New Indiana Poll Shows Virtual Tie for First Place
A new Indiana poll has just been released by the Republican polling firm Clout Research, and it shows a virtual tie for the top spot.Read More »
One of the more… interesting… beliefs that seems to have spread along the Online Left lately is that their forthcoming campaigning against Paul Ryan’s budget reforms (henceforth to be sneeringly dismissed as ‘Mediscare’) is a clear winner for them. And if you ask them why, the members of the Online Left who are smart enough to avoid saying “Because we think that the population of the USA is made up primarily of idiots*” will instead say “Because we’ve been winning special elections with that issue.”
…Really? OK. Let’s look at the special elections for the 112th Congress, then.
Below is a table of all six special House elections conducted to date: the asterisks represent races where the seat more or less no longer exists in a meaningful form due to redistricting (although, truth be told, that could be pretty much most seats at this point). Cook is, of course, the latest (08/02) Cook Political Report on House races.
|AZ-08||Giffords||Retired||Barber||R+4||Dem Kept||Likely D*|
|CA-36||Harman||Retired||Han||D+12||Dem Kept||Safe D|
|NV-02||Heller||Senate||Amodei||R+5||GOP Kept||Safe R|
|OR-01||Wu||Scandal||Bonamici||D+8||Dem Kept||Safe D|
With me so far? Good; let’s look at each race in turn.
So… Mediscare works! Except when it doesn’t. Which is apparently… all the time, particularly when it comes to flipping seats. Put another way: there’s a reason why the notoriously Democratic-leaning PolitiFact called “Republicans voted to end Medicare” the 2011 Lie of the Year. And it would seem that arguing otherwise doesn’t seem to have been very much practical help to Democrats in actual elections since the 112th Congress started…
Moe Lane (crosspost)
*It is not, by the way.