Dave Weldon-R wins)

Population: 639,295

Under 18: 22%, Over 65: 20%

Married: 58.0%

Non-Hispanic White: 78%, Black: 7%, Hispanic: 11%, Asian: 2%

Foreign Born: 9.1%, Language other than English: 15.5%

Median Household Income: 39,397, Owner Occupied Housing: 73%, Income above $200k: 1.9%

White Collar: 58.4%, Blue Collar: 22.2%, Services: 19.4%

Bachelor’s Degree: 22%, Graduate Education: 7.8%

Civilian Veterans: 96,640

Party Contact Info

In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-15 includes parts of Osceola, Brevard and Indian River counties.

Osceola County web site

Brevard County web site

Indian River County web site

Florida GOP web site

State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations

James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President

Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)

Florida TaxWatch

FreedomWorks – Florida

Analysis

FL-15 was Dave Weldon’s district, prior to his retirement in 2008. State Senator Bill Posey ran to replace him, and won easily. The Democrats originally planned to compete for this district, but when Col. Paul Rantacore dropped out of the race, then reentered, much confusion resulted. In the end, Rantacore lost to Dr. Steve Blythe in the primary and the Democrat external resources abandoned the district. Posey was able to easily win the district, despite spending well under the typical minimum of $1M needed to win as a first term representative. This race was notable by the almost complete lack of TV advertising by Bill Posey, so most of the district doesn’t have a clue what he looks like. Note that Bill Posey spent only about 75% of his funds to win the race, while his competitor was seriously underfunded. Baring major misstep or scandal by Bill Posey, this district will remain in GOP hands indefinitely.

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