I am reminded this evening of a friend a few weeks ago who chastised me for chuckling over an interview request I'd gotten. I view myself as just me, a now thirty-something married guy in Macon, Georgia who blogs for a living. Apparently, some people regard me as something more than that. I'm very, very flattered. But occasional I forget this and get stunned by various reactions to things I've said or done.
There's a case of this brewing tonight. Two weeks ago the Washington Post asked for predictions on how the election would turn out. They were due last Monday. Mine was, in essence, a narrow popular vote win for Obama and an electoral college win. Likewise, I saw the Democrats gaining in both the House and Senate, but not sixty seats.
I've got some good friends who now want to string me up for predicting that. Somehow it's apparently demoralizing for me to have predicted that. I suppose I'm just not really conscious of the fact that what I say can have that great an impact. I'm very flattered by those who think it does and I'll try to be more conscious of it in the future.
Let's see where we are a week after I submitted by predictions, fully a week and a half after making them. I suspect I'm still right in the House, but the party ID numbers swinging in the recent polling suggests the GOP will not lose the 34 seats I predicted, but somewhere around 20 to 25. The Senate is pretty much in accord with where I was. But the Presidential race has, in fact, shifted.
Here is where I stand two days before the election: if McCain wins Pennsylvania, he's the President. If McCain loses Pennsylvania, he is not the President. It's that simple.
A week and a half ago as I wrote my predictions, the poll trends that had been creeping toward McCain stopped. Likewise, the McCain campaign totally dropped message. I could not fathom that anything would change. But by the grace of God, we've been handed a perfect opportunity to pick up Pennsylvania: Obama's comments on coal.
Sarah Palin has already gone on offense with the issue. It's a great issue for her to seize on. She knows energy.
So there you have it. A week ago I turned in a prediction that Obama would have a narrow win. Frankly, as I've said for a while now, it is still his to lose. That does not mean he will win, but the odds are in his favor.
What can we do about it? Hammer home the energy message. Get on the phones and phone bank for your local GOP. Go vote and get your friends and family to go vote. This is Obama's race to lose. Let's help him do it and you can prove me wrong in the process.