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FL-04, Ander Crenshaw (R)

Should be safe until he retires

As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2 Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for) any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.

The statewide party affiliation is:

Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%

Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%

Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%

Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%

Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17, 19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration. Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and 14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of congressional and legislature representation.

Florida 04

Incumbent Status

Incumbent: Rep. Ander Crenshaw, R

First Elected: 2000 (4th term)

Last Elected: 2006 (69.67%)

Incumbent Status: Running for re-election

Race Forecast: Safe Republican

2008 Results

Ander Crenshaw (R) – 220,023 – 65.2%

Jay McGovern (D) – 117,557 – 34.8%

2008 Funding

Crenshaw: Funding Received – $635,873.00, Spent – $438,083.00, Remaining Cash – $197,790.00

McGovern: Funding Received – $130,101.00, Spent – $115,546.00, Remaining Cash – $14,554.00

District Statistics (2000 Census)

2006 Voter Registration: 40D/43R/17I

Population: 639,295

Under 18: 24.4%, Over 65: 11.0%

Married: 56.0%

Non-Hispanic White: 78%, Black: 14%, Hispanic: 4%, Asian: 2%

Foreign Born: 5.8%, Language other than English: 9%

Median Household Income: 43,947, Owner Occupied Housing: 69.3%, Income above $200k: 2.2

White Collar: 64.8%, Blue Collar: 21%, Services: 14.1%

Bachelor’s Degree: 24%, Graduate Education: 7.9%

Civilian Veterans: 82,606

Party Contact Info

In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-04 includes parts of Leon, Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton, Columbia, Union, Baker, Nassau, and Duval counties.

Leon County web site

Jefferson County web site

Madison County No Website available

Hamilton County No Website available

Columbia County No Website available

Union County No Website available

Baker County No Website available

Nassau County web site

Duval County web site

Florida GOP web site

State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations

James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President

Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)

Florida TaxWatch

FreedomWorks – Florida

Analysis

Crenshaw has held this seat since 2000. In 2002 and 2004, he ran unopposed; however in 2006 and 2008 the Democrats started making him defend the seat. This district includes most of Jacksonville, the rural counties of north Florida, then runs west and picks up a small eastern slice of Tallahassee. While this district is pretty evenly split in party affiliation, Crenshaw has not had a serious challenge to date. Note that he spent less than $500,000 to retain the seat, and his opponent was underfunded. He won in 2006 with 70% of the vote and this year with 65%, meaning he is getting a decent share of Democrat votes as well. This is a district that should remain safely in the GOP, until Crenshaw retires. When he does, however, we will need to field a strong candidate and spend money to retain the seat, unless the 2010 census results changes the party affiliation in favor of the Republicans.

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