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FL-01, Jim Miller (R)

The safest GOP seat in Florida

As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2 Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for) any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.The statewide party affiliation is:

Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%

Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%

Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%

Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%

Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17, 19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration. Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and 14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of congressional and legislature representation.

Florida 01

Incumbent Status

Incumbent: Rep. Jeff Miller, R

First Elected: 2001 (3rd full term)

Last Elected: 2006 (68.54%)

Incumbent Status: Running for re-election

Race Forecast: Safe Republican

2008 Results

Jeff Miller (R) – 228,435 – 70.1%

James Bryan (D) – 97,211 – 29.8%

2008 Funding

Miller: Funding Received – $374,347.00, Spent – $324,855.00, Remaining Cash – $56,389.00

Bryan: Funding Received – $18,784.00, Spent – $18,358.00, Remaining Cash – $424.00

District Statistics (2000 Census)

2006 Voter Registration: 35D/49R/16I

2006 Results: 68%/32%

Population: 639,295

Under 18: 24%, Over 65: 13%

Married: 55.2%

Non-Hispanic White: 78%, Black: 14%, Hispanic: 3%, Asian: 2%

Foreign Born: 3.9%, Language other than English: 6.6%

Median Household Income: 36,738, Owner Occupied Housing: 71%, Income above $200k: 1.3

White Collar: 57.1%, Blue Collar: 25.0%, Services: 17.9%

Bachelor’s Degree: 20%, Graduate Education: 7.2%

Civilian Veterans: 104,831

Party Contact Info

In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-01 includes Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, and Washington counties.

Escambia County web site

Santa Rosa County – No web site available

Okaloosa County web site

Walton County – No web site available

Holmes County – No web site available

Washington County web site

Florida GOP web site

State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations

James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President

Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)

Florida TaxWatch

FreedomWorks – Florida

Analysis

Jeff Miller has held this seat since 2001, when he replaced “Mornin Joe” Scarborough. Jim Bryan was a new opponent, and suffered the same embarrassing drubbing as the 2006 opponent due to significant underfunding. The Democrats didn’t even try, though they DID field a candidate, something the Republicans didn’t bother to do in other Florida districts. This district is about as safe as they get, and will remain under Republican control indefinitely.

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