There could be a serious upset in a congressional special election this year and it is going under the radar. John Fund took notice of it yesterday.
David Harmer is the Republican running in a special election to fill Ellen Tauscher's seat in Congress. The Democrat, Lt. Governor John Garamendi, is favored to win, but is only polling 41% to Harmer's 34%.
Interestingly, poling in the area shows the favorability of the GOP is skyrocketing in that district. Nonetheless, the GOP would rather support a pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion, pro-union, ACORN supported Dede Scozzafava in New York's 23rd Congressional District than spend any time or money on David Harmer's race.
Having dug into the race, I can't really add to what John Fund reported. The district is a Democrat leaning district, but the negativity toward the Democrats in the district is overwhelming.
David Harmer is a good candidate, but he needs money to get across the finish line. With the NRCC anticipating a black eye in New York's 23rd, they won't fully engage this race because they are fearful of two black eyes. Don't get me wrong — the NRCC has done some work helping the candidate get up to steam, but right now the focus and money is going to Dede.
Polling, however, suggests this might really be the upset John Fund thinks it is. If you are a California Republican or anyone else who wants to take credit away from the GOP establishment by helping get a good guy elected without their help, you might want to consider sending David Harmer a few bucks or go lend a hand.
When these seats start falling into GOP hands, it will thoroughly destroy the last ounces of political capital that Barack Obama has.