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FL-02, Allen Boyd (D) a potential target in 2010 and beyond

If it wasn't for Tallahassee, this district would be Red

As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2 Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for) any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.

The statewide party affiliation is:

Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%

Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%

Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%

Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%

Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17, 19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration. Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and 14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of congressional and legislature representation.

Florida 02

Incumbent Status

Incumbent: Rep. Allen Boyd, D

First Elected: 1996 (6th term)

Last Elected: 2006 (%)

Incumbent Status: Running for re-election

Race Forecast: Safe Democrat

2008 Results

Allen Boyd (D) – 215,627 – 61.9%

Mark Mulligan (R) – 132,555 – 38.1%

2008 Funding

Boyd: Funding Received – $1,338,925.00, Spent – $683,121.00, Remaining Cash – $655,804.00

Mulligan: Funding Received – $32,488.00, Spent – $29,150.00, Remaining Cash – $3,338

District Statistics (2000 Census)

2006 Voter Registration: 55D/32R/13I

2006 Results: Unopposed

Population: 639,295

Under 18: 22.8%, Over 65: 12.0%

Married: 51.3%

Non-Hispanic White: 72%, Black: 22%, Hispanic: 3%, Asian: 1%

Foreign Born: 3.7%, Language other than English: 6.5%

Median Household Income: 34,718, Owner Occupied Housing: 68.4%, Income above $200k: 1.4

White Collar: 61.7%, Blue Collar: 20.6%, Services: 17.7%

Bachelor’s Degree: 24%, Graduate Education: 9.8%

Civilian Veterans: 75,599

Party Contact Info

In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-02 includes Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Taylor, Suwannee, Lafayette, and Dixie counties.

Bay County web site

Jackson County web site

Calhoun County No Website available

Gulf County No Website available

Franklin County No Website available

Liberty County No Website available

Gadsden County web site

Leon County web site

Wakulla County web site

Taylor County No Website available

Suwannee County No Website available

Lafayette County No Website available

Dixie County web site

Florida GOP web site

State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations

James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President

Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)

Florida TaxWatch

FreedomWorks – Florida

Analysis

I give the Republicans credit for at least running a candidate this year. It was a waste of time and money, but it showed some guts. This is a heavy majority Democrat district and outspent the Republican 20 to 1. This district includes both the state capitol and Florida State University, meaning both the public employees and academic employees are part of the electorate. Interestingly, this district DID vote for Bush in both 2000 (51-46) and 2004 (54-45). In 2008 that flipped to a 56-44 advantage to Obama, due exclusively to heavy turnout in Leon county alone (91,000 of Obama’s 158,000 votes), with depressed Republican turn out over 2004 in the remaining counties. Note that the black demographic of this district is also no different from FL-01, meaning that Obama did very well with whites in Leon county. The largest county is Leon, which includes Tallahassee. The second largest is Bay County which includes Panama City, and turned out for McCain 70-29. This is one of those districts that could be targeted, especially when Allen Boyd retires. The demographics of the district are almost identical to FL-01, and the Democrat concentration is in a single (though highly populated) county (Leon). However, ALL of the other counties lean Republican, and their combined population does exceed that of Leon county. If looking for a strategy, then I would recommend finding ways to strengthen the Republican Party of Leon County and addressing the smaller counties, 7 of which have no website.

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