Like probably some of you, these days I alternate between hope and despair. I obsessively wait for the polls, and turn away in disgust as the new batches roll in. The amount of new D-affiliated pollsters using their surveys as psychological warfare, along with willing statistical wizards ready to utilize those polls to demoralize our side, has been tremendously sapping of my willpower. With less than 48 hours to go until we get the early sense of the voting results, I am looking at some of the final polls.
CNN just released their final poll (pdf) which is actually pretty decent despite the 49-49 result. The likely voter sample is 41% Dem 30% Rep.
NBC final poll (pdf) has us down 48-47. The non indies are 31% Dem 26% Rep but the more telling part is 37% Conservative 25% Liberal which is way oversampling Liberals and undersampling Conservatives.
ABC/Wapo pre-final poll also has us down 49-48. Their sample is 33% Dem 29% Rep
Pew final poll (pdf) has Obama winning 50-47. What is more telling there is not there 36% Dem 32% Rep sample but that they voted 46-33 for Obama in 2008 which makes it 6 points more pro-Obama sample than the actual 2008 electorate.
Every national poll is that way. Either they are right and the voters who will turn out will actually be more democratic, almost similar to the 2008 levels (if not worse according to some of these), or we manage to push through their web of deceit and reclaim what should be ours. Less than 48 hours remain.