Said caveats are: Internal poll, D+16 district, and Moran's still ahead by three. But a 44/41 Moran/Berry split at this stage is still noteworthy: add five points to Moran's total and he still polls under 50% - which means that he's vulnerable. I don't mind seeing a 40/38 split on 'try somebody new'/'keep Moran,' either.
Post-Massachusetts, it's no longer reasonable to assume that anybody on the Democratic side is too safe to be defeated: so keep an eye on this race. I've mentioned Matthew Berry before: if I was in his district I'd probably be supporting him in the primary right now, not least because he's been engaging the new social media (which is a pretentious way of saying 'he's actively working to get support'). And I can't [expletive deleted] stand Jim [expletive deleted] Moran. Watching that particular corrupt, anti-Semitic suckweasel go down in flames on Election Night would be a better present than a pony, and I've always wanted a pony.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.