(H/T: Instapundit) This one is speculative: while NJ-12 is only D+5, its incumbent is Rush Holt, who has held the seat for ten years now, with election margins in the 60s. On the other hand, that's also enough time to get sloppy; he's a good bit more liberal than you'd expect from somebody in a D+5 seat; and if this report is correct he's not handling well being on the other side from actual populists.
So... here's Mike Halfacre. Mayor of Fair Haven, running on fiscal responsibility (has lowered property taxes and reduced debt as Mayor), frankly looks better than Holt did with regard to access at Holt's own town hall. This isn't my old district when I was living in NJ, but I know the area: it's not infertile ground for Republicans. The fact that he's pro-choice will be a deal-breaker for some people reading this, which is of course their privilege.
If it's not a deal-breaker, keep an eye on this one. It may prove interesting.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.