Far be it from me to warn Democrats about impending election doom - frankly, I'd like to do nothing but increase the speed of the careening bus that will bring electoral disaster in 2010. But, from a purely 'political junkie' perspective, I continue to be amazed at the brazen acts of political suicide which appear to be the modus operandi not only on Capitol Hill, but also at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
The belief that President Obama will survive the passage of a health care reform bill, which polls show the vast majority of Americans oppose, is nothing short of pure folly. Should the Obamanation persist with 'cramming' health care reform down the throats of the American people, particular through the process of 'budget reconciliation,' but even in the instance of a revamped bill that substantively disregards Republican opposition, Obama's presidency will be over.
Three things will most certainly happen:
- the Tea Party movement will gather such strength and momentum that wholesale turnover of Congressional leadership will not only be possible, but will be guaranteed. Despite their best efforts to label 'Tea Partiers' as nothing but fringe elements, Democrats will learn what it was like for the British in 1775, when it was not a matter of whether political control would be lost over the growing patriotic masses but, simply, a matter of when.
- the President will be inviting a primary challenge, which will be accepted by Democrat moderates like Evan Bayh. Then, on the principle of one in, all in - you will likely see Hillary Clinton rethink her role in this Administration and whether 2012 presents her another opportunity.
- the President will seal his defeat in 2012 as the only means by which health care reform legislation can be reversed. The White House is ignoring that, even if Republicans have congressional majorities beginning in January, 2011, there will still be only one way to remove the presidential veto of any attempt to rescind the health care reform debacle, and that's to vote President Obama out of office in November, 2012. His election defeat will be the next action taken in the Tea Party 'two-step.' As part of their legislative miscalculation, Obama's election defeat will not be avoided by the ability to demonstrate the alleged efficacy of the health care bill, because its implementation is purposely delayed until after 2012. In other words, by delaying the implementation of health care reform, trying to be too cute by half in order to insulate themselves from electoral revolt in 2010, Democrats will have guaranteed that the fear of a government-run, socialist health care system (which would be addressed in 2010 election cycle) will survive 2010 and still be present in 2012 and motivate continued revolt against incumbents, namely President Obama. It will be all over.
WARNING: President Obama, it's been real. Pass this bill and start planning your Presidential Library.