Cross Posted from http://blog.freedomist.info/2008/11/27/mumbai/
William R Collier Jr.The American Freedomist
Pakistan promises to aid India
Stating that India should not jump to conclusions Hussain Hariqqa, Pakistan's Ambassador to the US, promised Pakistan's support in the fight against terror.
This more conciliatory tone is encouraging. If rogue elements within the ISI it is probable that the Pakistani government will take more serious measures to root them out.
Al Quedas' gambit was to provoke Conflict and undermine Pakistan's stability- assuming that this was Al Queda (we are still give this s confidence level Of 4 out of 5). If this is true, the gambit is probably not over.
Assuming that the Pakistani government continues to be sympathetic the ball is in the Indian government's court. So far, the Indian government is painting a picture of foreign involvement and could conceivably take this opportunity to settle unresolved issues with Pakistan. This seems illogical but it IS possible.
We will continue to cover this with more analysis.
MORE ENCOURAGING NEWS- Indian Parliamentarian, Congress Spokesman Rajiv Shukla Thursday said that none of the Central and Maharashtria governments has so far said anything about the linkage of Pakistan with Mumbai terrorist attacks. In a telephonic interview with Geo News, the Indian Parliamentarian said that such impression is being created by the Indian media which should be avoided.
He said that “both India and Pakistan are victims of terrorism and instead of blaming each other they should cooperate in defeating the common enemy”.
This now laces Pakistan in a tough position, as already noted, in that they will have to face a terrorist insurgency in the Kashmir border area as well as in the tribal lands near Afghanistan.
The crisis in Mumbai is not over yet, however, and now there is talk about the 9 hour delay before Indian forces entered the Taj hotel along with a possible link to the Tamil Tigers, in Sri Lanka, who do have a known history of mounting low grade naval operations. It is possible that LTTE, the Tamil Tigers organizations, assisted the terrorists.
What seems clear is that the terrorists want everyone to THINK Pakistan or the ISI were involved. The Indian Prime Minister is now talking in terms of tougher anti-terrorism laws and I can see a picture where the Indians blame the Tamils for supporting rogue elements if the Pakistanis give them cover by in some way admitting that native terrorists were involved and vowing to go after them with full force. The Pakistanis are talking in terms of being victims themselves of the same terrorism.
We are not ready yet to cancel our war warning, but we are much more optimistic about the end results of this action. The terrorists would like to take more action, but they may not be able to.
Earlier reports of some sort of gunfire and explosions in Karachi, Pakistan could just as likely have been a government operation against possible terrorist groups and so far there is a new blackout about the incident with no more news coming from that city.
Barring unforeseen events, which we must allow for, it appears that the Indian government is keeping its cool, the Pakistani government is being more conciliatory, and the gambit may have failed in its primary aims. Its secondary aims, of causing financial disruptions to India may meet with limited success but so far Asian and Indian stocks have not been adversely affected, perhaps tourism in Mumbai will be affected, but that has yet to be seen.
We issue a WAR WARNING for India and Pakistan with a LOW probability based on a potential visceral reaction by the Indian government, in response to popular outrage, which may not be amendable to logic or diplomacy.
The American Freedomist will be reviewing the POTENTIAL for an armed conflict between India and Pakistan over the Mumbai (Bombay) attacks.
“They are from across the border and perhaps from Faridkot, Pakistan. They tried to pretend that they were from Hyderabad,” Major General R.K. Hooda, leading the military operation to flush out the extremists, told reporters.I am going to be monitoring diplomatic channels and checking with military intel sources as well as news sources in the region to asses the possibility for a war between India and Pakistan.
We issue a LOW War Warning as a precaution in view of the possible visceral reaction to this attack, not do to any specific intelligence on troop movements or activities. REPORT any news about this incident to [email protected] or use the comment feature.
We consider this to be a high threat to peace in the region and are looking for signs of troop movements, rhetoric from the Indian authorities, and possible rhetoric from Pakistan.
Possible de-escalating factors may include a statement of intent from Pakistan to renew efforts to combat terrorism in the troubled Kashmir area and to offer cooperation with Indian authorities, which while beneficial to Indian-Pakistani relations would further escalate tensions between the government and the population of Pakistan which tends to lean towards the terrorists in its sympathies overall.
This development complicates US activities in the region and places US and NATO forces in a nation that is land-locked and that is surrounded by more or less anti-US powers leaving only Pakistan as the AIR BRIDGE to Afghanistan. The purpose of the terrorists is to foment unrest in Pakistan, even at risk of war with India, and to thereby jeopardize the Air Bridge making continued deployment of US and NATO forces untenable.
This is not to say the strategy will work, but this is indeed the strategy.
We estimate, with 4 out 5 confidence, that Al Quada was behind this attack and that further attacks in the US or Indonesia are envisioned by the enemy.
The initial response to the crisis by the President Elect, who has gained the political leadership even before being sworn in, has been tepid and halting, a fact not lost on the enemy.
In a related story, warning of an Al Queda attack on New York Subways or Train stations are, in our estimation, a diversion from the real target but even with this in mind, US law enforcement and the military appear to continue to enjoy the upper hand in terms of tracking and stopping terrorist plots. Eventually, of course, this will fail and no doubt Al Quada wants to cause a failure.
An apparent COMITY of action between Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Al Queda is more likely a result of a shared belief that the new president will be uncertain in his responses and that now, during the transition, is the time to seek out ways to undermine the US.
US officials are no doubt shuttling between Islamabad and New Delhi in an effort to prevent a serious rupture between Pakistan and India, however viseral passions often trump the most logical and well intended diplomacy.