Although even Rasmussen has to say "It's California."
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Boxer attracts 45% of the statewide vote while Fiorina, her best-known possible Republican challenger, earns 41%. Seven percent (7%) say they’d vote for some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
In March, Boxer led Fiorina by nine, 47% to 38%.
Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable. However, a Democrat running in a heavily Democratic state like California is often able to overcome weak poll numbers.
Which is very true: but it's also Barbara Boxer. This is not a very good period of time to be reflexively supporting more taxes, less energy, and the imposition of health care rationing - and, given some of the topline results to this survey (MoE is 4.5%, by the way), you have to wonder how 'heavily Democratic' it is these days. On first reading, the results read as being more anti-incumbent than anything else: Fiorina isn't even formally in the race yet, although these numbers are certainly encouraging enough. Chuck Devore (who is in the race) is probably finding them encouraging, too; people in California just aren't happy with the status quo right now - and contra Rasmussen, you shouldn't ignore sub-50 ratings if you're a politician who wants to keep her job.
I'd assume that Senator Boxer is taking that into consideration, except, well.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.