Why the Election Won’t be so Bad for Republicans and Breaking that Northern Virginia Myth
It has amazed me as to how much Republican politicians, analysts, and pundits continue to concede the point that this is a Democratic year and we will be lucky if we make it out of this election with some dignity.
The reason its amazing is because it’s just not true!
Republicans better start acting like winners, and start showing the American people why their ideas and beliefs are the only way to pull the U.S. out of this so-called malaise.
First the American People have never elected a President as liberal and out of touch with everyday Americans as Barack Obama is. Never. Ohh they tried, (remember John Kerry, and Micheal Dukakis) but it never works. The American people are not majority liberal and the only time Democrats can manage to sneak into the White house is when they nominate southern “moderates”
Second Check out the national polling. In such a Democratic year Barack Obama cannot pull away. The The RCP aveage has Obama up by only 4.5 points. For most polls that’s in the margin of error. Ohh and Republicans always poll better in the fall (Ask Dukakis).
Third just take a look at the playing field. All we have to do is win Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado and its over, that coming from Karl Rove. If someone told you a while back “hey for the Republican to win the Presidency all he has to do is hold CO, VA, and OH.” You should respond by saying thats going to be a tough road for the Dems. The Demographics are on our side. Now I know, I know,… “but what about Northern Virginia, and Colorado is in blue tide”. Well let me tell you a secret, Demographics don’t change 16 points in four years! That would be whats necessary for Obama to win Virginia. I mean Jim Webb, a conservative Democrat with a military record could barley win in Virginia in the best year the Democrats will have in the next 30 years, all this while his opponent was running an inept campaign and calling people maccacca. How does that exactly translate into a shift that allows Obama to beat a war hero in Virginia in a Presidential election.
A side note on all of the Northern Virginia changing Demographics nonsense:
Virgina has 11 house seats, 9 of them won by President Bush in 2004 and 8 of them controlled by Republicans. This includes both of the Northern Virgina districts. Bush carried both booming districts in 2004, although some talk as if Republicans can’t compete there. Most importantly according to the Almanac of American Politics (Barone’s book) the districts that voted for President Bush increased population from 2000 to 2005 by 493 thousand, while the Kerry voting districts lost 5 thousand people!! And from 2000 to 2005 Northern Virginia grew by 220 thousand people while the rest of Virginia grew by 268 thousand! Meaning Northern Virginia will actually have less impact compared to the rest of the state in these elections then in 2000! One final note Eric Cantor’s 60 percent bush district grew almost as much as Tom Davis’s Northern Virgina district.
The point of all of this is we need to get our chins up and start acting like winners. Start showing moderates and independents why they voted with us before, and that we are still the most dominant force in American politics no matter how many George Soros’s give money to prop up empty suit Governors in Colorado and Virgina. If Obama’s campaign needs to come to our home field to beat us (Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, NC,) then we should welcome it. Democrats are in their own world thinking they are going to take Senate seats from us in Mississippi and North Carolina, so let them be delusional, its probably better that way. In many ways we have a lot of advantages this year lets start acting like we do.