2010 is going to be a big year in politics in the both the UK and the US. 2010 might be one of those pivotal years the analysts will refer to for years to come. Then again it could all be a rather damn squib with only the politicos getting excited. Needless to say those who are interested in politics have a couple of things to look forward to next year.
The UK general election which has to be by early May, and of course, the mid-term US elections which will be a referendum on Obama and his socialist policies. Now the experts are convinced that the Democrats are going to suffer badly in Nov of 2010 and that Labour is going to get routed soundly in the UK.
However, a cynic might wonder if either of these two things are a forgone conclusion. The opposition, in both cases parties of the right are not necessarily offering much difference to what the parties in power offer. They are merely different people pretty much peddling the same thing. Instead of vastly differing policies of the past, they are merely minor variations of big government, meddling, expansionist beliefs that neither reduce the bureaucratic nor taxation burden on the public.
Solutions from the Republicans in the US and the Conservatives in the UK lack substance and backbone. Of course, the systems are different and should the Republicans do well, and take the House and the Senate, they will not be in complete charge like the Conservatives.
Opponents of the respective governments in charge have not been universally moved by the parties “of the right” either. Tea party members are just as annoyed with the wishy-washy Republicans candidates on offer as they are the Democrat incumbents. Likewise issues like the retreat on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and continued acceptance of climate change alarmism has hurt the reputation of the Conservative Party in the UK.
Now unlike in the UK, those who are not keen on the Democrats or Republicans do not have much choice on the ballot. In the UK people can vote for the United Kingdom Independence Party, the Liberal Democrats or a whole myriad of other third parties. There has been much speculation about the possibility of a third party in US to tap into the angst and frustration of the tea party movement. There is at least one third party (http://www.floridateaparty.us/index.html) set up in Florida to challenge both parities in 2010.
There is always the stay at homes who will vote for none of the above to express their frustration with the state of politics in both countries. The question is whether or not any of these will affect the outcome.
Could we see a hung parliament (no party with a majority) in the UK and the possibility of back-room dealing to create a government? Could we see third parties, desperate for power, finally getting place at the governing table. Who would pair with whom and how long such a coalition will last. Will the UK have a strong solid Conservative government with a large loyal majority or could the UK be in political chaos for some time to come?
In the US will the Republicans attract enough of the tea party vote for the party to take the House and the Senate as Dick Morris is predicting (http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2009/12/09/the-charge-of-the-280-dems/)? Or will we see the Republicans take the right, of whatever ilk, for granted and ignore their concerns once again.
The tea party movement may have the power to seriously influence the outcome of American elections. Or at least that is what some observers think. The Republicans would be foolish to assume that the tea party movement will help them deliver victory in 2010. Arrogance and political reality may just prevent the Republicans from bringing the tea party movement into their tent for the election.
Likewise David Cameron (http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/david-cameron-likely-britains-next-pm-but-he-may-yet-blow-the-chance/), who has yet to come up with a killer policy like Margaret Thatcher did with her council house purchase policy (allowing publically owned housing tenants to buy the houses they lived in) which proved hugely popular with working class voters, can not depend on every right-of-center voter in the UK. UKIP was very strong (http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/for-britain-these-are-interesting-times/) in the European elections and may be able to turn it into votes in the Westminster election.
2010 may be the year when the independent right hold the cards to help the mainstream right of center party gain power. Its whether or not they are willing to lend their vote merely to hurt the socialist parties holding onto power.
The Republicans and the Conservatives would be foolish to take their victories for granted. They might be doing better in the polls but the enthusiasm really isn’t there as much as it should be at this point in the election cycle.
In short those who love politics are going to love 2010.