This is not to say that none of the folks currently running have no chance of winning; if you run a good enough campaign - if your campaign is flexible, aggressive, focused, disciplined, anyone can win. One of the many lessons I've learned from the fiasco of 2008 is that the a priori declaration that Candidate X and only Candidate X can win an election is an act of stupidity and worse, is self-defeating.
But the reality is that some would be a harder sell than others.
I'm hoping Rick Perry leaps in because of this - among the people running now, and granted that he is not perfect (who the hell is?) he would be the GOP's "easiest sell" to the voters by far.
He has the executive experience and the record to prove it - Governor for 10 years of the nation's second largest state with the best record on job growth and development in the nation. Another cool fact is that the Democrats would have a hard time throwing the credit to the last Democrat Governor - especially since his predecessor was not only not a Democrat, but actually George W. Bush.
And even if "critics" point out that the Lt. Governor is more powerful in TX (which is arguable), he can point to the fact that he was Lt. Governor for a while - so he's got that covered too. Going further, he's got military experience - a 5 year veteran of the USAF and he's got significantly more communications skills than W.
Which brings us to the main chink in his armor - TX and the aforementioned George W. Bush. Will the American people be ready to give the Presidency to another Texan so soon after the last Texan left with approval ratings in the toilet? Again, I think his record in TX can take care of that ... and again, he can very firmly and respectfully say; "My name is James Richard Perry, not George Walker Bush."
Add all that to the fact that it's no secret that the Bush clan openly despises him (witness the endorsements of Kay Bailey Hutchison last year by so many Bushes and Bushies) and he can shake off the attachment quite easily.
And last, but not least, and note that this is extremely important to "moderate" (especially moderate female) voters, he "looks" Presidential.
To complete the ticket; if he can find a socially and fiscally conservative (important) African American or Hispanic running mate - ideally a veteran who's held flag rank with no skeletons in his (or her) closet, I think it'll be a ticket that'll keep the Left up at night. Does anyone know if General Kip Ward a Republican?