Gallup: R+4 on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
(Via AoSHQ) Shift of eight points since July, which for Gallup represents the GOP ‘edging ahead.’ The current numbers are GOP/Democrats 48/44. And 52/30 among independents. And this represents registered voters, not likely ones. Gallup tried to caveat this one every way that it could, but has to conclude:
Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.
Particularly interesting is this amusing graph:
…and yes: the Democratic line does look uncannily like the trajectory of an airplane just after it has lost all power to the engines, mid-flight. A real shame that this didn’t come out last Friday, huh? There’s a bunch of Blue Dogs who probably would have appreciated the opportunity to factor this information into their long-term voting strategies.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.