I’m going to call it.
Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential nominee will be Tim Kaine, Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
I’m perfectly open to being wrong, but I do not think I am.
Both Obama and McCain really need someone with executive experience. That rules out Joe Biden, who was raised by the wolves in the Senate.
That leaves Evan Bayh, Tim Kaine, and wild card Kathleen Sebelius.
It won’t be Sebelius because the nation is not ready for both a black man and white woman on one ticket. Likewise, it’d be a slight to Hillary Clinton. And it’d start the abortion conversation all over again.
It won’t be Bayh because Obama cannot compete in Indiana, Bayh never helped Democrats win Indiana when he was governor, and Bayh backed Hillary Clinton. Disloyalty will cause Bayh problems.
Likewise, as with Joe Biden, picking Bayh will highlight Obama’s inexperience. In fact, Bayh is too stark a contrast from Obama, even more so than Biden. And both open Obama to more comparisons with George W. Bush — needing gravitas.
That leaves Tim Kaine.
Kaine is a governor so Obama gets the perception of experience.
Kaine is from a potential swing state, which helps Obama potentially on that front.
Kaine also won’t show up Obama. With Biden or Bayh, Obama would stand in their shadow. Not so with Kaine. Kaine makes Obama look like a pro.
Again, I could be wrong. But I think I’m right.
UPDATE: Of course, if it is not Kaine, it will be Bayh.