FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR
The fix is in on NY *state* redistricting?
I dunno. They’re certainly scurrying around like… things that scurry… in Albany tonight. This report suggests that the fix is in for the state legislature, and that Governor Cuomo is going to cave on his promise to support reform today, in exchange for promises of reform tomorrow; but it also suggests that the NY legislature has decided to let the courts design the Congressional maps, after all.
Which means… OK. Current breakdown is 21 Democrats, 8 Republicans. After this election, we’re looking at… OK, Hinchey is retiring and Turner is running for Senate, and their districts were erased. 20 Democrats, 7 Republicans. Assume that Hochul and Buerkle cancel each other out*. Still 20/7. Of the remaining Members of Congress, the two most vulnerable are Bishop and Owens, and I think that at least one of them is going to be tossed. So it’s reasonable to think that a 19/8 D/R result is very possible… and that even an 18/9 D/R one is not outside the realm of possibility. Which is to say, one where the NY Republican delegation somehow increases in size in the face of a two-seat CD loss, or at least stands pat.
I’m flabbergasted. Both at this scenario, and at the thought that state Democrats would sign off on it. Or, more accurately, just let it happen because it was getting in the way of protecting their own seats.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*Ann Marie Buerkle has no intention of tamely waiting for the axe to fall, of course. And her upset of the incumbent in 2010 was noteworthy even in an election cycle that had many, many noteworthy moments. So her situation is not exactly like that of Kathy Horchul, who is probably even now being advised not to sign up for any multi-year gym memberships.