I've been saying privately for a few days, and to a number of you on email, that my sense was a shift back toward John McCain. Today's Gallup poll, along with a host of other polls, shows that.
Here is the safe rule for this election: ignore the numbers, but watch the trends.
The trend had been toward Obama. It is now toward McCain. Joe the Plumber resonates with people. ACORN resonates with people. People are concerned and worried about the future. As a result, at this point in the campaign, these ancillary issues have a real impact.
Be encouraged, but also be realistic. It does take a while for these national trends to show up at the state level. Likewise, hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions, have already voted.
Nonetheless, there remains an election. It is not over. It was never over. We know where we stand. We are behind. But the wind has shifted in our favor.
Update: A reliable friend tells me some of the swing states are starting to show the same trend. Likewise, Georgia appears now secure for McCain and Saxby Chambliss.