The Greenberg/Carville-sponsored poll certainly does have a good deal to say about the current state of House races, albeit from as positive-towards-the-Democrats position (Hotline called it ‘sugary spin‘) as possible. For example, for all of the talk about how ‘cool’ the electorate was towards Republican incumbents the truth is that they’re averaging a 40/32 approval/disapproval rating, and that the generic Congressional vote went from 48/42 Republican/Democrat in 2010 to 50/41 R/D today (which is up from 46/44 R/D in March). And while the poll will happily tell you that Greenberg & Carville’s recommended message will shift that advantage down to an even-steven 45/45 R/D generic Congressional number, what they don’t mention is that the last time they polled this survey they were able to ‘turn’ a 46/44 R/D into 44/47 R/D. In other words: things have gotten subtly worse for the Democrats since March.
As Hotline said: sugary spin.
But the big numbers here are President Obama’s: he went from a 48/47 approval/disapproval rating in the surveyed districts to a 41/55 today. That… is a disaster; but not as much as one as the fact that both Perry and Romney beat Obama 49/45 and 49/43, respectively. Couple that with the aforementioned incumbent approval ratings, and… well. It is an article of faith among the Democrats that their problems with the electorate are solely due to their poor messaging; if nothing else, this election cycle should test that theory to destruction.
As for what the poll did not say: well, pretty much that at this rate having Obama show up to campaign for you will be seen as a punishment by this time next year. Which you probably knew already, if you watched this Freedomworks video done by RedState’s own Ben Howe:
…and no, that isn’t an attempt to change the subject. The above poll is the attempt to change the subject – or, more accurately, the attempt to change the subjects of the populace’s ire from Obama to the Republican House members who were elected to stop Obama from doing in 2011 and 2012 what Obama so incompetently did in 2009 and 2010. Which they have done. The Democrats absolutely hate the fact that Republicans were elected on a platform of saying “No,” particularly since “No” was the right answer – and, again, the Democratic pundit class believes in framing the way that a priest is supposed to believe in God. So if ‘framing’ tells the Democrats that they need to jettison the President (bizarre as that would sound to anyone from 2008 who was reading this) in order to try to get the House back – well, that’s what they’ll try to do.
Don’t let them.
Moe Lane (crosspost)